Flight Pro International’s Post

Good Wednesday morning, Limited ATC industrial action continues for portions of France through the 15th of June. Airports affected over the next few days are LFOB/LFBT and LFML. Overall disruptions remain at a low level with no planned teleconferences expected. NFFN continues to have a significant runway closure on the primary runway (02/20) during certain times of the day. NWWW is back open, however jet A1 fueling must be preauthorized. Normal ongoing ground delay program continues at SFO due to the closure of runway 10R/28L. Two weeklong range tropical outlook - expect intense heat to continue over Northern India into next week and over portions of central Mexico.  Low probabilities of TC development remain on both sides (Pacific/Atlantic) of Latin America for the next few weeks. Tropical outlook - West Pacific / Indian Ocean basin - no suspect areas. Eastern Pacific- Atlantic - all is quiet. US Severe weather outlook - marginal risks remain in place through the end of the work week with no significant severe weather outbreaks anticipated. Europe analysis - with the absence of any significant cold fronts and low-pressure areas, showers and thunderstorms will primarily be driven by daytime heating being aided by a broad upper-level trough that will extend from the UK to Northern Poland for the remainder of the work week. A fairly strong low-pressure area may begin to impact areas in the Northern North Sea during the weekend bringing a good chance for showers to this area. Finally, Sunday could be fairly stormy over Southeastern France into Switzerland with heavy rain and likely thunderstorms. Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotalweather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center,  weathernerds.org, Tomer polar/tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.

Good Friday morning, Jet A1 fuel issues continue at NWWW, Noumea New Caledonia, per notam A0832/24. Allen & Co's Sun Valley retreat is scheduled to run July 9th through the 13th this year. Have not seen any notams issued yet for this event at SUN. Expecting a very busy next 10 days over the US airspace according to the FAA. TRANSCON routes across Europe today and Saturday will be impacted significantly due to thunderstorms. Expect delays. Tropical outlook - West Pacific / Indian Ocean basin - no suspect areas. Eastern Pacific- Atlantic - not to concerned about invest area AL94 in the Western Caribbean Sea which will likely bring heavy rain and briefly gusty winds to Southeastern Mexico later on this weekend. Of more concern is invest area AL95, 1500 miles ESE of the Windward Islands moving West at 15 to 20 mph and could approach the lesser Antilles including Barbados by Monday. I have included a few images from the operational GFS and EURO models as possible outcomes and also a few images from the Ensemble models. Will have to keep a close eye on this next week. US Severe weather outlook - please see the latest plots from SPC for the next several days. Unfortunately, with a slight risk possible Sunday afternoon in the NE, this will likely create some travel issues with delays likely. Europe analysis - a regional severe weather event is expected on Saturday from Eastern France, the Alps and over to Poland in association with a short wave and a wavy frontal boundary. Super cells and bow echoes are anticipated with significant ATC reroutes likely. If you are flying TRANSCON across Europe on Saturday it might be best to go further North than normal to avoid expected delays on a day that will see very heavy traffic. Thunderstorms are expected over the same general areas on Sunday afternoon so more enroute delays can be expected. Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotalweather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center,  weathernerds.org, Tomer polar/tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.

Good Friday morning, Busy day expected in Europe today with over 31,000 flights. Expect this number to continue to increase, especially on Friday's as we approach late spring and summer. Current projections have 35,000 flights scheduled so far in late June on Friday's a 5.5 percent increase from last year. Military exercise BERSAMA SHIELD will take place in the Kuala Lumpur and Singapore FIRS from 0001z on the 28th of April through 06 May. Please see AIP SUP 071/2024 for further details. So far, no NOPAC closures expected next week per the latest PAZA FIR notams. Normal SFO ground delay program probable after 15z. Tropical outlook West Pacific East Pacific / Indian Ocean basin - no suspect areas    US Severe weather outlook - starting out fairly busy this morning with tornado watches already out for portions of Eastern OK. Rest of the weekend continues to look active, with AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF OK...PARTS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO... SOUTHEAST NE... SOUTHWEST IA... on Saturday and Saturday night in association with a fairly strong and deep upper-level trough. This will likely impact the TRANSCON routes with tops expected to exceed FL 450 in lines. Europe analysis - fairly deep area of low pressure will be located in the Southern Bay of Biscay on Saturday afternoon, moving towards the West Central North Sea Sunday afternoon. Showers and very isolated thunderstorms are possible over portions of Western Europe through the weekend however the lightning forecasts suggest the thunderstorms will be very isolated. Most favored area for thunderstorms in Europe will be on Saturday and Sunday over Eastern Turkey. North Atlantic jet stream analysis - FL 390 - upper-level trough over Western Europe and an upper-level low off to the NE of Bermuda will allow for very light winds north of 30 degrees North. No large changes expected early next week. Sub-tropical jet remains in place from Northern Mexico to the Canary Islands with velocities in excess of 75 knots. Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotalweather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center,  weathernerds.org, Tomer polar/tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.

A Fresh Forecast Weather conditions significantly impact aircraft flight time, performance, and safety. The weather we experience on the ground and in the air affects every decision made in aviation. Whether you are new to flying or a seasoned aviator, weather planning is essential. There are many evaluation products available to support a comprehensive weather briefing and inform good judgment for all aviators. It is important to familiarize yourself with all the tools available and understand how each product fits into your flying timeline to develop a total awareness of the atmospheric conditions. Read about the technology that has revolutionized the field of forecasting in “A Fresh Forecast” at https://lnkd.in/emcXFZjr (https://lnkd.in/emcXFZjr) in the Mar/Apr 2024 issue of FAA Safety Briefing.See the entir e weather-themed issue at https://lnkd.in/e3TCpNGr (https://lnkd.in/er2r5cDe) .

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This week will see some strong winds, with the windiest conditions across the north of the UK and in the southwest, gales are probable at times for west Scotland and potentially Northern Ireland. There may also be some heavy rain in the northwest through the middle of the week, with the most hazardous days being Wednesday and Thursday. It is likely that aviation will be impacted throughout the week, with most impacts in the west and northwest of the UK. Find out more in our latest week ahead forecast:

Weather delays have increased 48% since 2022. Management of this major impact on aviation efficiency (and safety) is going to take more: more collaboration, sharing, anticipation and mitigation. Eurocontrol are calling for us to all do it together! At The Aviation Place we are also looking to increase the collaboration in aviation by building more awareness and understanding between roles. We have recently released a new e-Learning course on turbulence management, with a focus on how pilots and ATCOs can better collaborate on this threat. It’s free! And we hope it’s useful for anyone interested in signing up for it. You can find it on our website under ‘Learn Stuff’. #elearning #learningandevelopment #aviationtraining #eurocontrol #aviationsafety #flightoperations

Credit to International Air Transport Association (IATA) 794,934 followers in LinkedIn March 31, 2024 Weather-related operational disruptions are rising https://lnkd.in/gwBRZvJT Weather patterns have been changing, directly impacting #airline operations, as evidenced by recent trends in the Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) delays in Europe ATFM delays arise when there is a lack of capacity in specific airspace areas. In such cases, aircraft are asked to delay their take off by several minutes, or slightly alter their flight paths. The shortest average weather - related delay across the airspace covered by Eurocontrol was observed in 2020, when COVID -19 caused extraordinarily low traffic volumes which meant that there was sufficient airspace capacity to absorb any disruptions. A longer view has seen the average delay rise from 0.13 minutes per flight in 2011 to 0.54 minutes in 2023 In total, this amounted to 5.4 million minutes - or 90,000 hours of flight delays last year. This has a cost impact on airlines, travelers, and the environment. Changing #weather patterns highlight the need for greater operational flexibility, in addition to climate change mitigation actions, or flight delays willikely become an even bigger concern Learn more about the #WeeklyChart and weather - related operational disruptions https://bit.ly/4ab5pMJ

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