Farkhodjon Israilov’s Post

YOUR NEIGHBOURS PAY WHEN YOU FIGHT: A fascinating new paper from the International Monetary Fund shows the impact of conflict on neighbouring countries. 🧵 👉🏿A major ‘conflict spillover shock’ decreases GDP by 0.5 percentage points for three years. 👉🏿Private investment decreases by up to 1.5% 👉🏿Inflation, government spending, government debt, and imports increase. 👉🏿Private consumption doesn’t really change. 👉🏿In countries with weak government effectiveness and limited fiscal space the decline in growth is close to 1.2 and 3 percent 👉🏿But in countries with high government effectiveness and fiscal space the effects are ‘muted’ https://lnkd.in/ewNxMYnJ

Very good information from EBRD Bank 🏦 regarding Polish Economy, which uplifts GDP growth prospects for Poland 🇵🇱 to 2.9% this year and possibly 3,5% next year 💸🔝 That corresponds with high results of FDI inveyinto Poland in the 1st Q 24 💰⚙️ Hopefully we will deliver excellent performance ✅ in all key areas of the Polish Economy 🇵🇱🇪🇺 in the coming quarters, with controllable inflation ⚖️ and no external major shocks, which may will divert us from fast growth scenario 📈💵 Probably more good news for Poland & Poles coming as this is just the beginning of the growth cycle in Europe however we need to act now & fast locally to accelerate it 🔌💡

Welcome to Day 86! 🚀 Today's focus is on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most important indicators of a country's economic health. It represents the total monetary value of all goods and services produced within a nation's borders over a specific period, usually quarterly or annually. GDP can be measured in three ways: 1. Production Approach: Calculates the value added at each stage of production. 2. Income Approach: Sums up total national income, including wages, profits, and taxes minus subsidies. 3. Expenditure Approach: Totals consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports (exports minus imports). GDP provides a comprehensive snapshot of a country's economic performance. A growing GDP indicates economic expansion, while a shrinking GDP signals contraction. Policymakers, investors, and economists use GDP data to make informed decisions about monetary policy, fiscal policy, and investment strategies. GDP impacts everything from business planning and investment decisions to government policy and international trade. By analyzing GDP trends, stakeholders can gain insights into economic conditions and potential future developments. Stay tuned for more insights in our ongoing series! #Finance #Accounting #FinanceInsights #Day86 #GrossDomesticProduct #GDP

Already in technical #Recession for the second time in the last three years , #Hungarian economy struggles to find its recovery pace . At the same time , #Moody’s has already changed its rating outlook to #negative citing increased risk for the country losing out on precious #Europeanfunds that accounted for ca 4% of last year’s #GDP. A negative outlook for #European industry and economy make the fragile recovery plan of the country even more fragile . #bankingprofitability is closely correlated to #GDPGrowth . #Hungarian #banks will have an interesting few years ahead facing both domestic vulnerabilities and regional macro deterioration .

The country's current account balance swung to a surplus of $5.7 billion (0.6% of GDP) in Q4 FY24, a significant turnaround from the $8.7 billion deficit (1% of GDP) last quarter! 📈✨ Thanks to a lower trade deficit, booming services exports, and strong remittances, we're back on the positive side! 🌟💪 #Economy #Trade #Finance #Growth

🇺🇸🇧🇷🔈 [LATIN AMERICA MARKET] CGI is present in Brazil to meet all the challenges arising from this country in full economic development. 🚀 With our local operation and dedicated partners, we are here to support your needs in this dynamic market. According to the IMF for 2023, Brazil's GDP stands at 2,127 billion USD! #CristalGroupInternational #CristalGroup #CristalCreditInternational #IntelligenceEconomique #BusinessIntelligence #RiskManagement #CreditReporting #DueDiligence #Compliance #Conformite #Chile #Latinamericanmarket

“Vietnam’s economy is projected to expand by close to 6 percent in 2024, up from 5 percent in the previous year, driven by a recovering export sector, robust foreign direct investment, and policy support. Monetary and fiscal policies are expected to remain supportive given sluggish domestic activity, but will also need to manage downside risks, including if inflation pressures were to increase. Policies should also continue to strengthen the health of the financial system.” https://lnkd.in/gFhqjABS

Weekly economic highlights: Global country and sector risks forecast. Latvia: among lowest annual inflation countries in Europe. Lithuania: showing signs of economic recovery. Global growth forecast at 2.5% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. Inflation impacts across Europe affecting business planning, consumer spending, and export competitiveness. Sources: Coface (2024/06/18): https://lnkd.in/effZ22jc Eurostat (2024/06/18): https://lnkd.in/dhjWSqkT Bank of Lithuania (2024/06/11): https://lnkd.in/dgveB4qk Turbulence ahead? Learn how Credeo can help your business reduce credit risks. Contact us for a free consultation: +371 67199050 [email protected] #CreditInsurance #Creditrisk #Fraud #risk #economics #forecast #B2B #inflation #baltics #gdp #latvia #lithuania #europe #insurance #export

The current fiscal and monetary policy changes by the Ethiopian government have significant positive and negative impact on the national economy. Monetary policy changes:- 1. Market based FX rate - the exchange rate of birr against foreign currency will be determined by the market itself i.e. Demand VS Supply. Obviously, there is a higher demand of hard currency as we have import dominated economy so that the price expected to be depreciated at least parallel to the present black market exchange rate. What will be the advantage and disadvantage for the national Economy? Advantage:- A. Atracts FDI- Foreign investors will be encouraged as they can invest with a little cost which will be gained from the devalued birr value against foreign currency. B. Encourages Export- The cost of export will be minimal and the export commodity can be competetive interms of price as the exporter can sale the products in minimum prices assuming higher birr value from each foreign currency earned. C. Improved trade deficit - as it encourages export and discourages import, the net export value will be better off. However, all of the above advantages will not be applicable in Ethiopia as foreign investors will not come since investment is sensitive to peace and stability of the region. The second one is not also applicable as there are low productivity of export commodities and poor logistics due to the on going civil war in the country. Disadvantage:- A.Higher and uncontroled inflation is expected. The national economy is import dominated so every import item is purchased by fireign currency that will increases the price of items. Here, even if our mass consumer products are unprocessed and domesticaly produced goods, from the previous market experience, the price is interrelated. The price of processed imported consumer products will transcends to the domesticaly produced goods for consumption. B. It erodes the national debt repayment capacity. Since the debt contracts are held to repay in foreign currency, the davaluation will significantly increase the repaymement amount. 2. Interest rate based monetary policy- Interest rate is a monetary instrument used to control the money market. NBE applied this policy recently i.e. 15% rate for auction every 14 days. When the government needs to collect the circulated money in the market, it will sale treasury bills with a daily based interest rate of 15% and vise versa. It needs a strongly established institutions to be applicable and the Economy may not be responsive to this monetary policy measure in times of crisis.

Economic forecasting and economic impact on strategic analysis: The outlook for 2025 doesn’t change appreciably because it will take time for changes in fiscal, trade and immigration policy to be implemented and impact the economy. New forecast anticipates real GDP growth will be 0.3ppts higher than in 2026 than under a continuation previous. However, as the fiscal support fades and the drag from immigration cuts intensifies, the deviation from the continuation of the current balance narrows before falling 0.6ppts lower in 2028. It’s important to expect the unexpected, particularly when it comes to tariffs. Therefore, these scenarios will focus on both the magnitude of the tariffs implemented and the timing. Access leading global forecasting and quantitative analysis. Fiscal policy could again trigger growth surprises, but no balance it looks set to be broadly neutral. The gradual reduction in policy rates combined with the fall behind in the transmission mechanism of benefits to growth from looser monetary policy will be small in 2025. Jaya Roy MBA, Economist