Erudite Risk’s Post

Today in Asia Times, I wrote about the escalating missile arms race between North and South Korea, with both nations aiming to outdo each other. North Korea recently revealed a new mobile missile launcher, potentially linked to a longer-range missile, signaling its goal to undermine U.S. deterrence in the region. Meanwhile, South Korea showcased its Hyunmoo-5 missile, capable of carrying the largest conventional warheads, in a clear bid to counter Pyongyang's threats. Both Koreas are focusing on boosting their missile capabilities as tensions rise, with South Korea enhancing its ability to deliver devastating strikes. However, while South Korea's new missile technology is a step forward, the absence of nuclear weapons limits its deterrence compared to North Korea. As these developments unfold, the future of the U.S.-South Korea alliance remains uncertain, especially with the upcoming U.S. elections.

The missile attack carried out by Iran on 1001 yesterday, has destroyed several strategic military targets of the enemy, and the enemy's iron dome proved to be a failure. Military targets hit by Iranian missile attack: 🔴The Nevatim Airbase, which houses of F-35s, located outside of Beersheba 🔴The Hatzerim Airbase in the Negev Desert 🔴The Tel Nof Airbase 20 kilometers south of Tel Aviv 🔴The IDF Glilot Intelligence Base, which houses IDF Unit 8200, which is the IDF’s signals collection unit, and the Mossad Headquarters 🔴Yarkon Park, where Shin Bet is headquartered. In the attack, Iranian "Shahab-3" missile was used in large numbers against enemy for the first time. Medium-range "Shahab-3" produced in various versions since 2003, the first versions of which began serial production about 20 years ago. If the storage life of such missiles is similar to Soviet ones, it’s right around now that Iran would need to dispose of its first batches. And that's exactly what happened "live on air" today. This missile is capable of carrying a warhead of up to 1 ton over a distance of up to 2,500 km. Additionally, the latest versions of this missile feature GPS-based satellite trajectory correction and a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) with five warheads of 220 kg each. Iran has already demonstrated that through mass deployment, it can penetrate air defenses of enemy. The only question is how many missiles they have for this purpose. Yesterday, only several hundred were used. In that attack, Iran also has used hypersonic missiles for the first time during airstrikes, reports the Iranian agency IRIB. #geostrategy #geopolitics #beirut #economy #nuclear #missile #hypersonic #energy #ballistics #worldaftercovid19 #postpandemic #newcoldwar #coldwar #crisis #dedollarization #hybridwar #war #recession #deindustrialization #iran #tehran #middleeast

A ballistic missile with multiple warheads fired Thursday by Russia on Ukraine departs from the Cold War doctrine of deterrence. Experts say that ballistic missiles with multiple warheads, known as “multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles,” or MIRVs, have never been used to strike an enemy. Videos of the strike showed multiple warheads falling at different angles on the target. While the warheads dropped on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro were not nuclear, their use in conventional combat operations is certain to raise more uncertainty in a world already on edge. The highly destructive capacity of MIRVs means they are potential first-strike weapons and targets, Hans Kristensen and colleague Matt Korda at the Federation of American Scientists wrote in a study. That’s because it’s easier to destroy multiple warheads before they are launched than try to shoot them down. Russia alerted the US to the missile beforehand. But even with that advanced warning, any further launches by Putin’s regime will inevitably ratchet up fears across Europe, with many asking the question: Has deterrence just died? Ukraine's parliament has canceled today's session, citing the risk of a Russian missile attack on the district of Kyiv, where government buildings are located. https://lnkd.in/gfX3-vQi

North Korea on Friday confirmed the successful test launch of its new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), designated “Hwasong-19.” North Korean state media claimed it to be “the world’s strongest” and a “perfected weapon system.” The test, conducted on Thursday, saw the missile reach higher altitudes and stay airborne longer than any of North Korea’s previous missiles, showcasing the country’s continued ambition to develop sophisticated missile technology. Reports indicate that the Hwasong-19 could potentially reach the US mainland, fulfilling a threat often voiced by Kim Jong Un if North Korea’s sovereignty were ever compromised. Despite doubts raised by Western experts on North Korea’s ability to fully develop such advanced technology, North Korean media celebrated the Hwasong-19 as “the world’s strongest strategic missile.” Read more: https://lnkd.in/gS4G8tBM #northkorea #todaynews #updates

‼️BREAKING NEWS: Missiles hit #Dnipro as #Russia uses #ICBM in #Ukraine for the first time UPDATED: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has urged his fellow Ukrainians not to spread panic amid the threat of a major Russian air attack in response to Ukraine's actions, which came after Kyiv received permission to use the Western weapons from Washington and London. (DW.com) 👁️The Kyiv Independent November 21, 2024 8:57 AM (Updated: November 21, 2024 10:19 AM) https://lnkd.in/g8gNQs4Z 👉Editor's note: The article was updated with the Air Force's report about Russia using an #intercontinentalballisticmissile. Russian forces launched a large-missile missile attack early on Nov. 21, reportedly lifting #Tu95bombers and #MiG31KKinzhal carriers and attacking the central-eastern city of Dnipro. Russia attacked Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a #Kh47M2Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile, and seven #Kh101cruisemissiles, the Air Force said. Six of the Kh-101 missiles were reportedly shot down. This marks the first instance of Russia using an ICBM in its war against Ukraine. An industrial enterprise was damaged, and two fires broke out in the city, Governor Serhii Lysak said. A #rehabilitationcenter for people with #disabilities was damaged in the attack, Mayor Borys Filatov said. No casualties were reported at the moment. Russia regularly uses close, and short range ballistic missiles in aerial attacks against Ukraine, but ICBMs are far larger, can be equipped with nuclear payloads, and are designed to hit targets at far longer range 🦉It’s unclear what type of ICBM was used at this time. They were launched from the #Astrakhanregion of Russia.. #ukraine #ukraineairforce #russiaswar #russianaggression #ICBM

Morning Attack on Dnipro: Russia Deploys RS-26 "Rubezh" ICBM for the First Time On the morning of November 21, 2024, between 05:00 and 07:00, the city of Dnipro came under missile attack, marking a significant escalation in hostilities. For the first time, Russia employed the RS-26 "Rubezh" intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in a combat scenario. Launched from the Astrakhan region, this missile is designed to carry nuclear warheads and has a maximum declared range of 6,000 km. The city of Dnipro, however, is situated less than 100 km from the active frontlines. The attack targeted industrial and critical infrastructure and included a combination of missile types. Alongside the RS-26 "Rubezh," Russia launched a Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal" missile from a MiG-31K fighter in the Tambov region and seven Kh-101 cruise missiles from Tu-95MS strategic bombers near the Volga. Ukrainian air defense systems successfully intercepted and destroyed six Kh-101 missiles. However, the RS-26 and other missiles inflicted considerable damage. No confirmed reports of casualties have been released at this time. The RS-26 "Rubezh," developed by the Moscow Institute of Heat Techniques and manufactured at the Votkinsk Plant, is a strategic weapon originally designed for global deterrence. It features a starting weight of approximately 40-50 tons, a range of up to 6,000 km, and can carry four independent warheads with a yield of 0.3 megatons each. Based on two stages of the RS-12M "Topol-M," it may also be equipped with hypersonic glide vehicles such as "Avangard." The missile’s deployment highlights Russia’s apparent shift in operational strategy, leveraging strategic assets for tactical purposes. The RS-26 program, previously shelved in 2018 due to violations of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, appears to have been revitalized in response to Russia's withdrawal from key arms control agreements. Its use in Dnipro raises critical concerns about the escalation of conflict and the increasing use of weapons traditionally reserved for global deterrence. Credit: https://www.pravda.com.ua/ #eod #missile #UXO #Ukraine #EOKHUB

Sun Tzu and the Art of War in the Age of Mutually Assured Nuclear Destruction Will Putin Nuke Ukraine as a Last Resort? The enduring wisdom of Sun Tzu has guided military strategists for centuries, offering insights like "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting." But what happens when the stakes include mutually assured nuclear destruction (MAD)? How does one “subdue” an enemy when the modern battlefield is overshadowed by the possibility of planetary annihilation? This question looms ominously as Vladimir Putin faces mounting setbacks in Ukraine. His invasion, intended to be a swift reclamation of imperial glory, has turned into a quagmire. As his forces falter and his domestic position weakens, the unthinkable—nuclear escalation—has begun to creep into the global conversation. Sun Tzu vs. the Specter of MAD Sun Tzu's philosophy revolves around calculated moves: understanding the enemy, exploiting weaknesses, and preserving one’s resources. Nuclear weapons, by contrast, represent the ultimate irrationality. They are not tools of strategy but instruments of desperation, where everyone loses. For Putin, who prides himself on projecting strength, a nuclear strike on Ukraine would be the antithesis of Sun Tzu's wisdom. It would neither subdue the enemy without fighting nor ensure Russia's survival as a global power. Instead, it would solidify his place in history as the man who gambled humanity’s future to stave off personal humiliation. The Last Resort: A Strategy or a Bluff? As Ukraine resists with unprecedented resilience and Western alliances hold firm, Putin’s options dwindle. The nuclear question arises: would he actually use tactical nuclear weapons as a last resort? Sun Tzu advises against fighting battles one cannot win, yet Putin seems to operate in a space where pride outweighs logic. Deploying nuclear weapons, even on a limited scale, would invite catastrophic retaliation—political, economic, and potentially military. The global order would turn against Russia, leaving it isolated in ways that even the Cold War Kremlin never experienced. Ukraine, once viewed as a pawn in great-power politics, has emerged as a knight on the chessboard. By standing firm, Ukraine has not only defied Putin but has also showcased the limitations of authoritarian overreach. Sun Tzu might see in Ukraine’s resistance an application of his principles: "When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard." The West, while supporting Ukraine, must ensure that Putin feels he has alternatives to escalation. A cornered leader with nuclear capabilities is a risk the world cannot afford. In the age of MAD, a single misstep can lead to irreversible consequences. Putin's threats, however ominous, may be more about leveraging fear than actual intent. Nuclear rhetoric serves as a psychological weapon—a reminder of the stakes designed to fracture Western resolve. #TheArtofWar #SunTzu #BobRutherford

On November 21, 2024, Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) targeting the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. This marked the first confirmed use of an ICBM in active combat, a significant and concerning escalation in the ongoing conflict between the two nations. The missile, identified by Ukrainian officials as an RS-24 Yars, struck critical infrastructure, resulting in substantial damage and casualties. The unprecedented use of such a weapon signals a dramatic shift in Russia’s approach, raising global security concerns and intensifying calls for de-escalation. ICBMs were originally developed during the Cold War as part of the nuclear arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union. Designed for strategic deterrence, their immense range—often exceeding 10,000 kilometers—and ability to deliver nuclear payloads have historically confined their use to a theoretical threat, underscoring the concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD). The RS-24 Yars, introduced in 2010, is one of Russia’s most advanced ICBMs. It features a solid-fuel propulsion system, mobile launch capabilities, and multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), each capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. The missile’s deployment against Ukraine in a conventional capacity marks a significant departure from its intended role as a strategic deterrent. Experts suggest the missile was likely fitted with a non-nuclear warhead, though the psychological and strategic implications remain profound. The strike targeted critical infrastructure in Dnipro, leading to severe destruction and casualties, though precise numbers remain undisclosed. Ukrainian officials condemned the attack as a blatant escalation, noting that the missile was launched from the Astrakhan region in Russia. Military analysts interpret the move as a direct response to Ukraine’s recent use of U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike Russian facilities, including ammunition depots. Using an ICBM for tactical purposes represents a paradigm shift in warfare, raising concerns about the normalization of strategic weaponry in conventional conflicts. #news #intelligence #ukraine #war #russia #coldwar

The missile and nuclear buildups in Asia will be extremely difficult to stall. However, explicitly linking conventional precision capabilities to nuclear deterrence increasingly seems to be a recipe for worsening arms race pressures in the region. 

⚡ What is a Ballistic Missile? What are the Ballistic Missile Types and Their Ranges? - The ballistic missile attack in the tension between Iran and Israel increased the tension in the region. The tension between the two countries also affects international relations.