Erudite Risk’s Post

The Pentagon is sounding the alarm on the funding delay for the Compacts of Free Association (COFA) agreements. These pacts provide crucial military access to Pacific island states, and the delay in funding could put the US's exclusive access to these territories at risk. This could potentially allow China to gain influence in the region, which is a major concern for maintaining deterrence and safeguarding existing defense sites in the Indo-Pacific. Bipartisan efforts are underway to pass the agreements, but funding trade-offs remain a challenge. Urgent action is needed to secure the military's access to these strategic locations. #Pentagon #PacificIslandPact #FundingDelay #IndoPacific #USChinaRelations

What if Europe's defence power is the key to a stronger, more resilient transatlantic alliance? Rob Murray argues that by 2029, the US and EU must deepen their defence cooperation to secure global stability and uphold democratic values This means tackling three critical areas: increasing funding beyond NATO's 2% GDP target, streamlining procurement processes with an EU defence commissioner at the helm, and transforming defence manufacturing through innovation and public-private partnerships—including collaboration with non-EU countries like the UK and Norway 🤔 Could enhanced US-EU defence collaboration be the solution to today's complex security threats? 👉 https://lnkd.in/eEsy2e67 #DefenceNews #Defence #Procurement #Equipment #DefenceInnovation #DefenceSpending #MilitaryBudget

Legislator Chen Kuan-Ting Urges: Increase the Total Defense Budget In the face of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, I pointed out that as the situation between Iran and Israel intensifies and the United States strengthens its military deployment in the region, Taiwan cannot remain detached. It must play a more active role in intelligence sharing and resource coordination. I have observed that ongoing conflicts around the world, including the Ukraine-Russia war in Europe, the Israel-Iran standoff in the Middle East, and issues in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, all directly or indirectly affect Taiwan's national security. According to a report by South Korea's National Intelligence Service, Russia, North Korea, and Iran have already begun coordinating resources and cooperating in various fields. These measures include North Korea providing Russia with millions of artillery shells and China supplying drones, indicating that the regional connections among these countries are only deepening. Taiwan cannot afford to remain on the sidelines and should actively cooperate with countries like the USA, Japan, and European nations. I believe that Taiwan should not only play a more proactive role in intelligence sharing and resource coordination but should also consider increasing its defense budget. For example, Ukraine's military budget was about 3% of its GDP before the war, but it was promptly raised to 33% in 2022 to deter conflict in the Taiwan Strait. I propose for Taiwan to refer to Ukraine's significant increase in defense budgeting as a model for bolstering national strategic defense capabilities through budget adjustments. However, rather than increasing the defense budget only when directly threatened, I believe we should begin gradually raising the defense budget of Taiwan annually as a method of deterrence. I also urge government departments to break away from traditional thinking when formulating national security policies and to move towards integrating all national security resources and strategies. I must reiterate that in the face of complex and changing international circumstances, Taiwan's security should not only include an increase in the defense budget but should also actively seek international cooperation and strategic alliances to ensure security. The government to strengthen the public's understanding of international affairs so that the people can truly comprehend the predicaments of Taiwan and collectively strive for the long-term safety and stability of Taiwan.

Via National Interest: Can Europe Defend Itself? Continental defense will require a shift in mindset in both Brussels and Washington. A less dependent Europe facilitated by an American mindset shift might not only respond to voter concerns but also allow Washington to be more selective in its military engagement and, thus, more effective in the aid it provides. Ukraine’s burden could be shared in a meaningful way. A more confident EU that can provide for its own security has advantages for both sides of the Atlantic. https://lnkd.in/ev9qcETs

Estonian minister warns that EU is neglecting defense spending. "Europe is “not taking seriously the current situation,” said Marko Mihkelson, chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the Estonian parliament. He spoke to Defense One during a reporting trip funded by Estonia's defense ministry." “There should be hundreds of billions of euros invested directly into the modernization of military forces.” Estonia’s position is borne out by spending trends. While defense spending by NATO countries has generally increased, many countries have a long way to go to rebuild capability after years of divestment." "A Europe that had maintained Cold War spending levels, for instance, would have spent an extra $8.6 trillion from 1992 to 2022, McKinsey consultants concluded last year." "And if Russia makes additional gains in Ukraine, the cost of re-arming Europe may be substantially greater than the cost of supplying Ukraine with weapons now, warned Estonia’s defense paper on Ukrainian victory. " https://lnkd.in/eY7pSaik

Is Defense a Priority Across Europe? "Has Moscow’s large-scale war against Ukraine generated a sense of urgency in European capitals to make military defense and civil resilience a top political priority? The answer is a straight “yes” for Poland, the Baltic and Nordic countries, but less so for Germany and other wealthy European countries. We must prepare for a Russian aggression in five to eight years, says German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. In other words: not now". "That raises the question defense types will need to answer: If European governments should spend more on defense, what should they spend less on? That’s the choice politicians face. If we want more money for defense, which will be unavoidable if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election, and perhaps even if he doesn’t, we need to have to have this conversation across our societies, including in defense circles". "This reality check only highlights that, for Europe to make defense its top priority, a complete new strategic mindset must be installed with both Brussels institutions and member states mobilizing and coordinating their efforts and persuading EU citizens that a more security-oriented Europe must now take priority over other union tasks" https://lnkd.in/d8fqWQRW

The 23rd annual US-Taiwan Defense Industry Conference is underway in Philadelphia, highlighting defense cooperation between the US and Taiwan. Key figures in attendance include Taiwan's Deputy Minister of National Defense, Hsu Yen-pu, and US Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Jedidiah Royal. Discussions focus on forming global coalitions, countering China's gray zone tactics, and preparing for a D-Day style scenario. Additional topics include resourcing Taiwan's defense efforts and the potential impact of the upcoming US presidential election. Hosted by the US-Taiwan Business Council, the event features five sessions over two days, beginning with a welcome reception. Representatives from Taiwan's three major political parties are engaging in discussions on US arms sales to Taiwan, weapon manufacturing collaboration, and a backlog in military procurement. President Biden has approved $5.71 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, marking the lowest level since 2001, excluding the OObama administration's freeze. Annual arms sales have declined since 2022, raising concerns over diminishing US support for Taiwan's military modernization. Despite an increasing military budget in Taiwan, the reasons behind the falling arms sales remain unclear, even as US officials note the significant threat to Taiwan. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #Taiwan Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/g5iTqdzt

On the topic of Canadian Defence Planning / Readiness, I found the linked article quite a good read. https://lnkd.in/eNCRy-zX My main take-aways from the article are that: 1. The Canadian gov't hasn't been thinking about the possibility of being involved in a major conventional near-peer war since the end of the Cold War in 1990. 2. Recent geo-political events, combined with the initiatives and advocacy of our closest allies, strongly indicate that the Canadian gov't needs to again take such a possibility very seriously. I can see why both points came about and I don't see them as being a reason for self-flagellation or finger-pointing. Rather, I see these points as simply a reasonable call for measured action. People might argue that this isn't a "good time" to have to prepare for possible war, what with all of the other demands on the federal gov't and taxpayers' dollars. I'd counter, though, that there's almost never a "good time" to prepare for war. It's not something any sensible person or country wants to do, but it is something that sensible people/countries might have to do. And the widespread consensus appears to be trending towards this being something that we (Canada) has to do.

As global tensions shift and alliances evolve, the partnership between the United States and Vietnam takes on renewed significance. This week at the Pentagon, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. #Bilateralrelationship #DefenseCooperation #defensetrade #dioxinremediation #jointvisionstatement #militarymedicalcooperation #Pentagonmeeting #USSecretaryofDefense #USVietnamdefensepartnership #Vietnamdefenserelations #thxnews