Erudite Risk’s Post

Today’s meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Russia comes amid heightened tensions between India and China, especially since the 2019 border skirmishes in the Galwan Valley. The relationship has been strained by issues such as territorial disputes in Ladakh and increased military presence at the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Diplomatic efforts have often stalled, despite rounds of talks aimed at de-escalating tensions. The Modi-Xi meeting is crucial as it signifies a possible thaw in relations, with both leaders addressing not only the border dispute but also wider geopolitical challenges impacting bilateral ties.

India and China have agreed to resume patrolling in eastern Ladakh, increasing the chances of a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri indicated that diplomatic and military discussions facilitated this agreement, aiming to address issues stemming from the 2020 border conflict. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar confirmed that troops will return to patrolling as they did before the May 2020 clash, crediting diligent diplomacy for this development. Misri mentioned that efforts to schedule the Modi-Xi meeting are underway. India and China recently decided to accelerate their disengagement process in Ladakh after a discussion between National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Saint Petersburg. Doval highlighted that maintaining peace in border areas is essential for normalizing relations, building on conversations from July between Jaishankar and Wang. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #India Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/dtrmqvvz

While I still believe Indonesia China relations will continue with its progressive trends, let's not read too much and too early into Prabowo’s visits to China and Japan. Actually, RI defense minister's visit to China has been on the agenda since late 2023 or early 2024. The appointment of key ministerial positions in the future and the actual official state visits after taking office will be more indicative of Indonesia's new foreign policy and direction. Some of my views can be read here: https://lnkd.in/ggjfEUTr

China supports Serbia in defending its sovereignty on Kosovo issue — Xi Xi Jinping was on a state visit to Serbia on May 7-8 BELGRADE, May 8/ China supports the Serbian government in its measures to protect the country's territorial integrity on the Kosovo issue, Chinese President Xi Jinping said at a joint press conference with his Serbian counterpart Aleksandar Vucic after signing joint documents. "China supports Serbia in safeguarding its independence as well as following the development path that suits its national interests. China also supports Serbia's efforts to safeguard its own sovereignty and territorial integrity on the Kosovo issue," Xi said. Xi Jinping was on a state visit to Serbia on May 7-8. He began his visit to the republic on the 25th anniversary of the NATO Air Force’s bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. On May 7, 1999, North Atlantic Alliance aircraft struck the Chinese embassy building in Belgrade during a military operation against Yugoslavia. Earlier, the Serbian leader stressed that Belgrade has fully realized that the United States and the European Union will continue to stand idly by as regards the aggressive policy of the Kosovo authorities towards the Serbian population. In this regard, according to Vucic, Serbia will be forced to change its approach to the Kosovo issue. The Brussels agreements on the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina were concluded on April 19, 2013. According to them, the Community of Serb Municipalities, a self-governing body for Serbs living in the unrecognized republic, is to be established in Kosovo. Vucic has repeatedly stated that his country has fulfilled its part of the Brussels agreements, while the Kosovars only started drafting the Community of Serb Municipalities charter and then suspended the process. #business #finance #financialservices

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met on October 23, 2024, at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, marking their first formal talks in five years. They agreed to boost communication and cooperation in light of tensions stemming from a violent military clash in 2020. Despite strained relations, trade between India and China remains strong, and the discussions may pave the way for increased Chinese investment in India. Xi stressed the need to resolve differences for mutual development, while Modi highlighted the importance of peace, stability, and respect in their bilateral relationship. Both leaders welcomed recent agreements aimed at addressing issues that arose over the past few years and prioritized maintaining tranquility along their disputed border. Following the deadly clash in 2020, relations have been tense, characterized by military buildups along the frontier. Prior to this meeting, formal discussions had not occurred since 2019, apart from brief interactions at multilateral events. Recent diplomatic efforts, including an agreement between foreign ministers in July, aimed to ease border tensions. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri expressed optimism for improved relations following this significant dialogue. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #India Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/ge46Qn-P

https://lnkd.in/gnnjSeen There are increasing possibilities of Iran-Isarel conflict though diplomatic efforts have been intensified to avert this. Both Iran as well as Israel are significant partners of India. Time for a fine balance and challenge for India. Read my views carried by Navbharat Times.

Let's take a trip down memory lane to the nineties, a time when most of us lived in a world of black-and-white TV screens, with Doordarshan as the staple for entertainment and news. Radio was the trusted source of information, delivering news with a sense of authenticity that felt almost sacred. Now, let’s hit rewind and land in 1999, during the Kargil War. Yes, the infamous Indo-Pak conflict that brought General Musharraf into the spotlight (I hope I pronounced that right). In the midst of that war, India was not just fighting on the frontlines; it was also waging a diplomatic battle to block Pakistan’s access to foreign military support. A key focus was on Ukraine, which was in the process of supplying T-80UD tanks to Pakistan. This deal, initiated back in 1996, became a serious concern for India. Recognizing the strategic threat these supplies posed, India ramped up diplomatic efforts to persuade Ukraine to halt or delay the arms deliveries. India's strategy was multifaceted. It involved not only direct talks with Ukraine but also rallying global powers to discourage military support for Pakistan. Ukraine, aware of the diplomatic risks, did reconsider the situation but ultimately stuck to its contractual commitments. Despite India’s persistent efforts, Ukraine continued to supply arms to Pakistan during the conflict, delivering a significant blow to India’s attempts at international isolation of Pakistan. Now, fast forward to today. It’s surprising that President Zelensky seems oblivious to this historical chapter. After all, the arms Ukraine provided in 1999 were used in ways that deeply hurt India, with Pakistani forces intruding into Kashmir and threatening its lifeline. When you represent a nation, knowing history is crucial—especially when dealing with a country that was once on the receiving end of those weapons. Western narratives have often categorized India as a "third world" country, but times have changed. Today, Kyiv would likely welcome a visit from PM Modi with open arms, recognizing India’s growing influence on the global stage. As a nation, Indians have rarely backed conflicts, instead prioritizing the greater good, understanding the devastating impact war has on human lives. Diplomacy, efficacy, and peace—these are principles India continues to stand by.

Bharat's friendship with Russia & Soviet Union: Why PM Narendra Modi visit was timely & important As part of our commitment to global peace and development. We have always maintained strong diplomatic ties with both Soviet Union which included Ukraine and current Russian federation With PM Modi's recent diplomatic efforts propelling Bharat towards global economic strength, it is crucial for our citizens and administration to align with our evolving needs. PM Modi's decision to prioritise a bilateral visit to Russia first underscores a shift from the traditions thus emphasizing the significance of this strategic partnership. Our current imports of Russian oil has been pivotal in ensuring price stability in Bharat and in the European market, showcasing the interconnectedness of nations in today's world. The historical alliance between Bharat and Russia in defense and trade has flourished. Bilateral trade has reached $65bn in recent years, marking a significant increase from $10bn in 2015. In contrast Russia's trade with China stands at $240bn. As Bharat diversifies its trade partnerships it offers Russia alternatives beyond China which becomes imperative for global economic stability and mutual cooperation. File pic : ( 1. External Affairs Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee ji with the then Soviet foreign minister Andrei Gromyko in 1978 2. PM Narendra Modi with President Putin) #India #Russia

Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang is scheduled to visit Pakistan from October 14 to 17, as announced by the Foreign Office. During his visit, he will engage with parliamentary and military leaders to strengthen bilateral ties. Li Qiang will participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit and attend the Government Council meeting, accompanied by a delegation of foreign, trade, and other officials, along with interpreters. The discussions between Prime Minister Li and his Pakistani counterpart, Shehbaz Sharif, will focus on enhancing cooperation under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Both leaders will lead their respective delegations to explore various aspects of the Pakistan-China All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership, particularly in the realms of economic and trade relations. In addition to economic matters, the two sides are expected to address regional and global developments. The Chinese Prime Minister will also meet with President Asif Zardari during his visit. The visit underscores the significance of the long-standing partnership between Pakistan and China and aims to reinforce collaborative efforts for mutual growth and development. #Chinese #Prime #Minister #Li #Qiang #visit #Pakistan #October #hearts #Do #injustice #247newsupdate

India and China have agreed on troop disengagement and border issue resolution after a meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping at the Brics Summit. This marks the first structured dialogue in five years, following a new patrolling arrangement along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Modi underscored the need for mutual trust and respect, while Xi called for improved communication to manage their differences effectively. This agreement represents a significant step toward resolving a military standoff that began in 2020, which severely affected bilateral relations. Modi confirmed the deal on complete disengagement, emphasizing the importance of addressing disputes peacefully. The leaders agreed to resume dialogue between their Special Representatives, Modi's National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Xi's Foreign Minister Wang Yi, to oversee peace management and explore boundary solutions. Both leaders acknowledged that stable relations contribute to regional and global stability. While previous talks led to some troop disengagement, unresolved tensions remain at friction points like Depsang and Demchok, with reports of Chinese troops blocking Indian access to critical areas. Future troop withdrawals will depend on military assessments, with ongoing discussions expected to include confidence-building measures and initiatives like the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, as well as collaboration in regional forums such as Brics and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #India Get a full accounting of the security situation in Asia by subscribing to Security Asia. Subscribe now--free of charge--at https://lnkd.in/g7Cs8Gkf https://lnkd.in/gPpXjVk9