Eric Mandel’s Post

US failure However, such propagandistic rhetoric by the US is not "selling" well, the SVR stressed. "According to information at the agency’s disposal, the Americans cannot achieve a consensus in the reaction to the tragedy in suburban Moscow even among NATO and EU members, let alone the countries of the Global South," it noted. "On the sidelines, it is being noted that Washington began covering up for and exculpating Zelensky before the 'ashes of the fire-ravaged Crocus City Hall had even cooled.' Such a rush [to judgment] has seemed ill-advised to many in the West, and [downright] suspicious to those in the East." Kiev’s terror against Russia The SVR pointed out that the Kiev regime has been engaged for a long time in a "full-blown terrorist war [against Russia], which has been openly declared by its representatives, such as head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate [GUR] Kirill Budanov or Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) head Vasily Malyuk." "The slaughter of civilians in the Moscow Region is the direct "kin" of the mass rocket bombardments [on civilian targets] and attacks by saboteur groups in the Kursk and Belgorod regions. That said, information received by the agency indicates that, in organizing their attacks, the Ukrainians are making active use of satellite data provided to them by US intelligence," the SVR concluded. (Part Two, The End) #business #finance #financialservices

A regional war in the Middle-East can result in broken alliances and radical shifts of geopolitical alignments. "The dilemma for NATO is that Israel enjoys a special-status with the alliance while Turkey is a member state [emphasis added].It is dialectical because the U.S. commitment to Israel’s security and defense is ironclad, yet Turkey’s intervention and the subsequent Israeli response thereto invokes NATO’s Article 5—eo ipso obliging the U.S., the UK, and other NATO members to defend Turkey. Simultaneously defending the two warring parties presents a practical impossibility, even for the United States." #Israel #Turkey #NATO #MiddleEast

Israel should remember that the key to improving the strategic balance vis-à-vis Iran does not lie in specific military and intelligence operations, as successful and impressive as they may be, but in formulating and implementing an overall regional strategy https://lnkd.in/g8MdGszw

#Russia🇷🇺 While evidence increasingly implicates ISIS-K in the situation, it remains both easier and potentially more advantageous for the Kremlin to persist in blaming #Ukraine🇺🇦. This serves as a pretext for #escalating the conflict, possibly even justifying further military #mobilization of Russian troops. The term "mobilization" evokes images of 250,000 individuals being conscripted, either voluntarily or forcibly, into military service, echoing the historical call to arms: "Mother Russia wants you!" This concept, whether termed "mass mobilization" or "forced conscription" in Russian ("массовая мобилизация" or "принудительная мобилизация"), serves to amplify #mobilization efforts and rationalize additional strikes on #Ukraine's #civilian population. * The potential repercussions of such mobilization efforts extend beyond mere troop numbers, illustrating a broader #strategy aimed at intensifying the conflict and shifting blame away from #Russia. * This calculated approach aligns with the Kremlin's objectives, allowing them to #maintain #control over the #narrative while pursuing their #geopolitical #interests in the #region.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's recent declaration regarding the missile attack on Israel marks a significant moment in the ongoing conflict, as it not only legitimizes Iran's military actions but also serves to galvanize support among its allies. By framing the attack as a justified response to Israel's aggression, particularly in light of the killing of Hezbollah's leader, Khamenei is tapping into deep-seated grievances that resonate within the region. This rhetoric underscores the precarious nature of regional stability, where each military action is met with an equally forceful response, perpetuating a cycle of violence that threatens to escalate further. As tensions rise, particularly with Israel's ongoing operations in southern Lebanon, the potential for broader conflict looms large. Khamenei's statements reflect not only the complexities of Middle Eastern geopolitics but also the challenges of achieving lasting peace in a landscape marked by deep divisions and historical animosities. https://lnkd.in/gQbczhH7

Proxy wars are often volatile and interminable. As sponsors try to shift risk onto their agents, agents inevitably wonder, what's in it for them. Each member of Iran's self-proclaimed axis of resistance-- #hezbollah, #houthis, #hamas, and #Iraqi militias-- have their own parochial political agendas apart from Iranian geostrategic ambitions. My latest in The Hill discuss ways to combine military pressure and diplomatic incentive to peel off members of the Iran's Axis of Resistance. https://lnkd.in/eFfUshf8

https://lnkd.in/eGRFeSzB The Israeli Gov't has to do something about Iran. Iran is Israel's greatest foreign threat. The US also has to deal with Iran, although it is not the direct threat to the US that it is to Israel. Iran's proxies are a threat to American-flagged activities in the Dar-al-Islam, military and maritime. Iran is a proxy itself for the PRC, America's major strategic & commercial rival. Analysis of Iran's strikes on Israel this weekend will give insight into what that "something" should be,

wsj.com Opinion | Israel’s Deterrence Lesson for Biden The Editorial Board Israel’s strike Friday against Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is a justified defensive act against an enemy backed by Iran and bent on the Jewish state’s destruction. It’s also a lesson for the Biden Administration in how to deter an enemy using military force instead of hopeless pleading for restraint and “de-escalation.” Israel has exhibited remarkable restraint for nearly a year in response to Hezbollah’s thousands of rocket and missile attacks that have made the country’s north uninhabitable. ... Israel has changed its strategy from tit-for-tat responses to a pre-emptive campaign to degrade Hezbollah’s missile stores, launchers and military leadership. These are all justified targets in war. It’s tragic when civilians are also killed, but that is more Hezbollah’s fault. Nasrallah, who knew he was a marked man, located his hideout under residential buildings. Israel’s campaign has been a remarkable display of intelligence, technological skill, and above all political will. The sabotage of Hezbollah’s pagers and walkie-talkies wounded or killed scores of fighters. Its targeted bombings against Hezbollah’s terror masters showed how much Israeli intelligence has penetrated its communications. It continued to bomb Hezbollah targets on Sunday, including military commanders. Israel has done this despite the contrary advice of its allies in the U.S. and Europe. “West left powerless as Israel claims its biggest victory yet against Hezbollah,” declared the BBC in a news alert on Saturday. Isn’t Israel part of the West? It eliminated a terrorist whose killers are responsible for the deaths of thousands of Americans and Europeans. Israel’s government notably ignored the call by President Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and others for a 21-day cease-fire. Israel would have loved a cease-fire that allowed its 60,000 displaced citizens to return to their homes in the north. But Hezbollah had no such intentions. Mr. Biden had the good political sense Saturday to call Nasrallah’s death a “measure of justice.” But he couldn’t resist another plea for his failing diplomacy, through the United Nations of all antisemitic places, to negotiate a cease-fire. A cease-fire is far more likely with Hezbollah and Iran on defense than it was before this month ...... Instead of begging for restraint, the U.S. could capitalize on Israel’s gains by taking out Houthi sites and leaders after their next attack on U.S. ships. Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pledged revenge. ... Perhaps the Ayatollah fears what Israel could do in response. He can’t feel personally secure, even in Tehran, after Israel’s demonstration of military and intelligence prowess in the last month. *** Mr. Biden has undermined the U.S. ability to deter adversaries because he fears any escalation, ceding the advantage to Iran, Russia and China. Israel can’t afford such indulgence. Its survival is at stake.

What more crimes against humanity must Russia commit before political leaders acknowledge the obvious truth - Russia is a terrorist state? Please share this post and tag political leaders to amplify the call for immediate action. Let's urge Joe Biden, @secblinken, Mike Johnson, Olaf Scholz, Emmanuel Macron, @ursulavonderleyen, @keirstarmer, @antonioguterres, Jens Stoltenberg United Nations NATO to recognize russia as a terrorist state and hold it accountable for its aggression. Launching the #StillNotATerroristState campaign is crucial with two major events taking place this week: • On July 9, the meeting of UN Security Council which is de-facto paralyzed in decision-making do to russian veto power. • The NATO Summit (July 9-11) marks its 75th anniversary, with a NATO-Ukraine Council meeting on July 11. Join us to demand justice and peace! organizer @campaignforukraine post by @olena_ivashchenko design by @daria_42p https://lnkd.in/enA5yzvp #StillNotATerroristState #StandWithUkraine #russiaisaterroriststate #makerussiapay

Given the events of yesterday, Iran's response to Israel's operations, I think it's important to understand that the IRGC is NOT Iran's Army. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is not considered Iran's conventional army due to its distinct origins, structure, and roles within the Iranian military framework. The IRGC was created in 1979 to protect the newly formed Islamic Republic and its revolutionary ideals, serving as a counterbalance to the regular military, known as the Artesh. The IRGC's primary mission is to safeguard the Islamic regime and its revolutionary values, whereas the Artesh is tasked with defending Iran's territorial integrity. The IRGC is deeply intertwined with Iran's political and religious leadership, reflecting its ideological commitment. It reports directly to the Supreme Leader of Iran, granting it significant autonomy and influence within the state apparatus. The IRGC is involved in a wide range of activities beyond conventional military operations, including economic ventures, political influence, and support for proxy groups across the Middle East. Its Quds Force, for example, conducts extraterritorial operations to extend Iran's influence. The Council on Foreign Relations did a great background piece back in April. https://lnkd.in/ev47GRS2