Enertechnos’ Post

„…French energy giant TotalEnergies is studying whether to start trading copper, potentially paving the way to expand its vast oil trading operations into metals for the first time to capitalise on the energy transition. Rahim Azouni, senior vice-president of crude, fuel and derivatives trading, said the company has been “studying the case” for trading copper, in remarks made at a closed-door conference in London, according to several people who attended. Azouni cited the energy transition as the reason to consider expanding into copper trading, but added that it had not yet decided to do so, people who heard his remarks on Wednesday told the Financial Times. TotalEnergies already has a vast trading arm that handles oil products, gas, power and new fuels, though it does not disclose the size of its trading activities. His remarks come as a growing number of oil traders are expanding into metals to capitalise on the world’s need for copper, which is used in electricity cables, buildings and electric vehicles. The race for cleaner energy is also boosting demand for aluminium and nickel. While global copper demand is expected to surge over the next decade, the oil market has been lacklustre this year with China’s reduced demand for the fossil fuel keeping prices low despite war in the Middle East. Traders and trading firms that have built their fortunes around trading oil, recording bumper profits during the energy price volatility since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, are increasingly moving into metals to capitalise on demand. Vitol, the world’s largest independent oil trader, has recently returned to metals trading, a business that it exited in 2014. This year it poached two aluminium traders from a rival firm, and is focused on aluminium as part of its energy transition strategy. Geneva-based commodity firm Mercuria is also expanding into metals, building a 60-person metals trading unit under Kostas Bintas, formerly the co-head of metals at rival Trafigura. Even hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand, one of the world’s top-performing energy traders, has shifted to focusing on copper and other metals. Earlier this year he predicted that copper would reach $40,000 a tonne over the coming years, quadruple its current price…“

"Copper prices stay firm after hitting all-time high on AI demand + China recovery." "Prices are also being buoyed by predictions of a global push for renewable energy and electric vehicles, as well as more data centers to support the development of artificial intelligence, all of which will require copper. Industry sources and analysts say the market has been tight in North America and Europe, partly due to demand from the renewable energy industry and electric vehicle manufacturers. In terms of supply, the LME barred the trading of newly smelted Russian copper in April. Miners have struggled to meet production targets and bring on new projects onstream, such as with the Cobre Panama mine, which halted operations due to protests in the Central American country over environmental damage and land sales to foreign companies." #copper #renewables #mining #exploration #criticalmetals #electrification #supply #demand

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) projections based on data from the International Energy Agency indicate that by 2050, for example, lithium demand could rise by over 1,500%, with similar increases for nickel, cobalt and copper https://lnkd.in/gUQz-tWt

It is critical that multiple smaller producers come back on line to close the looming gap between supply and demand. Fully agree with John Sisay in this article and that Namibia is still a sleeping giant when it comes to copper production. There is a fallacy out there that unless a mine is a 200,000t producer it is not worth building, and consequently because of this approach these mines are not being built at all. Heavy on capex and permitting these big mines take 10+ years to bring on line. The smaller producers and those that can bring production on line quickly and less capital intensively are the ones that really generate the value for investors. Unlike many commodities copper is needed for net-zero, there is no better substitute and governments have made their pledges to when they say they will achieve it. Problem is if the world waits around for the 200kt big mines very little is going to change on the supply side.

The global energy transition is reviving interest in metals at this year's LME Week. Despite recent price drops in lithium and cobalt, expected supply shortages and high demand for green economy metals are attracting investment funds. This could boost prices and increase market volatility, especially in copper. Read the full article 👉 https://lnkd.in/ejCmRNTY #EnergyTransition #Metals #Investing #LMEWeek #Copper #Lithium #Cobalt #GreenEconomy #Commodities #MarketTrends

International coal price: higher-for-longer My colleagues Paolo Agnolucci, Matias Urzúa, and Nikita Makarenko have just published a blog on the latest trends and outlook of the global coal market. The blog post is part of a special series based on the October 2024 Commodity Markets Outlook—a flagship report published by the World Bank. Coal prices were down in November, following a 3 percent increase in the third quarter of 2024 and a further rise in October. These gains were driven by strong demand from the power sectors of China and India, coupled with shrinking supplies in both China and the U.S. Looking ahead, coal prices are projected to fall in 2025 and 2026 but remain above pre-pandemic levels. This anticipated decline is due to robust supply, as reductions in global consumption weigh on the market. Risks to the price outlook remain broadly balanced. Blog (December 3, 2024): https://lnkd.in/eU7gnxFx Pink Sheet (December 3, 2024): https://lnkd.in/eMe2eSpb Commodity Markets Outlook (October 29, 2024): https://lnkd.in/d4v2C6UK World Bank Commodities: https://lnkd.in/dQ-8CUm Commodity Markets—Evolution, Challenges, and Policies (November 2022): https://lnkd.in/gWttrnti

When is a broad commodity index not broad enough? We explore the importance of incorporating natural gas and other electricity-related metals to help power your portfolio's commodity allocation. Learn more here: https://ow.ly/8wOf50TCUou #abrdn #commodities #assetallocation #investing #ETFs

(Energie / Futures / Trading)🇷🇴 Intercontinental Commodity Exchange (ICE) 🇺🇸 a lansat Japanese Power Futures pentru Tokyo și Kansai, devenind a 4-a bursă care a intrat pe piață după European Energy Exchange AG (EEX) 🇩🇪🇪🇺, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (CME) 🇺🇸 și Japan Exchange Group (JPX) 🇯🇵. (電力 / 先物 / 取引)🇯🇵 インターコンチネンタル コモディティ取引所 (ICE)🇺🇸 は、東京と関西で日本の電力先物取引を開始、欧州エネルギー取引所 (EEX)🇩🇪🇪🇺、シカゴ・マーカンタイル取引所 (CME)🇺🇸、日本取引所グループ (JPX)🇯🇵 に続いて、同市場に参入する 4 番目の取引所となる。 (Energy / Futures / Trading)🇬🇧 Intercontinental Commodity Exchange (ICE)🇺🇸 launched Japanese Power Futures for Tokyo and Kansai, becoming the 4th exchange to enter the market after European Energy Exchange AG (EEX)🇩🇪🇪🇺, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (CME)🇺🇸 and Japan Exchange Group (JPX)🇯🇵. #Japan #Energy #Power #Futures #Trading #Exchange #ICE #EEX #CME #JPX

(Energie / Futures / Trading)🇷🇴 Intercontinental Commodity Exchange (ICE) 🇺🇸 a lansat Japanese Power Futures pentru Tokyo și Kansai, devenind a 4-a bursă care a intrat pe piață după European Energy Exchange AG (EEX) 🇩🇪🇪🇺, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (CME) 🇺🇸 și Japan Exchange Group (JPX) 🇯🇵. (電力 / 先物 / 取引)🇯🇵 インターコンチネンタル コモディティ取引所 (ICE)🇺🇸 は、東京と関西で日本の電力先物取引を開始、欧州エネルギー取引所 (EEX)🇩🇪🇪🇺、シカゴ・マーカンタイル取引所 (CME)🇺🇸、日本取引所グループ (JPX)🇯🇵 に続いて、同市場に参入する 4 番目の取引所となる。 (Energy / Futures / Trading)🇬🇧 Intercontinental Commodity Exchange (ICE)🇺🇸 launched Japanese Power Futures for Tokyo and Kansai, becoming the 4th exchange to enter the market after European Energy Exchange AG (EEX)🇩🇪🇪🇺, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. (CME)🇺🇸 and Japan Exchange Group (JPX)🇯🇵. #Japan #Energy #Power #Futures #Trading #Exchange #ICE #EEX #CME #JPX

Analysts are suggesting a start of the next commodity super cycle, a trend that could last for the next decade. The super cycle is driven by major economic shifts, including rising demand for raw materials in emerging markets and green energy transitions. Key elements fueling this development include global infrastructure investment, particularly in renewable energy and electric vehicle production, which demands metals like copper, lithium, and nickel. The energy transition is pushing up demand for these resources, as well as oil and gas, despite the push for sustainability. Supply constraints due to underinvestment in mining and energy sectors over the past years are another important factor. With limited supply and growing demand, prices are expected to increase. The geopolitical landscape, such as tensions between major powers and environmental concerns, further complicates supply chains, which adds upward pressure on commodity prices. It appears that despite volatility in markets, the structural factors in place signal the beginning of a long-term uptrend for commodities, particularly those vital to green energy and technology industries. #CommoditySupercycle #GreenEnergy #ElectricVehicles #CopperDemand #RenewableEnergy #Mining #Metals #EnergyTransition #OilPrices #SupplyChain #Geopolitics #Sustainability #Lithium #Nickel #GlobalEconomy #pmtrefinery #goldprices #silverprices