EklipX Research’s Post

After reviewing the first quarterly report of the Monetary Policy 2081/82, here are some of my predictions about the global economic situation. 1. Growth will stabilize but remain below pre- pandemic levels. 2. Inflation will ease globally, enabling monetary policy adjustments. 3. Emerging markets, especially India, will lead global recovery. 4. Advanced economies will experience slower growth but benefit from lower inflation. 5. Central banks will likely shift from tight to neutral or accommodative stances. 6. Structural reforms and green investments will gain prominence in China and globally. 7. Ongoing geopolitical and environmental risks will continue to shape economic policies and outlooks.

In the coming week, we are expecting a number of important events that may significantly affect the global economy. Investors will focus on the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which may provide new clues on the future path of interest rates. In addition, inflation and economic growth data from the Eurozone will be released, which may indicate the European Central Bank's next steps in monetary policy. US employment reports and Chinese PMI will show how the world's largest economies are coping with current economic challenges. In addition, investors' eyes will be on tech giants such as Amazon and Apple, whose economic results may signal a trend across the technology sector. Here's what you need to know to start the new week successfully. ☑ #investments #riskmanagement #assetmanagement #algoimperial #markets #economy #finance #capitalmarkets #earnings #bank #fed #futures #inflation #algotrading #ai #forex #czechrepublic #oil #china #FED #FOMC #BOE #UK #PBOC #ECB #BOJ #Japan

💡 Market Insights by Bas Kooijman MSTA 💡 This past week presented a mixed market environment with selective strength in certain sectors and ongoing global considerations impacting investor sentiment. ◾ U.S.: Gains in small-cap & tech stocks, anticipation for earnings reports, banks up on potential Fed easing. ◾ Europe: Mixed performance, French election jitters, ECB cautious on rate cuts. ◾ Japan: Yen weakens, stocks rally, inflation data raises policy concerns. ◾ China: Markets dip on slowing profits & foreign selling. Looking Ahead: Earnings season, French election, & global central bank policy will be key drivers. Read the full article for deeper insights into these and other developing market trends. #marketinsights #financialmarkets #investing #us #europe #china #dhfcapital

💡 Market Insights by Bas Kooijman MSTA 💡 ◾ U.S.: major stock indexes reached record intraday highs, with the Russell 2000 Index hitting a three-year peak. ◾ Europe: inflation rose to 2.3% in November, but core inflation held steady at 2.7%, keeping ECB policy decisions in focus ◾ Japan: markets saw modest losses as geopolitical risks and a stronger yen weighed on sentiment, particularly for exporters. ◾ China: The People’s Bank of China injected liquidity into the banking system, though tighter conditions are expected due to upcoming loan maturities. Looking ahead, investors should watch inflation, policy changes, and geopolitical tensions, especially in Europe and Asia. Read the full article for deeper insights into these and other developing market trends. #globalmarkets #marketinsights #us #europe #japan #china #dhfcapital

🏦 🌍 As we approach the U.S. election tomorrow, it's crucial for stakeholders in emerging markets to stay vigilant about several key factors: 𝐂𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲 𝐕𝐨𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲: Potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy could impact the strength of the dollar, which may cause fluctuations in exchange rates for emerging market currencies. 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬: Changes in U.S. leadership may influence trade agreements and tariffs, affecting market access and pricing in emerging economies. 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐒𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭: U.S. political outcomes can shape investor confidence, potentially leading to capital inflows or outflows from emerging markets. 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬: Many emerging markets rely heavily on commodity exports. The election's effect on global energy, agriculture, and raw materials can significantly impact revenues for these countries. 𝐆𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐓𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬: Watch out for potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy, which can alter geopolitical dynamics, particularly in regions with fragile economies. Staying informed and agile will be key in navigating the potential shifts post-election. #EmergingMarkets #USElection2024 #Fintech #GlobalTrade #CurrencyMarkets

Our last Chartbook of 2024 asks 10 key questions about 2025: 🦅 Will the US growth story persist? ❓ How will US policy affect the global economy? 📉 How many rate cuts are likely to be delivered? 🐼 Will Chinese stimulus bite? 🌏 Will the rest of EM keep growing? 🏭 Any chance of European growth turning around? 💸 Will inflation keep moving lower? 🥕 What are the key inflation risks? 🚢 What's the likely path for global trade? 💵 Will government debt be a problem? 2025 looks like it's going to be another highly uncertain year - with plenty of upside and downside risks for growth and inflation in the coming quarters. If you're a HSBC client, you can read our latest chartbook here: http://grp.hsbc/6041QiODh Look out for more key charts in 2025! #HSBCresearch #Economics

In this crucial election year, 3 consensus assumptions are shaping global markets: 1. Fiscal Stimulus Commitment: Authorities in the US, Europe, Japan, and China are expected to continue providing fiscal boosts to their economies. 2. Central Bank Liquidity: Markets anticipate the continued monetization of government deficits by central banks, echoing the liquidity surge of late 2023. 3. The Federal Reserve Rate Decision: The discussion largely focuses around when the Federal Reserve will initiate its anticipated cycle of rate cuts — June or later. Andrew Hunt of Hunt Economics is known for challenging the status quo. This time he isn't going to, well not yet anyway. Instead he offers 6 key variables to watch in the coming months that will decide the path of economies, markets and perhaps even elections. 1. The reality of fiscal support amidst potential underlying constraints. 2. The ability of central banks to sustain government deficit monetization without unsettling currency markets. 3. The delicate balance of US inflation, sitting on a ‘knife edge,’ that could swing either way.  4. Asia's role, particularly China's, in exporting disinflation, which in the short-term may give the Fed the room to cut rates but could make long-term economic prospects uncertain.  5. The potential unexpected shifts in China's economic policy. 6. The inflationary impact of geopolitical tensions and onshoring in the West and possible responses by electorates. Next week, Andrew will be briefing our clients in Australia on what to keep an eye on. We'll share highlights from his visit, so stay tuned for more. Anyone interested in getting in touch with Andrew whilst he is in Australia, let us know. #MarketInsights #EconomicTrends

At this mid-point of the year, the outlook for the world economy is better than previously feared 🌏. This clears up some of the roadblocks for Asia macro as well, although there are still plenty of gaps to be mindful of, according to our Asia Pacific macro strategy team. As a trade focused economic region, Asia has most to benefit from an increased likelihood in recent months that central banks will be able to land the global economies in a somewhat orderly fashion. Four of the G10 central banks have started cutting rates, and with disinflation back on track in the US, the Fed should be keeping the door open to a similar move after the summer. This should allow for Asia policy to recalibrate to more domestic growth/inflation considerations. Tailwinds from global demand is helping China to sustain growth around its target of 5%. Even as the headwinds from core rates and China macro ease, the second half will potentially bring wider geopolitical tails. With fiscal risks looking more likely in the face of a shift towards populism and the temptation to alter institutional structures to fund the same; policy safeguards will be key to how economies, and markets, navigate the potential gaps ahead. While there are clearly challenges ahead, there are also notable opportunities, particularly in ASEAN, which is benefitting from a pick-up and broadening of Chinese investments. In 2023, China was the largest investor in the region, surpassing North Asia, the US and EU. Its increasing investment into ASEAN has been focused on EV related industries, particularly in Indonesia and Thailand, which is a change from traditional investment into the electronics sector, predominantly in Vietnam.

Good news this week for the global business outlook. In its latest World Economic Forum Economic Outlook report, the I.M.F. projected global output to hold steady at 3.2 percent in 2024, unchanged from 2023. Although the pace of the expansion is tepid by historical standards, the I.M.F. said that global economic activity had been surprisingly resilient given that central banks aggressively raised interest rates to tame inflation and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East further disrupt supply chains.

Break the Glass "Last week, the Fed reset the global monetary policy outlook with its larger-than-expected rate cut. This week, China has swung decisively into stimulus mode in an equally momentous move. The Fed’s pivot after a 2 ½-year tightening cycle cleared the way for China to roll out monetary, housing and fiscal plans that amount to what Nomura economist Ting Lu describes as “bazooka stimulus.” In their latest move on Friday, officials cut the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve and lowered a key policy rate. In the US’s market-led economy, Powell’s move is designed to ease borrowing costs and thereby filter through the economy to keep labor markets from deteriorating further. In China’s hybrid command-style/market economy, the switch will be flicked to “on” more directly."