Dr. Eoin Drea’s Post

🔊 ::: EU Trade update - Updated report on distortions in the chinese economy ⚠️ The European Commission has published an updated report on significant state-induced distortions in the economy of the People’s Republic of China. This document is key to initiate and carry out anti-dumping investigations in sectors where prices and costs were affected by significant state-induced distortions. ℹ️ https://lnkd.in/e3z7KEdm #EU #Trade #EUTrade #China #Europe #customs #antidumping #economy #Tariff #distortions #internationaltrade #supplychain #TradeDefense

What could be the challenges to Europe's economy during the Trump era? ✅ 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐄𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝: ↳ Germany's economic slowdown, coupled with France’s government instability and rising populism, pose significant concerns ✅ 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲: ↳ U.S. re-inflationary pressure and potential global trade wars, especially regarding tariffs, introduce uncertainty to Europe's economic future ✅ 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐜 𝐀𝐝𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐍𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐞𝐝: ↳ Europe must address risks like increased Chinese EV imports, competitiveness gaps in high-growth sectors, and rising defense spending amidst fiscal limitations ✅ 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤: ↳ While U.S. tariffs may not heavily impact European inflation, economic growth remains slow Europe stands at a crucial inflection point, where strategic policy shifts, innovation promotion, and maintaining geopolitical alliances will shape its resilience amidst evolving global power dynamics #HSAAdvisory #EuropeanEconomy #GlobalTrade #Geopolitics #Innovation #EconomicOutlook Sebastian Stuart Petros Theodoropoulos Rezachanlou Shagun Malhotra HSA Advisory

New! CEP election analysis on Brexit and UK trade. How did leaving the European Union affect UK trade? In this briefing Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson and Catherine Thomas show that overall, Brexit has had a negative effect on UK trade. But, so far, this effect has been smaller than economists expected. * Total UK exports have grown at a similar rate to exports of other European economies since 2016. This is because strong growth in UK services exports has offset a relative decline in UK goods exports. * But total UK imports have grown more slowly than the imports of other major economies, driven by slower growth in UK goods imports. * In real terms, both UK exports and imports of goods are lower than in 2016, having shrunk by 1% and 2%, respectively. The authors say that Brexit is still playing out, as the UK continues to deviate from EU policy due to active and passive regulatory divergence, which further increases trade costs for UK businesses. New trade agreements with third countries cannot compensate for the reduced access to the EU’s single market. ‘Global Britain’ as a strategy for international trade is a fantasy. The UK’s proximity to the large consumer and input markets in EU countries will always present the greatest opportunity for trade. The UK therefore faces a basic trade-off: move closer to the EU to increase UK trade and living standards or remain distant from the EU and continue paying the price of new and emerging trade barriers. https://lnkd.in/epV4siQM

#BSEditorial | Global trade optimism The danger of a race to the bottom on domestic subsidies in several countries is real. India will not be able to compete under those circumstances. Thus, it becomes ever more important for it to create closer economic integration with US & EU https://mybs.in/2dUO4b7

EU-US trade The European Union and the United States have the largest bilateral trade and investment relationship and the most integrated economic relationship in the world. Together, they represent almost 30% of global #trade in goods and services and 43% of global #GDP. In 2023, transatlantic trade in goods and services exceeded €1.5 trillion.

EU-US trade: what EU economy ministers fear about second Trump term: With key industries, like Germany’s automotive sector, already facing significant pressures, and the risk of a broader trade war on the horizon, how is Europe preparing to adapt to a shifting US trade agenda?

China. 🚀 up 40% since September after the recent round of stimulus. Is there still any upside? We think there is … but more leverage is still needed, further structural reforms, and support for the property market. And then there’s the US elections – an external risk – where China seems to be readying itself for more tariffs (just in case!) 😉 Read on for a fuller analysis by Chris Mey, CFA and Paulo Salazar, our emerging markets experts. https://lnkd.in/dwKB-mt8

The EU runs a global trade surplus in EVs and risks injury to the economy should it impose countervailing duties on Chinese EVs Uri Dadush and Conor McCaffrey write about better routes the EU could take to improve competitiveness in this sector: https://lnkd.in/euXeqQM8

Sharing an article I published today through Project Syndicate - emphasizing that while Trump tariffs are likely to dominate near-term headlines, China’s industrial overcapacity remains a larger, core challenge for the global economy and trading system in the coming years. With recently implemented tariffs by advanced and emerging economies, and China’s responses and underwhelming recent macro stimulus, how this issue may evolve over the next few years is becoming clearer – with significant geopolitical implications.

A conversation about the economic vs. national security effects of US tariffs on China: my point can be boiled down to a question - what matters more, another quarter percent on inflation or losing a war to China? Listen to the whole show for the more nuanced approach. Thanks @WillRuger and @tiffanymeier_ https://lnkd.in/eWG7yCKj