🇮🇱🇱🇧 Hezbollah continues to fire rockets at the State of Israel, including firing into central Israel. During the past week, he carried out 117 attacks against Israel that caused several casualties and damage to buildings and property. Most of the attacks were carried out by firing from a steep trajectory. However, an impairment of his abilities is evident. These are expressed in the relatively low amount of ammunition that he fires and also in the attacks that he takes responsibility for, even though there was no indication that they would continue. The strict estimates (originating from the IDF scenarios), estimates that we also talked about and published about, stated that Hezbollah could launch an average of 3000 weapons per day, in the first period of time given an all-out war. / will fall in Lebanon itself). In our estimation, Hezbollah intended to realize this scenario when it launched a surprise attack (for example, like the attack to occupy the Galilee planned by it) or when Israel crosses three red lines for it: damage to the leadership, damage to infrastructure in Beirut and ground maneuver. As of today, two lines have already been crossed by Israel in terms of Hezbollah (hitting the leadership and Beirut) and the above assessments have not yet been realized. There are two main possibilities for this: the first, Hezbollah's central fire capabilities were severely damaged by the IDF. The second, a serious problem of functional continuity (temporary?) related to damage to the chain of command and leadership that causes confusion. Of course, a combination of these two possibilities is possible. We do not know if and when a ground maneuver will be carried out, but if a maneuver is carried out and Hezbollah does not fire according to the estimates above, then in high probability the two options above stand the test of reality. If this is indeed the case, this is a very great success for the IDF, which actually paralyzed Hezbollah's main firepower (missiles and rockets) and severely damaged Hezbollah's functional continuity. It should also be remembered that Hezbollah has been shooting at Israel for an entire year. During this year and especially during the last few months, the IDF is working intensively to deprive Hezbollah of capabilities with an emphasis on the short- and medium-range rocket arrays (hitting launchers and rocket depots). To his dismay, even before the significant escalation that began about a week and a half ago, Hezbollah had actually already lost quite a few percentages of its arsenal of rockets and launchers. The coming time will teach about the level of capabilities and competence remaining for Hezbollah.
Angus McFarlane
2mo
Just hit Kharg Island. No income from oil Economy collapses. Citizens hang the Ayatollahs. Game over!
It is so simple all oil fields in Iran has to be refurbished free of charge and I guaranty you, the war will be over!