The November jobs report today shows a job market rebounding from the storms and strikes in October, while still cooling gradually. [1] Payroll employment grew 227,000, boosted by the end of temporary effects from Hurricanes Helene & Milton and the Boeing strike. Temporary effects aside, jobs growth overall still seems to be on a cooler trajectory as 2024 comes to a close. [2] Less cyclical sectors like healthcare, education and government continue to be a large driver of job gains. Leisure and hospitality rebounded in November. Retail lost 28,000 jobs, but this is likely a seasonal adjustment quirk as holiday hiring has been pulled earlier into the season post-Covid. [3] Wage growth stayed flat at 4%. Recent heat in wage growth seems to be coming from supervisory workers while wage growth for production & nonsuperivsory workers continues to remain fairly flat. [4] The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%. It remains just barely below the Sahm rule recession threshold, continue to flash a yellow warning sign after breaching that threshold earlier in 2024. [5] One notable weak spot in the report was the prime-age employment population ratio which fell to 80.4%, the lowest level since December 2023. While this is still a relatively strong level historically, it does again point to a cooling job market. #economy #news #jobsreport
Daniel Zhao - what are your thoughts on long-term unemployment increasing yoy from 1.2M to now 1.7M. This makes up almost a quarter of the unemployment %. Where I'm going with this is do you think we're starting to see some redundancies in overall jobs be eliminated due to automation and AI?
You taking the over? Craig Fisher
The biggest takeaway from this report is that workers need to stay prepared for a search at all times. Layoffs and hires happen in every economy. Don’t let a report influence your attitude towards your search.
Ack, the concentration of growth in healthcare, education and government isn't a great sign - good analysis and thanks for sharing!
Lead Economist / Senior Manager, Data Science at Glassdoor
2wOur full write-up on the November jobs report can be found on our blog here: https://glassdoor.com/research/bls-jobs-report-november-2024