David Trainer’s Post

News alert: valuation matters today! Our DCF models are an incredibly powerful valuation tool as many of you who’ve seen our Reverse DCF Case studies know (see them here: https://lnkd.in/giE2MqAF). And, I have some news about those models. In case you’ve not seen, the team is hard at work making a lot of cool updates to our website and research tools. One of my favorite is the new charting tools for the Decision Page in our reverse DCF models. Words alone can’t do this update justice; so I put together a short video for everyone to see. Hey, I’m not a video producer, and I’m not getting an Academy awards for this video, but I think it gets the job done. In this short video, I am going to show everyone exactly why Tesla's stock ($TSLA) valuation is ridiculous. I welcome anyone to take the other side of that argument after watching this video. https://lnkd.in/gGN54RMS

3 statement and DCF models more frequently

🚀Just received my certificate for completing the DCF Modeling crash course! 🚀 Grateful for the opportunity to sharpen my financial modeling skills and enhance my decision-making abilities. #Financialanalysis #Professionaldevelopment

**DCF Model** I'm excited to share that I've been diving deep into the world of financial modeling like DCF Model. This powerful tool helps in valuing a company by estimating its future cash flows and discounting them back to their present value. There are two types of DCF approach, and I used Unlevered DCF approach. As I continue to learn and refine my understanding of DCF model, I would greatly appreciate any insights or advice from those more experienced in this area. Whether it's tips on best practices, common pitfalls to avoid or resources that have been particularly helpful, your guidance would be invaluable.

💡 Did You Know? In financial modeling, Monte Carlo simulations predict a range of outcomes by running thousands of random simulations. 🎲📊 Example: - Set Variables: Estimate next year's revenue with market growth (3%-7%) and customer demand (5,000-10,000 units). - Run Simulations: Generate thousands of random combinations. - Analyze Results: Get a range of potential revenues to understand best and worst-case scenarios. Why Use It? 1. Risk Assessment: Identify potential risks and prepare for them. Informed Decisions: Get a comprehensive view of potential outcomes for better planning. 2. Monte Carlo simulations embrace uncertainty, offering a realistic picture of future financial performance. 🌟 Follow me Het Parekh as I keep sharing my thoughts here. #FinancialModeling #MonteCarloSimulations #Valuation #finance 

𝗠𝗔𝗥𝗞𝗘𝗧 𝗚𝗥𝗘𝗘𝗞𝗦 vs 𝗠𝗢𝗗𝗘𝗟 𝗚𝗥𝗘𝗘𝗞𝗦 👇 A little chat with Frido Rolloos reminded me about this distinction. Greeks are used very frequently to understand how options prices change with respect to various variables and decompose your P&L. Most of the time you probably hear about Black-Scholes greeks. 👨🎓 Pricing and hedging more complex financial products require more complex (and flexible) models. 🤓 For example, an exotic option might be 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗵-𝗱𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 and not only depend to the terminal distribution (or to a specific point on the volatility surface) but rather to a larger part of the volatility surface and its dynamics. More complex option pricing models typically have 𝗮𝗱𝗱𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 as they need more flexibility to allow for a ‘better’ calibration of the volatility surface and its dynamics. 📈 When using such models, you typically differentiate between 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀 and 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀. 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀 would be obtained by : - Bumping market - Recalibrating all or part of your model - Repricing the financial product 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗸𝘀 would be obtained by : - Bumping model parameters - Repricing the financial product If you use Monte Carlo simulation, which you will often do with exotic structures, you will have to regenerate the paths (which might add some noise in the process). Note that I have never dealt with that in practice. Still find it interesting to understand and you might find it too as it is likely that some of your (not so far) colleagues have to deal with that. 😏 Feel free to correct me anytime in public so that others can benefit from your knowledge and experience. #SharingKnowledge #Greeks #Derivatives #financemarket

Life really is like financial modeling on Excel. We reflect on the past (historical data) and try to filter and use our mental pivot tables to reframe it in the optimal way for us to make massive progress in the future. As there are so many ways to, as John Wooden has said, "make everyday our masterpiece", it's important to grow from our core skills are from the day before, improving skills and building confidence simultaneously. Lastly, the future. No matter how great our breakthroughs, Monte Carlo Simulations are that change the world, whether it's at an investment bank, hedge fund, or our own startup and research in finance, we will each visit that place where we know our models were so skewed because we didn't create a shochastic model, or that we took in too much data based on self-selection. In that case, we MUST master the fundamentals, this time at the next level of self-actualization. Enlightenment is not enough. We must at times start over and rebuild our core strengths and once more, start up another mountain again. 📊🧪 #finance #financialmodeling #enlightenment #breakthroughs #montecarlo #montecarlosimulation #mastery #pivottables #financequotes #quotes #motivation #motivationalquotes

Ever wonder how to look ahead at the potential outcomes of your investments? Monte Carlo simulations are your go-to! We can run multiple scenarios with a thousand iterations, providing robust models of possible futures for your portfolio. Compare different investment vehicles to discover what works best for you. But here's the catch: while access to these simulations isn’t exclusive to working with advisors, interpreting the data can be tricky. Without a solid understanding, it's easy to get misled by the complex results. That’s where a financial advisor comes in! With professional insight, you can navigate the data maze and make informed decisions, ensuring the simulations are a powerful tool rather than a source of confusion: https://hubs.ly/Q02tZZGj0

With professional insight, you can navigate the data maze and make informed investment management decisions. Debra Wilkens, CFA, Chris Casey, Brett Halley, Bryan Jarman, CFA, Jeff Steiner, Tyler Schlumpf, CFA, David Holtorf, David A. Tawil and David Hillner keep you on the right path at Private Wealth Asset Management. #investmentmanagement #portfoliomanagement #montecarlosimulation #investmentallocation #investmentstrategy #riskmanagement #investments #wealthmanagement #wealthtransition

🚀 Dive into the world of finance with the Monte Carlo simulation! 📊💼 Ever wondered how analysts and advisors assess portfolio returns with precision in the finance world? 🧐 The Monte Carlo simulation is the secret sauce! 🍲💰 By blending random sampling and virtual demonstrations, this tool paints a vivid picture of various statistical scenarios, helping to tame uncertainty and shape solid investment strategies. 🎯💡 Flexible and adaptable to different risk levels, the simulation is a go-to for corporate finance, options pricing, portfolio management, and personal financial planning. 📈💼 While it may stumble on extreme events and behavioral finance quirks, the Monte Carlo simulation stands tall as a trusted ally for making those crucial investment decisions. 💪🔍 Ready to up your finance game? Monte Carlo simulation has got your back! 💥💸 #Finance #InvestmentStrategies #MonteCarloSimulation #PortfolioManagement https://lnkd.in/gTy_m_FG