David Zhou’s Post

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Tenaciously and idiosyncratically curious.

Been chatting with a lot of large LPs who haven't allocated to VC as an asset class historically To justify investing in VC, the common theme seems to be: VC metric = PME + illiquidity premium (+ complexity premium) To elaborate on each variable: 1/ VC metric is either IRR or TVPI Most traditional LPs, with a heavy portfolio emphasis on hedge funds, PE, real estate, etc will use IRR as the barometer TVPI is more of a venture-literate LP marker FYI, when I say VC, that's pre-seed/seed Series A maybe, but underwritten slightly differently with a lower return hurdle cuz technically less time to exit Multi stage VC doesn't count, and realistically if you are, you're probably established already 2/ PME = public market equivalent For most LPs that's 10% +/- 2% depending on vintage Otherwise, 2.5-3x for TVPI assuming 10 yr illiquidity horizon + 25% capital called each yr in the first 4 yrs 3/ lliquidity premium for IRR is 200-400 basis pts For TVPI, it's roughly 1.5x the returns of PME over same time period 4/ Complexity premium is just how dang complicated it is to understand VC as an asset class Things are more complex if: - you're a Fund I/II -you're not best friends with the LP already - you don't have a referenceable/attributable track record - solo GP - diverse GP (hate that this is a thing, but it is) - the LP you're pitching is not the decision maker - the LP is a younger member of the FO - the LP watched the wework show, or Silicon Valley show (yes, this is a thing) - the LP doesn't live on the coasts of the US All that to say the complexity premium can totally skew an LP's underwriting decision So if you ever wonder how LPs get to a number of why LPs are underwriting 5x net, or 25% IRR, it's cuz: a/ TVPI, IRR usually decreases over the life time of the fund b/ VC is damn complex if you don't already invest in it or live in NYC or SF

Nastja Preradovic Visic

Intrinsic Curiosity | Junior Investor | VC and VS education | Physical Chemist | 2X Mother | Wife |

2mo

I can't remember who said it. Anyway, one did something impossible. Others came to ask him- how did you manage to do this!?? It's impossible! The answer was- Sorry, I didn't know it was impossible ;) Shout-out to all Fund 1/2 diverse GPs raising from LPs outside of US ;) If I remember correctly, Silicon Gardens just closed fund II, all LPs from the region- all private money (Western Balkans, CEE, Europe mostly, again, if I remember correctly). Luckily , no-one told them it's that complex :D

Lucas Fernandez

Sr. Vice President @ talipot* | PE/VC Investor

2mo

I like to joke that if you're using a PME to evaluate a venture fund against public markets, then the great returns that you are looking to achieve are probably already gone for you as the LP anyways 😝 . Great to use for established VCs, not so helpful for evaluating emerging venture funds/GPs.....which the sampling of Large LPs (who haven't allocated to VC historically referenced above), are likely fixated on the former.

Ben Freischmidt, CFA

Client Adviser at Credit Suisse Wealth Management (A UBS Group Company)

2mo

At the asset class level how do actual long term realised VC returns compare to public market equity returns?

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Costantino Lisi

Techstars | Ex Google | Ex Hive

2mo

Looks like gold! It'd be nice to understand any differences with European LPs 🤔

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Matt Curtolo, CAIA

Experienced LP & Advisor in Private Markets

2mo

Great stuff here, as always. The truth is that most large LPs don't get paid for taking on incremental complexity.

Jonathan Romley 🇺🇦

CEO at Lundi | Building a Global Workplace Without Borders 🌍 | Bestselling Author of Winning the Global Talent War

2mo

Great breakdown of how LPs approach VC, especially the emphasis on PME, illiquidity, and complexity premiums. It’s clear that VC is a different beast compared to traditional asset classes, and the complexity premium really highlights why many LPs are cautious. 

Adam Sah

Investor • 3 IPOs • 25 patents • early@Google

2mo

Nice analysis. Why the comment about SF/NYC ?

Josh Burwick

Founder @ CaratX | Supply Chain Leader | Bring Value to Stakeholders | Sold software to SMBs & $1B+ companies | 2x founder

2mo

Oh, this is a must save post. Good one.

David Awad

Engineer | Lawyer | Curious Mind

2mo

I think ultimately DPI is of course the most important metric. TVPI is always an illusion based on what happened with the last couple of big IPOs

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Yifei Wang

Be kind. Think long-term. Deeptech Investor

2mo

Very helpful! It’s a bit of a nitpick, and the only difference from my convos with LPs is that they’re not thinking of an equation. They’re looking for a greater than! 🙏🏻

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