David Poynter’s Post

For $50bn, it would seem reasonable to expect an enormous amount of disruptive and ground-breaking technology. If this project were about another tube & wing, cantilever tail-assembly aircraft powered by another evolution of the ultra-high bypass turbofan, then $50bn would seem like quite a large overspend - even with inflation. A new production system could be another reason for the scale of DC’s extraordinarily high estimate of program costs for the next Boeing Commercial Airplane. In recent times, only the 787’s program costs have approached such levels and the challenges of the newly outsourced design and supply mechanism for it, are a large part of the program overspend. It seems reasonable to assume that Boeing would not be tempted to repeat this supply and manufacture system for a new single-aisle aircraft type. It is a tough decision to get right though. If you build the last of the older-style tube+wing turbofan aircraft then you may be at risk of early obsolescence if your competitor builds a disruptive new design that works. If you go first with the new-style design and break new technologies, you run the risk of being exposed to technical issues that might trigger additional strains on the balance sheet. So, getting it right is indeed vital but, as we have seen, doing nothing is not a strategy.

Boeing's 797 New Midsize Airplane The so-called Boeing 797 remains a concept airliner aiming to fill the 'middle of the market' segment - a void partially created by the Boeing 757 being taken out of production. Boeing assessed that the market size was large enough to pursue development work in 2015. By 2017, multiple airlines expressed interest in it (estimates placed demand as between 2,000 and 4,000 airframes). It is thought that the aircraft would be a twin-aisle aircraft with two variants (a 225-seater with a 5,000 NM range and a 275-seater with a 4,450 NM range). This would replace the now-aging Boeing 757, and if built, it would offer significantly (40%) lower trip costs. However, in January 2020, as Boeing reeled from the fallout of two fatal 737 MAX crashes, it was reported that these plans had been put on hold . Later, in 2020, there was speculation that Boeing would change the design to a short-haul narrowbody that was only a little bigger than the Boeing 737. This debate was triggered by former Airbus Americas president Barry Eccleston (who has been critical of the program). The aircraft is expected to cost up to $25 billion to develop. Reports in 2022 suggested its development would be delayed until new engines mature, and as of 2024, its status remains unclear.

Good article in Aviation Week about the need to lower the costs of new commercial #aircraft programs. New aircraft have higher levels of oversight and therefore higher costs to develop. This level of oversight is reasonable a priori, but has it reached the point where it has created unintended consequences? From a safety perspective, would the Boeing Max crashes have occurred if Boeing was not working with a sixty year old airframe? Could a less costly regulatory regime reduce the enormous barriers to entry for new players that protects the Airbus and Boeing duopoly and the rents it generates at the expense of consumers? The safety culture and low cost miracle that is modern #aviation was built on innovation. If that grinds to a halt, we all suffer. The FAA and EASA need to strike the right balance here. https://lnkd.in/g3e9Ja96

Good article in Aviation Week about the need to lower the costs of new commercial #aircraft programs. New aircraft have higher levels of oversight and therefore higher costs to develop. This level of oversight is reasonable a priori, but has it reached the point where it has created unintended consequences? From a safety perspective, would the Boeing Max crashes have occurred if Boeing was not working with a sixty year old airframe? Could a less costly regulatory regime reduce the enormous barriers to entry for new players that protects the Airbus and Boeing duopoly and the rents it generates at the expense of consumers? The safety culture and low cost miracle that is modern #aviation was built on innovation. If that grinds to a halt, we all suffer. The FAA and EASA need to strike the right balance here. https://lnkd.in/gr9yChyw

The average age of a commercial aircraft is around 20 years, depending on the operator. The actual design of that aircraft could be twice that age. Transport aircraft OEMs have largely relied on derivative aircraft designs for new models (see 737 MAX), due to the massive cost of designing a clean-sheet aircraft. Experts estimate this cost can soar as high as $50 billion. Rethinking our regulatory process could reduce the magnitude of this undertaking and enable more innovative designs to go to market. https://lnkd.in/exaSUbUT

Airbus and Boeing are two of the world's largest aerospace manufacturers, each with a long history and a significant impact on the commercial aviation industry. Here's a brief comparison focusing on key aspects of their commercial operations: Company Background Airbus is a European multinational aerospace corporation, established in 1970, with its headquarters in Toulouse, France. It was created as a consortium of aerospace manufacturers to compete with American companies, including Boeing. Boeing is an American multinational corporation, founded in 1916 by William Boeing, with its headquarters in Arlington, Virginia. It is one of the oldest and largest aerospace manufacturers and has been a leading provider of commercial airplanes, defense, and space systems. Product Range Airbus offers a wide range of commercial aircraft, from the single-aisle A220 and A320 families, popular for short to medium-haul flights, to the wide-body A330, A350, and the now-discontinued A380, the world’s largest passenger airliner, for long-haul flights. Boeing also offers a diverse lineup, including the single-aisle 737 MAX, and wide-body models such as the 787 Dreamliner, 777, and the iconic 747 jumbo jet, which is being phased out of production. Market Share and Orders The market share between Airbus and Boeing fluctuates based on aircraft orders and deliveries. Both companies compete closely, with Airbus often leading in single-aisle aircraft sales (A320 family vs. 737 MAX) and Boeing historically strong in the wide-body segment (777, 787 vs. A350, A330). Order books for both companies are filled years in advance, reflecting the long-term planning required in the aviation industry. Innovation and Sustainability Airbus and Boeing are heavily investing in research and development to make air travel more sustainable. This includes efforts to develop more fuel-efficient aircraft, exploring alternative fuels, and investing in electric and hydrogen propulsion technologies. Airbus aims to bring the first zero-emission commercial aircraft to market by 2035, with its ZEROe project exploring hydrogen as a primary power source. Boeing is focusing on improving fuel efficiency and reducing emissions through aerodynamic designs, advanced materials, and more efficient engines.

In a decade of re-runs, wing upgrades, and engine power-ups, the Airbus A220 is the most modern airliner since the Boeing 787. With enhanced range and lower fuel consumption, it stands king. But for how long? Find out more 👇 #airbus #boeing #aviation #business Disclaimer: Views and opinions are my own, and do not represent S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Supply chain issues continue to challenge Airbus Aircraft, slowing deliveries. Specifically, the aviation giant revealed engines, aerostructures, and cabin equipment are persistent supply challenges. In June, Airbus cut its annual delivery goal from 800 to 770 and now the revised number may be out of reach. Get further details here: https://lnkd.in/dVtG5q5K #airbus #aviation #airlinesandairplanes #aircraft #supplychain #supplychaindisruptions

Demand for Embraer jets is at an all-time high, which is a good indicator that the aviation industry is continuing on a growth trajectory. Of course, it also shows that people have great taste in airplanes, too! #aviation #economy #manufacturing https://bit.ly/3Xt273S