David Jackson’s Post

June 2024 Control States Results Total Control States spirits sales 9L volume declined by -6.3% compared to June last year leading to a -4.9% $Vol decline and a positive a +1.4% price mix. Over the past 12 months the 9L volume declined by -1.2% with a +0.5% gain in $Vol. During June there were 15 fewer selling days overall with 5 fewer days in Utah, 3 fewer days in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania and 1 fewer day in Alabama, Mississippi, Montana, and North Carolina. Driven by the large selling days decline all categories were negative with the exception of cocktails driven by canned cocktails +25.9% in 9L volume and Tequila +1.7% in 9L volume and +3.4% in $Vol. Wines declined at -16.0% in 9L Volume with -16.5% in $Vol returning a negative price mix -0.5% heavily influenced by the Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Utah selling days. Rolling 12-month 9L volume was -7.0% with $Vol at -2.7% resulting in a +4.3% price mix. The on-premise spirits channel declined by -10.9% in 9L volume and the same in $Vol resulting in a 0.0% change price mix. The large decline of -21.6% in Pennsylvania was due to the July 2023 PA ERP cutover. The state encouraged all on premise accounts to purchase in June. The on-premise wine channel also declined in 9L volume by -21.1% and a -19.7% $Vol decline resulting in a positive +1.4% price mix.  Full details by state are available at https://lnkd.in/eWKrCa_v

October 2024 Control States Results Total Control States spirits sales 9L volume grew by +4.7% compared to October of last year leading to a +4.6% $Vol increase with a negative -0.1% price mix. Over the past 12 months, the 9L volume declined by -0.6% with a +0.4% gain in $Vol providing a +1.0% price mix. During October 2024, there were 5 additional selling days with 5 more in Michigan, 1 additional day in Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina and Montana and 4 fewer days in New Hampshire . The large decrease in West Virginia came from their annual trade show sale with the sales occurring in September vs October in 2023. The large increase in Pennsylvania is due to the new distribution of RTDs in the grocery and convenience trade channel. The return to growth in October of 238,000 9L cases is attributable mostly to the new distribution of canned cocktails in Pennsylvania and the additional selling days in Michigan. Canned cocktails overall grew by 114,700 9L cases +68% with Pennsylvania accounting for 83,000 9L cases of the growth. Wines declined at -4.9% in 9L Volume with -6.7% in $Vol returning in a negative -1.8% price mix . Rolling 12-month 9L volume was -6.7% with $Vol at -3.2% resulting in a positive +3.5% price mix.  The on-premise spirits channel grew by +6.0% in 9L volume with a +4.9% growth in $Vol resulting in a negative -1.1% price mix. The on-premise wine channel declined in 9L volume at -3.5% and -2.7% $Vol decline showing a positive +0.8% price mix.   Full details by state are available at https://lnkd.in/eWKrCa_v

August 2024 Control States results are in! Total Control States spirits sales 9L volume declined by -2.2% compared to August of last year leading to a -1.9% $Vol reduction with a positive +0.3% price mix. Over the past 12 months, the 9L volume declined by -1.3% with a +0.3% gain in $Vol providing a +1.6% price mix. During August there were 4 fewer selling days overall with 7 fewer days in Michigan and 3 more days in New Hampshire.  The huge New Hampshire growth resulted from both the additional selling days plus a very successful gift card program. The large decline in Wyoming was due to a 2023 licensee buy-in ahead of the states ERP implementation in September. The West Virginia decline stems from a Special Pricing Program run in August 2023 that did not occur in 2024. With the fewer selling days most categories declined in August with the exceptions of Scotch +1.4%, Irish +1.0% and Tequila +4.0%. The growth in Scotch and Irish is due almost entirely to the New Hampshire program. Wines declined at -2.9% in 9L Volume with -2.9% in $Vol returning a flat price mix . Rolling 12-month 9L volume was -6.5% with $Vol at -2.6% resulting in a positive +3.9% price mix. The declines in large format =>1.5L for August was -4.7% in 9L volume vs regular 750ml bottle size and smaller at -2.4%. The on-premise spirits channel declined by -5.8% in 9L volume with a -6.1% decline in $Vol resulting in negative 0.2% price mix. The on-premise wine channel declined similarly in 9L volume at -6.5% and a -5.5% $Vol decline resulting in a positive +1.0% price mix. Full details by state are available at https://lnkd.in/eWKrCa_v Behind the categories: The New Hampshire Gift Card Program, run in August was so successful that two spirit categories, Scotch and Irish achieved positive growth due nearly entirely to this state’s sale.

February 2024 Control States Results are here! Sales 9L volume declined of -1.3% compared to February last year generating a +0.1% $Vol gain driven by a +1.4% price mix. Over the past 12 months the 9L volume grew by +0.2% accompanied by a +2.4% in $Vol. During February there were 8 additional selling days with all states having 1 additional day (leap year) except for Michigan, New Hampshire and Utah which had zero change and Pennsylvania -6 days (calendar month in 2024 vs fiscal month in 2023). Most spirit categories declined in February with the exceptions of Cocktails +7.2% in 9L volume led by Canned RTDs +17.2%. Domestic Whiskey 9L volume declined by -1.4% but was positive in $Vol at +1.3%. Tequila grew by 9.3% in 9L volume and +8.4% in $Vol showing negative price mix and 9L volume shift from the Super-Premium +3.9% and Ultra-Premium +2.1% segments to the lower priced Premium segment +16.6% with $Vol growth of +19.1% denoting a premiumization within this lower priced segment. Wines declined at -15.0% in 9L Volume with -14.4% in $Vol returning a positive price mix +0.6% heavily influenced by Pennsylvania at -171,100 9L cases due to the calendar anomaly. Rolling 12-month 9L volume was -5.2% with $Vol at -0.5% resulting in a +4.7% price mix. The on-premise spirits channel declined at -0.9% in 9L volume (an improvement vs January) and -0.5% in $Vol resulting in a +0.4% price mix. The on-premise wine channel was -10.1% 9L volume with $vol at -8.0% with a +2.1% price mix. The wine on-premise data excludes the Pennsylvania WEP accounts. Full details by state are available at https://lnkd.in/eeCcx-yH Behind the categories: For a number of years now, there has been a steady shift towards the Ultra-Premium price segment in spirits, and it continues to be the overall growth driver in both 9L cases and $Vol. Over the last 6 months however, the Premium category is also gaining share in Vodka, Tequila and Scotch. The chart below details the highest growth segment for each of the major spirit categories. (The Vodka Ultra-Premium segment is the fastest growing but accounts for less than 0.5% share).

Wetherspoon Sales Up 5.2% in Q1 Like-for-like sales increased by 5.2% in the 13 weeks to 28 April 2024, compared to the same period last year. Year-to-date (YTD) like-for-like sales increased by 8.3%. Total sales increased by 3.3% in the quarter and by 6.5% YTD. The last week of the period last year included a bank holiday weekend, whereas this year the bank holiday was a week later. Excluding that week, like-for-like sales for the first 12 weeks of the period increased by 6.0%. The uplit is attributed to the younger generation are drinking Guinness while the older generation are driving coffee sales, the boss of Wetherspoon has said. The chairman of JD Wetherspoon, Tim Martin, said: “Sales in the period continued the steady recovery from the pandemic. “Traditional ales, which were very slow in the aftermath of the lockdowns, are increasing momentum, with Abbot Ale, Ruddles Bitter and Doom Bar showing good growth, as indeed are ales from the many small and micro brewers with which we trade. “The gods of fashion have smiled upon Guinness, previously consumed by blokes my age, but now widely adopted by younger generations. “Also selling well among younger generations are Au Vodka from Swansea and XIX flavoured vodkas, the latter promoted by the hugely popular Sidemen. “Wine has been on the comeback trail, with Villa Maria Sauvignon Blanc, from New Zealand, popular among Wetherspoon representatives of the chattering classes. “Sales of Lavazza coffee are also increasing. Free refills are thought to be responsible for spontaneous exhibitions of breakdancing among retired customers. “Our new menu, launched last week, has had a promising start, with some kindly reviewers comparing new dishes favourably with respected competitors: “The company expects profits in the current financial year to be towards the top of market expectations.” Read More:

August 2024 Control States Results Total Control States spirits sales 9L volume declined by -2.2% compared to August of last year leading to a -1.9% $Vol reduction with a positive +0.3% price mix. Over the past 12 months, the 9L volume declined by -1.3% with a +0.3% gain in $Vol providing a +1.6% price mix. During August there were 4 fewer selling days overall with 7 fewer days in Michigan and 3 more days in New Hampshire.  The huge New Hampshire growth resulted from both the additional selling days plus a very successful gift card program. The large decline in Wyoming was due to a 2023 licensee buy-in ahead of the states ERP implementation in September. The West Virginia decline stems from a Special Pricing Program run in August 2023 that did not occur in 2024. With the fewer selling days most categories declined in August with the exceptions of Scotch +1.4%, Irish +1.0% and Tequila +4.0%. The growth in Scotch and Irish is due almost entirely to the New Hampshire program. Wines declined at -2.9% in 9L Volume with -2.9% in $Vol returning a flat price mix . Rolling 12-month 9L volume was -6.5% with $Vol at -2.6% resulting in a positive +3.9% price mix. The declines in large format =>1.5L for August was -4.7% in 9L volume vs regular 750ml bottle size and smaller at -2.4%. The on-premise spirits channel declined by -5.8% in 9L volume with a -6.1% decline in $Vol resulting in negative 0.2% price mix. The on-premise wine channel declined similarly in 9L volume at -6.5% and a -5.5% $Vol decline resulting in a positive +1.0% price mix.  Full details by state are available at https://lnkd.in/eWKrCa_v Behind the categories: The New Hampshire Gift Card Program, run in August was so successful that two spirit categories, Scotch and Irish achieved positive growth due nearly entirely to this state’s sale.

I've got a question for spirits professionals: In view of the apparent stalling of alcohol sales overall (https://lnkd.in/g6FNnKQ3); and sales troubles even at MGP, including their brown goods (https://lnkd.in/gp7qBXED), do you think the distilling capacities in Kentucky and perhaps in the entire US are getting excessive? Would it lead to down pressure on whiskey prices and spirits prices overall? Besides, since we are about to enter new tariff wars in 2025, I think that the hopes for selling excess liquid overseas are dimming, no?

Premium Spirits - Premiumisation ‘stalls’ for spirits in US in 2023 Twelve-month spirits sales inch up 0.2% to US$37.7bn. Volumes from full-year 2023 rise 1.2% to 308.8m nine-litre cases Sales in the country last year were flat compared to 2022, while volumes increased by just over 1% overall. Of greater concern to brand owners will be the claim that sales at the super-premium end of the price ladder were down 4.3% as 'value' spirits registered an 8.4% lift in sales by value #alcoholicbeverages #spirits #premiumspirits #drinksindustry #spiritueux #beverageindustry

Drinks Sales Dip Again But LAD Categories Hold Up Britain’s On Premise ended February with another small year-on-year decline in sales, with solid beer and cider numbers not quite compensating for a sharp drop in spirits. CGA by NIQ’s Daily Drinks Tracker shows average sales in managed venues in the week to last Saturday (2 March) were 2% below the equivalent period in 2023. This follows a 5% drop over the previous seven days, and three weeks of flat or marginal growth before that. The last week of February was a mixed picture for sales, with growth on four of the seven days—peaking at 2% on Thursday (29 February). However, wet weather dampened sales on other days and it was another modest weekend of trading, with sales down by 2% year-on-year on both Friday and Saturday (1 and 2 March). Category-wise, beer (up 1%) and cider (up 0.1%) were both ahead of 2023 for the sixth week in a row. Wine (down 0.2%) was solid too, while soft drinks were down 5%. The spirits category continues to run far behind other segments, with sales down by 11% year-on-year. “February was another challenging month for suppliers and operators, with consumers’ confidence still very much in recovery,” says Jonathan Jones, CGA by NIQ’s managing director, UK and Ireland. “While LAD categories have been fairly resilient this year, the changes we have seen in the market landscape and the shifting dynamics of occasions that consumers are visiting for, have made sales growth more challenging for Spirits. With Spring, St Patrick’s Day, UK public holidays and some big sporting occasions all looming, and the weather hopefully brightening, we can be hopeful that consumers’ spending will pick up soon.” Read More:

This is a not-so-optimistic forecast for the USA spirits industry. Spirits volume declined by 3% in the US in the first 7 months of 2024. The year is projected to be finished with a 5.65% fall for the full year. 2025 is expected to be challenging, too, stabilising the decline at 5.6%. To increase the industry anxiety, the premiumisation we have been observing for over a decade has stalled in key categories. My question is, will the premium craft spirits survive? What do you think? #drinks #drinksindustry #spirits #forecasts #markets #usmarket https://lnkd.in/d-6W_vzZ