And YET we keep mindlessly pouring capital into this genre - why?! Yes, its the biggest genre. Its also the most satuated, the most competitive, and has the biggest, most well established teams executing at high quality. Meanwhile, many other genres can't get funded. Why? Its the "core gamer bias" I often talk about - investors are shooter players, so they want to be involved in making a shooter. They don't have the same passion, for example, about making cozy games. So even if cozy is a completely neglected genre with less competition and a higher chance of success, investors don't UNDERSTAND it and people tend not to invest in things they don't understand. Also, this is a great insight for any game… "How can we use *systems* to operate *over* content and extract as much retention as possible from a single piece of content?" Phillip Black I'm getting this tattooed on my forehead. Or perhaps will just get a hat made with it.
𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝟰𝟬% 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁-𝗖𝗢𝗩𝗜𝗗, and no one new is winning. Where do shooters go next? Adam Telfer convenes a panel with Devan Brennan, Chris Sides, and me to discuss the genre's next step. There's a heavy focus on the supply side: teams must make enough widgets to survive. The "we'll grow it after launch" era of Siege and Warframe keeps seducing teams, but that window has closed. Chris Sides suggests the first three months should be unsustainable from a content perspective (stockpile!). LoL was doing weekly hero releases at launch. When's the last game to be this aggressive? Another vector is examining the "productivity of content." I'll write more about this, but we should model the ability of a piece of content to generate units of retention. Not all content is created equal, and it's safe to assume heroes drive more retention than cosmetic hats. Teams obsess over gameplay innovation but miss the crucial math: how many engagement hours does each development hour generate? If a cosmetic hat takes three months to create, it better drive serious playtime. But how can we use *systems* to operate *over* content and extract as much retention as possible from a single piece of content? The extraction shooter question rears a genuine innovation in stakes and out-of-round progression for shooter players. But Tarkov's numbers are modest; we're seeing teams chase a thesis without a proven ceiling and still unable to solve the genre's core accessibility problems. Link to Adam's piece and the podcast episode is in the comments!
Cheers to that. BG3 was a hit; we need VC to chase extremely long character-driven CRPGs (for me).
Ah… would they not all like to know, lol.
I will happily contribute to the tattoo fund 😂
Game Economist at Game Economist Consulting
4wI hear you on personal genre preference, but live-service cozy doesn't seem like higher expected value. Palia is donezo. Need big pies to justify more swings.