Kevin Cresswell’s Post

In my latest article published in Security Studies, I draw on captured documents from Usama bin Ladin's compound to evaluate whether and how decentralized command relationships and scarce resources undermine terrorist group adaptation to surveillance and strike capabilities. The analysis reveals that al-Qaeda failed to adapt to the U.S. drone campaign because its leaders lacked the internal control or funds to do so. These shortcomings led to recurring, avoidable, and, from the perspective of al-Qaeda’s senior leaders, immensely frustrating, mistakes. Beyond providing an amendment to theories of counterterrorism success and failure, the results imply that getting the “right” alignment of posture, policies, and technologies that enable robust lethal targeting campaigns may be insufficient for the U.S. and its allies/partners to effectively degrade and contain terrorist groups going forward. For those unaware, this is the last of what turned out to be a series of articles I published using the UBL documents to answer questions related to al-Qaeda, its external partnerships, and the effectiveness of U.S. counterterrorism efforts. The research was a lot of fun. https://lnkd.in/eksgZvz4

**Observing Anti-Terrorism Day - India – May 21st** Today, on Anti-Terrorism Day, we stand united in our commitment to combat terrorism in all its forms. Terrorism poses a grave threat to global peace, security, and human rights, affecting countless lives across the world: **India:** - **Loss of Lives:** Terrorist attacks have claimed thousands of lives, causing immense suffering to families and communities. - **Economic Disruption:** Terrorism disrupts economic activities, leading to significant financial losses and hindering development. - **Social Division:** Terrorist acts often aim to create fear and division among different communities, undermining social harmony. **USA:** - **National Security Threat:** Terrorism poses a continuous threat to national security, requiring constant vigilance and robust counter-terrorism measures. - **Psychological Impact:** The fear and anxiety generated by terrorist threats affect the mental well-being of individuals and communities. - **Policy and Resource Allocation:** Significant resources are allocated to counter-terrorism efforts, impacting other areas of public spending. **Strategies to Eliminate or Reduce Terrorism:** **For Leaders:** - **Promote International Cooperation:** Foster global alliances and cooperation to share intelligence, resources, and best practices in counter-terrorism efforts. - **Address Root Causes:** Tackle the underlying factors that fuel terrorism, such as poverty, inequality, and political instability. - **Strengthen Security Measures:** Enhance security infrastructure, law enforcement capabilities, and intelligence gathering to prevent and respond to terrorist threats. - **Engage in Counter-Narratives:** Develop and promote narratives that counter extremist ideologies and prevent radicalization. **For Individuals:** - **Stay Informed and Vigilant:** Be aware of the signs of radicalization and report suspicious activities to authorities. - **Promote Peace and Tolerance:** Encourage dialogue and understanding among diverse communities to build a culture of peace and mutual respect. - **Support Victims of Terrorism:** Provide support and solidarity to victims and survivors of terrorism to help them rebuild their lives. **For Governments:** - **Implement Comprehensive Counter-Terrorism Policies:** Develop and enforce robust policies that address all aspects of terrorism, from prevention to rehabilitation. - **Invest in Education and Economic Development:** Create opportunities for education and employment to reduce the appeal of extremist ideologies. - **Strengthen Legal Frameworks:** Ensure that laws and regulations are in place to effectively prosecute terrorists and dismantle their networks. By working together, we can build a safer, more secure world free from the scourge of terrorism. Let’s honor this Anti-Terrorism Day. #AntiTerrorismDay #GlobalSecurity #Peace #CounterTerrorism #Unity #Leadership

A three-day event hosted by the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) convened in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, from April 16th to 18th, 2024, focused on bolstering legal frameworks to counter Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) terrorism. Approximately 80 participants from 16 countries, along with experts from entities such as the U.S. Department of Energy and Department of Justice, Indonesia, Mongolia, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNNL), Viet Nam, UNOCT, and UNODC, convened for the workshop. The primary objective of the workshop was to enhance the capabilities of ARF participants in preventing, detecting, and responding to CBRN terrorism threats, which present significant challenges to both national and global peace and security. The event was part of a joint initiative by the European Union and the United Nations, focusing on 'Promoting Universalization and Effective Implementation of ICSANT'. Funded by the European Union, this project operates within the framework of the @UNOCT Global Programme on Countering Terrorist Use of Weapons, supporting member states in capacity building to fortify legal frameworks and enhance nuclear security. Named "Steppe Lotus," the operational-level workshop featured presentations, panel discussions, and a tabletop exercise aimed at exploring avenues for improved cooperation and coordination among ARF participants and international organizations in combating CBRN terrorism and associated non-State actor nonproliferation concerns. Participants had the opportunity to acquaint themselves with key international legal instruments, notably the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism (ICSANT). The workshop provided insights into areas such as criminalization, jurisdiction over specified offenses, obligations concerning extradition and prosecution, and the importance of cooperation at both national and international levels. "Steppe Lotus" was jointly organized by the Governments of Mongolia, the United States of America, and Vietnam, in collaboration with the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Centre (UNCCT) of the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT), and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), with co-funding from the European Union. #EU #CBRN #CBRNE #Counterterrorism #terrorism United Nations #vietnam #international #defense #defence #military #lawenforcement U.S. Department of State #security CBRNE ATLANTIC BRIDGE (CAB)

The imminent specter of long-range stand-off terrorism looms large on the horizon. An excellent study by Combating Terrorism Center looks at this threat in detail. This threat vector is not only discernible at present but is poised to intensify over the next decade, posing an increasingly formidable challenge as advancements in commercial technologies grant non-state entities greater access to extended ranges. Although initial adoption may be restricted, limiting the threat's immediate scope, long-range stand-off terrorism holds allure for certain extremists due to its potential to open new avenues of attack, facilitate surprise, and unleash a potent, psychologically impactful 'we can strike you from afar' message. The present juncture calls for strategic contemplation and concerted efforts to preemptively address this evolving threat. A critical aspect that demands attention is the exploration of the 'art of the possible.' This involves assessing potential scenarios and developing proactive measures to mitigate the looming menace effectively. #terrorism #terrorists #military #defense #defence #technology #asymmetric #warfare #CBRN #CBRNE #insurgency #weapons #technology #history #strategic #Psyops #extremism #international CBRNE ATLANTIC BRIDGE (CAB) M2DCON M2DCON Limited Neroshield Inferno Armor

Terrorists continue to use improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to cause destruction, harm, and disruption. The threat is also evolving as violent extremists develop new methods of IED design and use. Efforts to counter terrorist IED attacks in the United States are inhibited by knowledge and capability gaps. The related operational challenges can be addressed by the scientific community through targeted research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) initiatives. The purpose of the report is to identify pathways to mitigate the persistent and evolving terrorist IED threat through targeted RDT&E. This includes the identification and prioritization of the knowledge and capabilities needed to disrupt the chain of events leading up to an IED attack, protect vulnerable targets, and effectively respond to IED incidents. This report is meant to aid efforts to coordinate, synchronize, and deconflict the array of interconnected RDT&E efforts funded across the U.S. government. Source: National Counterterrorism Innovation, Technology, and Education Center (NCITE) https://lnkd.in/gYzrE2cC #explosive #explosives #cbrne #terrorism #terrorists #IED #IEDs #highthreat #threat #threats #target #tactics #report #research #resource #attack #attacks #violence #counterterrorism #publicsafety #firstresponders

FROM THE COLONEL Dateline, 4 September 2024, Washington, D.C. Indefinable. As we continue towards anniversary, the past two days in D.C., have had absolutely great weather. In fact, yesterday's weather was a high of 77F and 30% humidity --- reminded me of 11 September 2001, which had a high of 79F at 44% humidity --- and --- it also triggered reflections on that day. Indefinable; Discord with Respect to a Single Definition of Terrorism While we all tend to generalize the term "terrorism", the fact of the matter is that "terrorism" has different meanings to different audiences, and is a term used for different purposes. The fluctuating meaning of "terrorism" seemingly contradicts the expectation that the world’s leading powers would have a common convention on defining one of the most salient threats to their national security, and they do and they don't. Yet, as the definition is applied for different purposes, this ebb and flow prompts the question on the feasibility among the international community to gain a single meaning for ‘terrorism’. This question is especially prevalent during a time when the nations of the world need to codify its meaning, in order to build a common framework to defeat a common enemy which is either; *** Continuing to campaign to cause *** Regrouping to campaign again *** Planning and organizing for the next campaign Studying Bruce Hoffman, Michael Mazarr, Walter Lacquer, and others leads to a conclusion of; Nations will not gain unanimity on the definition of terrorism as long as national agendas preclude adoption of a single standard. Confronting terrorism is for the most part an individual national responsibility. Though nations may ally together in an international coalition to confront terrorism, when the attack occurs, it is still a domestic event. This duality is the core complexity associated with convening an international consortium to decide upon a single definition for ‘terrorism’. ATB3 SENDS

Understanding Terrorism as a Business Model: Implications for Counter-Terrorism Strategies As a PhD candidate deeply immersed in the study of international security, I have come to understand that terrorism is not merely a political or ideological phenomenon. Increasingly, it is recognized as a business model that thrives on financial resources, strategic planning, and operational management akin to legitimate enterprises. Terrorism, much like any business, relies on funding. Terrorist organizations generate revenue through various means, including extortion, kidnapping for ransom, drug trafficking, and even legitimate businesses. For instance, the Islamic State (ISIS) generated substantial income from oil sales, taxation, and looting (Johnston & Clarke, 2017). Moreover, terrorist groups invest heavily in recruitment and training to ensure a steady flow of operatives. This aspect mirrors how businesses invest in human resources to maintain and grow their operations. The Taliban, for example, runs a sophisticated recruitment network, offering financial incentives and social services to attract new members (Coll, 2004). Operationally, terrorist groups plan and execute attacks with precision, akin to how companies launch products or services. They leverage modern technology for communication, propaganda, and even cyber-attacks, showcasing a high level of organizational sophistication (Weimann, 2016). Recognizing terrorism as a business model has significant implications for counter-terrorism strategies. Efforts must go beyond military and intelligence operations to include disrupting financial networks, cutting off supply chains, and countering propaganda with strategic communication campaigns. In conclusion, understanding terrorism through the lens of a business model provides a comprehensive perspective that can enhance the effectiveness of counter-terrorism measures. By targeting the financial and operational foundations of these groups, we can undermine their ability to sustain and perpetrate violence. #CounterTerrorism #SecurityStudies #FinancialTerrorism #TerrorismResearch #GlobalSecurity #SecurityStrategy #TerrorismFunding --- **References:** 1. Johnston, P. B., & Clarke, C. P. (2017). *The Islamic State's Money Machine: How ISIS Steers Its Finances.* RAND Corporation. Retrieved from [RAND](https://www.rand.org). 2. Coll, S. (2004). *Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden.* Penguin Press. 3. Weimann, G. (2016). *Terrorism in Cyberspace: The Next Generation.* Columbia University Press.

A 5,000-strong brigade costing $2.3 billion annually or to deploy an on-demand force at a cost of $360 million ? These are the questions the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS Commission), under the leadership of President Tinubu and Dr. Omar A Touray faces as they consider options for a counter-terrorism force. While the potential benefits are undeniable, the logistical and financial hurdles are significant. Can ECOWAS bridge the gap between ambition and reality ? What new approach is needed to combat the evolving threat of terrorism in West Africa ? Let's explore some instruments: https://lnkd.in/e3_C9rr2

Understanding Terrorism as a Business Model: Implications for Counter-Terrorism Strategies As a PhD candidate deeply immersed in the study of international security, I have come to understand that terrorism is not merely a political or ideological phenomenon. Increasingly, it is recognized as a business model that thrives on financial resources, strategic planning, and operational management akin to legitimate enterprises. Terrorism, much like any business, relies on funding. Terrorist organizations generate revenue through various means, including extortion, kidnapping for ransom, drug trafficking, and even legitimate businesses. For instance, the Islamic State (ISIS) generated substantial income from oil sales, taxation, and looting (Johnston & Clarke, 2017). Moreover, terrorist groups invest heavily in recruitment and training to ensure a steady flow of operatives. This aspect mirrors how businesses invest in human resources to maintain and grow their operations. The Taliban, for example, runs a sophisticated recruitment network, offering financial incentives and social services to attract new members (Coll, 2004). Operationally, terrorist groups plan and execute attacks with precision, akin to how companies launch products or services. They leverage modern technology for communication, propaganda, and even cyber-attacks, showcasing a high level of organizational sophistication (Weimann, 2016). Recognizing terrorism as a business model has significant implications for counter-terrorism strategies. Efforts must go beyond military and intelligence operations to include disrupting financial networks, cutting off supply chains, and countering propaganda with strategic communication campaigns. In conclusion, understanding terrorism through the lens of a business model provides a comprehensive perspective that can enhance the effectiveness of counter-terrorism measures. By targeting the financial and operational foundations of these groups, we can undermine their ability to sustain and perpetrate violence. #CounterTerrorism #SecurityStudies #FinancialTerrorism #TerrorismResearch #GlobalSecurity #SecurityStrategy #TerrorismFunding --- References: 1. Johnston, P. B., & Clarke, C. P. (2017). *The Islamic State's Money Machine: How ISIS Steers Its Finances.* RAND Corporation. Retrieved from (https://www.rand.org). 2. Coll, S. (2004). *Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden.* Penguin Press. 3. Weimann, G. (2016). *Terrorism in Cyberspace: The Next Generation.* Columbia University Press.

The fight against terrorism is structured into four distinct phases, each playing a crucial role in addressing the complex phenomenon of terrorism. While often collectively referred to as counterterrorism, these phases encompass broader strategies and actions that go beyond mere counterterrorism efforts. Counterterrorism is in fact the act of fighting terrorists while preventing an attack is not part of this. The first phase focuses on preventive measures aimed at averting potential terrorist activities. This includes blended threat and risk assessment, vulnerability assessment, crisis management, disaster recovery and crisis response. Implementing business continuity strategies and security measures to mitigate risks. They are all preventive actions aiming to create a resilient framework that can deter radicalisation and thwart potential attacks before they occur. Counterterrorism response is the second phase only. It is activated by an incident. This phase involves an immediate response by law enforcement or the military that neutralise the threat, and incident management, similar to disaster recovery in organisations. This phase is characterised by swift actions to manage the aftermath of an attack, ensuring public safety and restoring order. Counterterrorism is thus defined by its reactive nature, responding specifically to incidents of terrorism. The third phase involves prosecution, where law enforcement agencies and judicial systems reconstruct the facts, put together the pieces of a complex puzzle to identify the vulnerability which escaped the previous assessments and adjust the system. Authorities gather evidence and reconstruct events surrounding the attack to understand vulnerabilities that may have been overlooked. Perpetrators are prosecuted under laws specifically addressing terrorist activities, which often carry harsher penalties due to their intent to instil fear. This phase is similar to a recovery process in business, where lessons learned from incidents lead to improved practices and policies. The final phase, perhaps the most challenging one, involves de-radicalisation and reintegration of individuals who have been involved in or influenced by terrorism. This phase emphasises societal resilience, with programs designed to reintegrate former extremists into society, which help reduce recidivism rates and foster community involvement against radical ideologies. It is a long-term and costly investment. Nevertheless, this phase is probably the most important one for sustainable peace, as it addresses the root causes of radicalisation through education, community support, and engagement initiatives. #terrorism #justice #lawenforcement #counterterrorism #policy