The Machine is Working Well The CLO machine is cranking out deal flow at a steady pace that is well ahead of 2023. CLO global new issue volume will likely exceed $225B (~$180B through Q3/’24), which is well above $144B issued in 2023. AAAs are trading at their tightest spreads of the year, and this not only includes BSL, but also privately issued loans. CLO issuance in the U.S. has been running at a pace of ~4x the issuance in Europe. There are ~100 credit managers issuing CLOs in U.S. market and ~50 managing CLOs in Europe. The CLO market is open for business. CLO managers are evaluating >600B+ originally issued in 2018-2023 to assess the value-add of a potential 5-year additional maturity reset with added potential to tighten spreads on their liabilities which can be a big boost for CLO equity returns. Looking forward, the next vintage of CLO deals looks favorable as expectations for improving credit metrics will likely result in lower default rates in the next 2 years compared with the past two years. The CLO machine is working well, cranking out deals as AAA-BB tranches are performing strongly, while the Equity tranche is generating impressive cash flow.
Would love to connect, Bruce.
Founder @ The People's Economist | MBA, Top Ranked Wall Street Analyst, Personal Finance, journalist
2moCurious if ANY of the rating agencies have materially tightened their CLO criteria. Likely not. Hence the boom in issuance.