The development of connectivity is an amazing story - from the 1794 optical telegraph between Paris and Lille to the launch of Starlink low-earth orbit satellite based broadband in 2020. Networks and demand have become more heterogeneous, whilst European policy has focussed on gigabit fibre and 5G targets for 2030. Yet the belief that underpinned this focus, that traffic and peak bandwidth demand would continue growing exponentially, has not held up. Supply, for many, is now ahead of demand; and an EU White Paper (2024) observed that achievement of the 2030 targets is now "in doubt". This note by Robert Kenny and myself explores the future of connectivity and concludes that a nimbler approach, less focussed on long-term targets and plans, and more focussed on adapting policy as supply side possibilities and valued demand side applications are revealed, should be pursued. In the short-term, error-correction is called for.
Excellent paper which echoes a bunch of points I’ve made as well Good to see references to indoor wireless, slowing data demand growth, and the potential for AI to reduce data loads by better compression & on-device inferencing.
Very interesting. Might contact you about this.
5G & LTE Cyber-Security | SecurityGen CTO
5moBrian Williamson, thank you for sharing! Is it really true that the value of increasing broadband speed is diminishing? It seems like computing power and transmission bandwidth have always been destined to increase, as applications are less optimized and highly resource-intensive, and the traffic generated has no limits, with everything needed and not needed being transmitted in all directions. Where is my assessment wrong?