Brian Hanratty’s Post

Let’s hope the Hong Kong IPO market does pick up. For those contemplating an IPO a well structured Pre IPO trust can be very useful. Even if the IPO does not happen succession planning and asset protection can also be improved by such planning. Contact me for more info. #trusts #IPO

Hong Kong's IPO market may 'rebound' in the second half but it still won't be as booming as what most expected and hoped 6 months back. Many have adjusted their forecasts to a more modest bet. #ipo #hk #markets #hkex #newlistings #hongkong

Who would buy an IPO? As things are, it's essentially gambling. The weakness of Europe's IPO market can no longer be blamed on cycles, nor on regulators. The market's own practices are at fault: they seem designed to create a playground for hedge funds, not a stable, sensible environment for mainstream, long term investors. It doesn't have to stay this way. Free comment. #equitycapitalmarkets #equity #stockmarkets #privateequity #hedgefunds Golden Goose London Stock Exchange Borsa Italiana Permira J.P. Morgan Bank of America UBS Mediobanca Craig Coben https://lnkd.in/e5JQzugt

Last week saw the release of a paper from the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change and Onward who believe that the UK risks falling behind due to the chronic inability of its capital markets to scale companies and calls for London’s AIM market to be replaced with a rapid route to the LSE for high-growth. For many medium sized businesses, AIM has been the solution to rapid growth, but it is not without significant costs, financial and otherwise. 2025 is predicted to see a surge in IPOs and AIM listings - which puts demands on the need for high quality, experienced and pragmatic NEDs across the board. Our blog talks about the implications of the return of a buoyant IPO and AIM market, and why 2025 may just become the Year of The NED. https://lnkd.in/eSQYTvtV

https://lnkd.in/eebY8t4G A great colour piece here on Stockomendation & Investegate, a research tool that is used by so many private investors and needs to be cheered as London fights to see liquidity imporved. John Blowers Paul Roberts #capitalmarkets #liquidity

Why are companies delisting or turning their back on London?   Those who follow the London stock market will be aware that a growing number of companies are delisting or turning their backs on London and looking towards the US. The AIM market is an area of significant concern due to a number of issues that have always existed but have recently started to have a greater impact.   Comparable valuations   While it is dangerous to take a blanket approach when comparing company valuations in London and New York, the gap is growing on average. Even those companies that have confirmed their commitment to the London stock market, one of the major markets in the world, are under pressure from institutional shareholders to review their plans. A new trend has already formed, making it easier for companies to make that choice today and switch their primary listing overseas.   Liquidity issues   There is a particular focus on small company markets such as AIM, but there is liquidity issues with some larger companies listed on the primary market. In what quickly becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, institutional investors are reluctant to commit funds to illiquid shares. When it comes to financial advice, advisers now have a more defined role in protecting client investments, again reducing future investment in illiquid shares. You can see the trends emerging and likely strengthening going forward.   New Listings   Even though the government and the stock exchange are working together to reduce red tape and make London more attractive to new issues, this is challenging. To put this into perspective, new companies raised £12 billion on the London Stock Exchange in 2021. This fell to £338 million in 2022, and this year so far, it stands at just £18.5 million. It will take a monumental effort by the UK government, the London Stock Exchange, and the FCA to change this trend.   Summary   Institutional and private investors are always interested in potentially high-reward investments, but the valuation gap and growing illiquidity issues are forcing many to look overseas. As more companies look towards the US, the NASDAQ, and other more focused exchanges, London's attractions continue to fall while overseas markets become more popular.

Golden Goose: Craig Coben dissects why Permira and a host of seven investment banks failed to lay the golden egg. "This offering seemingly had everything going for it: star power, fashion appeal, exceptional financial performance, and a €100m cornerstone order from Invesco. The IPO was touted as one of the highlights of 2024." "Despite these promising signs, the IPO faced a stark reality: the order book lacked demand from fundamental, “long-only” institutions. And Golden Goose’s controlling shareholder Permira couldn’t afford another capital markets turkey after the London flotation of Doc Martens." "The seven (!) IPO bookrunners sought to reassure the market, insisting that the offering had been multiple times oversubscribed at and above that level. There is absolutely no reason to doubt the veracity of that statement. But there’s every reason to ask what this “market colour” actually means: it’s obvious a lot of that demand consisted of puffed-up orders from long-short hedge funds who play the new issue calendar, along with a smattering of interest from family offices and private banking accounts." "Like a lot of private equity houses, Permira has an uneven track record with European IPOs." "Golden Goose wasn’t an attractive enough company for investors to cut Permira much slack. It is perceived as a pretty good — but not a must-own — asset: several investors cited, for example, fashion risk and product concentration, along with its small size and niche market position, as key concerns, and stock would be a midcap in Milan, with limited liquidity in the after-market." "And this leads to the next issue for European flotations: midcap IPOs have less margin for error. Investors have seen how volumes dry up and so are careful not to take on too large of a position. They also demand greater price concessions." "The deal may have been oversubscribed, but if the underwriters had put out the deal stock, Golden Goose would have almost certainly laid a big egg. A double-digit percentage decline on the first day would’ve been a bad look for a luxury firm and a devastating reputational event for Permira." "A third factor weighed on the deal, and it was outside the control of Golden Goose, Permira and the army of underwriters: the day after Golden Goose set its price range, French President Emmanuel Macron called a snap parliamentary election after far-right parties had outperformed in European elections." "In sum, Permira and Golden Goose probably did the market a big favour by pulling the deal and sparing investors an immediate mark-to-market loss. The failed flotation leaves an open verdict as to whether the market is open to the substantial number of midcap IPOs in the pipeline." #ecm #equity

Equity capital markets are celebrating the huge success of CVC's IPO but behind the scenes what looked like a strong week for ECM revealed there are some issues with Europe's IPO market around valuation. Luz Saude was one of three IPOs that should have been priced this window, but didn't, with sellers in all three rejecting investor valuations for their assets. But even CVC decided to take a big concession to peers to ensure success and other sellers may have to do the same if they really want to get an IPO across the line. Read all in this week's ECM Pulse.

A timely visit by the London Stock Exchange. Thanks to Thom Abbott for seeing us in Hong Kong and thanks to the others who connected online from the LSE and Dorsey London Mark Taylor. There is a lot of buzz to consider London's LSE for primary and secondary listing by Hong Kong, PRC and Asian companies. #hongkong #london #LSE #londonstockexchange #listing #IPO #fundraising #deals #international #capitalmarkets