Benny Hillman’s Post

- Given the escalation of conflict in the Middle East and rising tensions between Israel and its neighbors, how do you assess the role of major global powers, such as the U.S. and the EU, in this region? What steps should be taken to prevent the conflict from spreading to a wider international level? - Conflicts and wars within the Middle East have always generated the intervention of external powers and the threat of proxy wars. Thus China’s growing influence in the region, exemplified by its brokering of Iran-Saudi restoration of relations and their entry into the BRICS. Washington will of course retain its strategic relationship with Israel. And the wars in Gaza and Lebanon enhance Iran’s role while also enhancing Russia’s support. The external powers need to restrain regional actors, most obviously Iran and Israel. - Amid China’s growing influence in Africa and Asia, especially through the Belt and Road Initiative, what risks and opportunities do you see for Europe in the current competition for economic and political influence? How should the EU strategically respond to this initiative? - Europe is experiencing dramatic relative economic decline, greatly exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, the loss of the largest consumer market in Europe and, above all, the massive increase in energy costs as a result of the loss of Nordstream 1 and 2. All of these factors have produced serious deindustrialization, notably of course in Germany. At the same time, the USA seeks to de-couple itself, but also Europe, from China, again impacting most severely on Germany. Europe needs to transcend its “vassal status” (ECFR, 2023) especially in the context of a Trump presidency. Yet, the transatlantic economy accounts for one-third of world trade as well as GDP. https://lnkd.in/dTMZVQs7

Choose between stability and ‘downward spiral,’ China tells Blinken during Beijing trip By Jennifer Hansler and Simone McCarthy, CNN Updated 10:29 AM EDT, Fri April 26, 2024 U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People, in Beijing, China, April 26, 2024. CNN — Chinese leader Xi Jinping said the US and China should be “partners rather than adversaries” as he met with top American diplomat Antony Blinken in Beijing’s cavernous Great Hall of the People on Friday. The meeting, which took place on the final day of Blinken’s three–day visit to China, comes as the two countries seek to continue to stabilize rocky relations and expand communication – including on a host of contentions from technology to Taiwan. “China would like to see a confident, open and prosperous United States. We hope that the United States will view China’s development in a positive light,” Xi told Blinken. Anthony: I have a great deal of respect and admiration for President Xi. He is a good man and a great leader. The United States is not doing well. Our country is literally falling apart due to incompetence, rascism and greed. We should work with the Chinese. If we partner with them we will accomplish great things together.

Op-Ed: The Fallacies of Strategic Ambiguity Strategic ambiguity is often lauded as a means of preserving geopolitical stability. It is in reality, increasingly proving to be a dangerous, destabilising force. By maintaining vague and non-committal stances, particularly in the context of US-China relations, adopting such a posture risks deepening mistrust and accelerating the two states toward what is commonly referred to as the Thucydides Trap. This concept, rooted in the historical analysis of conflict between rising and established powers, suggests that the trajectory of US-China relations, if left unchecked, may lead to inevitable confrontation, to the detriment of the rest of the world. The topic of Taiwan, at the center of this rivalry, is not an international crisis in itself, but rather a long standing internal issue that has unfortunately been tactically leveraged to provoke and justify direct, adversarial engagement with Beijing. For decades, the US has simultaneously upheld its recognition of the one-China policy while strategically obscuring its intentions. This duality creates an atmosphere of suspicion, exacerbating tensions between the two states. Taiwan’s prominence in the semiconductor industry further complicates this dynamic, as it becomes a critical asset in the US' strategy to rally international opposition against China. From Washington's perspective, Beijing's growing economic and technological influence poses a direct threat to its long-standing global hegemony, and Taiwan is being positioned as a geopolitical chess piece in this broader struggle for dominance. However, the pursuit of conflict serves only a select few. Those with vested interests in the military-industrial complex stand to profit, while the global community is left to bear the brunt of such aggressive posturing. War-mongering not only threatens international stability but also disregards the broader interests of peace and cooperation. What the world requires now are not megalomaniacs perpetuating cycles of conflict, but statesmen and women who possess the foresight and vision to guide the world through an era marked by unprecedented global interconnectivity. Let us not undo the decades of prosperity which globalisation and multilateralism have brought upon us, and seize the opportunity for collective peace, stability, and economic success, which is ever closer within reach than at any other point in modern history. The challenge lies in rejecting short-term power struggles in favour of a long-term commitment to fostering an international environment where emerging states can thrive in peace, thereby advancing global prosperity.

I am pleased to share my report titled "G7 Leaders Address Global Issues at Italia 2024 Summit," which was published in The Diplomatic Insight This report discusses the 2024 G7 Summit held in Apulia, Italy, and examines global issues such as the Ukraine Crisis, the Palestine War, economic factors, and more, as addressed by G7 countries. https://lnkd.in/evywu8Uw

The White House needs to show working Reports from Washington on Friday suggest that President Joe Biden is set to visit Angola in a few weeks. This would be the first visit by a U.S. president to Africa since 2015. The underlying geopolitical issue is that the United States needs to catch up to China in the region. While Biden’s planned visit is a step forward, it is still behind China on the continent. Chinese President Xi Jinping has visited the continent 10 times, and just last week, Beijing hosted African leaders for a state visit and business summit. While China has faced sharp criticism for "debt-trapping" tactics in the region, Beijing has evolved its strategy from transactional loans to investment and public-private partnerships. During last week's summit, China pledged $50 billion in investments over the next 3 years. Additionally, Beijing is pushing for the adoption of the Chinese yuan in bilateral trade and the integration of more African countries into the BRICS economic group. And infrastructural investments such as the $1 billion railway line in Zambia. In contrast, U.S. relations with Africa appear strained, even stagnant. In the last two months, U.S. troops were kicked out of Niger, and Sudan’s President ghosted the U.S.-led peace talks in Geneva. These are signs of deepening frustration among African leaders with American diplomacy, the emphasis on democracy seems to lack the economic and investment impact needed on the continent. Africa is a critical player in the modern world. For instance, 70% of the world’s cobalt resources, which are critical for powering electric vehicles and smartphones, are extracted from the Democratic Republic of Congo. China’s ability to recognize this and act accordingly has put Beijing ahead of Washington in terms of influence on the continent. If Washington wants to reclaim any semblance of influence in Africa, it must show working!

US does not want to share the world. It says that it is willing IF China plays by its rules. Which is to be a Big Japan. (Sit down, shut up, follow the program, be seen and not heard.) "China-US relations deteriorated around late 2017. Around that time, there were two major reports in Washington – one was in December by the State Department, in December 2017, the other was by the [Department of Defence] in the following months, in January 2018. These two documents argued that the previous engagement policy with China failed and did not yield the results as the US had planned or expected." Of course, China finds this unbearable. The US does not subject itself to its own rules, so why should China? This is not to say that China is blameless or occupying SCS is justified, just because. "Therefore, the geopolitical challenges should now return to the centrepiece. Between China and Russia, Russia is a regional power and China is a global power. So therefore, China is the most formidable challenge or even an enemy. That’s the policy change." Not true. It is one major dynamic, but as Oct 7th, the closure of the Red Sea, and last week's concert hall terrorist act in Moscow shows - non-state actors are also active - and can throw a spanner in the works. But all these tensions arise from the fact that China is a new global power. Akin to Germany rising to challenge the British Empire at the turn of the last century. "[T]he US has never, since the end of World War II, confronted a rivalry so comprehensive and all-rounded like China. China’s challenge includes its economic, military, science and technology, and now you see – [the] ambassador said – also ideological or even political power. Some people in the US even talk about culture challenge. While I disagree with the view of a cultural or an ideological challenge, it’s comprehensive." "Now, the second reason is US domestic reasons. If the United States is in a good shape – if the American political system, the economy, society, political culture and many other things are in a good shape – then we don’t care about China’s different political system, different ideology, different economic model." This is also important. US does not even view Russia as a major threat - a threat to regional stability; because relatively speaking Russia vs USA in 2024 is not the same as USSR vs USA in 1984. And finally, the outsourcing to China hollowed out America - creating MAGA. Again, it was the scale, the speed and the greed of corporations driven by profit maximisation - that caused that to happen (along with the lobbied politicians). (con't)

China’s growing influence in the Middle East 29 Jul 2024 | Gedaliah Afterman and Allie Weinberger As Beijing’s economic clout in the Middle East has grown, so has the recognition by regional powers  of China’s strategic value. Middle Eastern leaders, increasingly disillusioned with policies of the United States—including its invasion of Iraq in 2003, support for the Arab Spring in 2011, hurried exit from Afghanistan and withdrawal from nuclear negotiations with Iran—have turned towards China as a potentially more reliable partner. For Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries especially, the relationship with China has become strategic rather than opportunistic. China’s ability and willingness to cooperate with regional players without imposing political or human rights ideals align with the visions of Middle Eastern leaders. This strategic approach suggests a reorientation of regional relationships and positions, in which China is gaining prominence as a key economic and developmental partner. The Western perspective on China’s role in the Middle East has shifted over time, too. Initially seen as a non-threatening free-rider benefiting from US security infrastructure, China is now viewed as a significant challenger to US and Western interests in the region. This shift reflects Beijing’s growing economic and strategic influence, especially as the United States has reduced its energy imports from the Middle East, allowing China to fill the gap. China’s trade with the six-member GCC bloc has drastically surged, increasing from $10 billion in 2000 to more than $230 billion in 2021, further contributing to the erosion of Western influence in the region. China’s increasing interest in technology and its aspiration for technological autonomy have also significantly affected its relationship with the Middle East. Washington’s efforts to end the fighting in Gaza and promote regional normalisation are part of a broader US strategy aimed at stabilising the Middle East and launching a US-led economic strategy for the region that could counter China’s growing influence. Looking ahead, while China’s strategic manoeuvres in the Middle East have garnered public support and challenged the United States, their long-term impact remains uncertain. The region’s complex dynamics and the critical role of US political and military power suggest that China’s influence may face significant limitations. As the geopolitical landscape evolves, and the region becomes ever more important, the interplay between Chinese ambitions and American responses will continue to shape the future of the Middle East.

A Call for Peace as a Strategic Priority for all Businesses:- The war in Ukraine, the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict - these aren't just humanitarian crises, they're flashing red lights for the global economy. While many businesses seem to be in "wait and see" mode, the reality is these conflicts are already impacting us all. Here's the Wake-Up Call: Supply Chain Disruptions: Sanctions, conflict zones, and rising energy prices are wreaking havoc on global supply chains. Delays and shortages are driving up costs across industries. Consumer Confidence Crash: Uncertainty breeds fear. As people watch the news unfold, their spending habits tighten, impacting everything from retail to travel. Inflationary Spiral: Disrupted energy supplies and rising food prices are pushing inflation higher. This erodes purchasing power and further weakens economies. Peace Isn't Just a Hippie Dream, It's Smart Business The business world needs to actively advocate for peace. Here's how: Lobby for Diplomacy: Urge governments to prioritize diplomatic solutions. Peace creates stability - the foundation of a thriving global economy. Support Peacebuilding Efforts: Invest in organizations working towards conflict resolution. A peaceful world is good for business. Promote Responsible Sourcing: Ensure your supply chains aren't contributing to conflict or human rights abuses. Peace starts with ethical practices. The Bottom Line: Peace isn't just the idealistic wish; it's a strategic imperative. Let's stop sleepwalking into a global recession. Let's champion peace as a vital element of a prosperous business world. #PeaceIsProfitable #BusinessForPeace

I have this new piece for you Please take a read. What is it that Africa has that all external actors want a piece of? 1. Africa is a continent rich in natural resources, cultural diversity, and economic potential, making it a desirable region for external actors to engage with. 2. Last week, the first-ever South Korea-Africa summit happened in Seoul, with representatives from 48 African nations attending and signing nearly 50 initial agreements to enhance cooperation in trade, energy, critical minerals, and various industrial and economic fields. 3. Earlier, the Chinese-Arab summit was held in Beijing, where ties were strengthened, including the adoption of two documents: the Beijing Declaration and the Action Implementation Plan. 4. The Kenyan president was also invited to the U.S. for a state visit, the first of its kind in 16 years, to strengthen ties through various partnerships. 5. Key U.S. officials: the U.S. vice president, U.S. Secretary of State, First Lady Jill Biden, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen all visited Africa to deepen ties through agreements and promises of partnerships and investments. 6. Also, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Deputy Defense Minister Yunus Bek Yevkurov visited key Russian partners in Africa to strengthen Russia’s military footprint on the continent. What is causing this competition? 7. Africa's abundant natural resources, including oil, gas, minerals, and agricultural products, are crucial for global industries and economies, making it an attractive investment and trade destination. 8. With a population of over 1.4 billion people, of which 313 million are classified as middle-class populations, it offers a promising market for consumer goods, services, and infrastructure development. External actors see opportunities to tap into this emerging market for economic growth. 9. The geographic location, access to key trade routes, and proximity to major markets make it strategically important for global powers seeking to expand their influence and presence on the continent. 10. In current geopolitical dynamics, external actors understand that strengthening diplomatic ties and securing alliances with African countries would help advance their political agendas on the international stage. And so, what? 11. African leaders must understand that Africa's potential for economic growth and strategic importance make it a valuable and sought-after partnership by external actors looking to enhance their global power. 12. African leaders must also carefully peruse various agreements and partnership documents to make sure they are signing deals that benefit the continent and its future generations rather than individual selfish interests. #Africa

So there is an article and podcast from Elizabeth Economy 1) The big blind spot is that a lot of people in the US has is to assume that China wants to displace the US as the world leader, and it simply does not. China wants to improve the lives of Chinese, and everything it does is directly related to either a direct threat to Chinese national security or national economy, and China honestly has no interest in running the world. The interesting thing is that I think Trump/Vance understands that better than Biden, because Trump has similar policies in mind for the US. 2) One reason that China and Russia get along is that China truly views Russia as an equal. So China's economy is larger than Russia, but Russia has food and oil (as well as ten times as many nukes), and so the idea that Russia is subordinate to China reveals something about how the US sees the world 3) The other interesting thing is that Economy says that it would be a bad thing if the US *says* that it is trying to overthrow the CCP and change China, but somehow it is okay if that is some sort of secret agenda. The trouble is that somehow not saying that you are going to do something makes everything all right as if the other side isn't going to figure out. 4) Finally, one huge blind spot is that the US wants to reduce China's military power while saying that it doesn't want to hurt China economically. *This is impossible*. The big lesson that China learned from the collapse of the Soviet Union is that national power is based on the strength of the civilian economy, and it is *impossible* to some how separate sanctions against military power without hitting China's civilian economy. 5) Also, there isn't this recognition that national security is linked to economic growth, and again this is the lesson of the Soviet Union. If you have riots and terrorist activity the economy is going to suffer. So there isn't this tradeoff between national security and economic growth, because without national security, you can have no economic growth. https://lnkd.in/g8b_5SMR https://lnkd.in/gReTeYaH