"Last month, Santa Barbara Venture Partners took the unusual step of selling shares of its portfolio companies to generate capital to return to its limited partners. Sales are by no means traditional exits—investors generally expect cash-outs like initial public offerings or acquisitions. But the secondary transactions have shown that SBVP can make money for its investors, said Dan Engel, its founder and managing partner."
OK, I get it - the need to show LP's distributions is understandable, if not always optimal. So far, so good. Then I kept reading. SBVP was launched in 2020 and by 2022 was out raising a second fund. Well that was quick. Engel then noted the "fundraising market began to sour, LPs demanded more proof of traction."
If your LP's expect tangible proofs of traction from a 2 year old early stage venture fund, they don't understand the asset class. Depending on the survey, average time to exit for a venture backed company is 7-10 years. A sale 2 years after investment rarely represents a big win, when such a big win occurs it is pretty much the venture equivalent of winning the lottery. You don't invest with the goal of a big exit in 2 years. However, the issue is not just LP's. Historically venture funds raised every 3-4 years. During the 2021 Bubble this dropped to every 1-2 years. Similarly, companies fundraised every 18-24 months, during the bubble this often dropped to less than a year.
The net of this is the following:
1. Historically, when you fundraised a successor early stage fund, no one expected exits, but you were usually able to show valuation increases because many of your portfolio companies completed at least one follow on round before you started your fundraising.
2. In the current environment, venture fundraising is returning to the 18-24 month time horizon and the down market has in effect extended this through convertible notes/SAFEs/flat rounds. As a result, a two year old fund out there fundraising, not only can't show exits (which LPs should not expect), but in many cases they are not showing valuation increases.
That might explain the large number of first time funds not raising successor funds. These secondary sales might make the picture look "nicer" for the moment (and maybe help some funds raise successor funds), but likely will reduce LP returns in the long term.