Baron’s Post

North Korea has warned of potential military action against South Korea over alleged violations of the western sea border, escalating tensions ahead of a trilateral summit in Seoul. North Korea's supreme military leadership instructed its army to take offensive action, with the threat of exercising self-defensive power at any moment. The warning comes as South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol prepares to hold talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The de facto maritime border in the Yellow Sea has been a longstanding point of contention, with past skirmishes and incidents including a South Korean warship being torpedoed in 2010. North Korea has also accused South Korea and the US of hostile aerial espionage and threatened retaliation against anti-Pyongyang leaflets being sent into North Korea by defectors and activists. These developments reflect ongoing tensions and animosity between the two Koreas. #AsiaRisk #NorthKorea #SouthKorea Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/gNAyD7h6

Chinese air and sea forces are conducting military drills in the disputed South China Sea, following talks between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken aimed at reducing regional tensions. The drills involve early warning and reconnaissance exercises, as well as patrols around Scarborough Shoal, a contested area 200 km off the Philippines' coast. Scarborough Shoal is essential for its rich fishing resources and is claimed by China, although the area is also contested by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. A 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration concluded that China's claims over the South China Sea lack international legal support, yet it did not resolve sovereignty over the shoal, which is traditionally fished by multiple nations. The timing of China's exercises coincides with joint maritime activities announced by Australia, the Philippines, Japan, New Zealand, and the United States in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. During Wang's and Blinken's meeting, concerns regarding China's aggressive actions were addressed, emphasizing the need for improved military communication to prevent conflict. Wang urged the U.S. to avoid provoking tensions, advocating for direct dialogue to resolve differences. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #Japan Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/gFduYbfP

Putin’s Hybrid War Opens a Second Front on NATO’s Eastern Border - “Russia is currently waging two wars,” Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said at a foreign policy forum in Helsinki on June 14. “One is a kinetic, conventional war in Ukraine. The other is a hybrid war in Europe and the West with the aim of influencing the tone of public discourse or in some way shake our sense of security.” - Sending groups of migrants to storm borders; jamming GPS signals; recruiting criminals for petty acts of sabotage: they are part of an expanding repertoire of acts cited by countries from Finland through the Baltic states to Poland and beyond as calibrated to unsettle their citizens. - Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, rather than evidence of imminent military activity, it shows that Russia is “attempting to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt about their intentions in the Baltic Sea.”  - All concerned are having to grapple with disinformation and influence operations at record levels.  - according to Finland’s Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen. “There is no front line in this,” she said. “All of Europe is at war now.” https://lnkd.in/ev9DjJfX

With conflict raging in Northern Burma, and with resistance forces rapidly ejecting a weak and desperate junta regime, we have seen a flurry of Chinese activities over the past several months. In this new piece, I look at the failure of the Chinese facilitated Haigeng Agreement, the ongoing tensions and evolving dynamics between China, the military and northern EAOs, and the implications for democracy and regional security. https://lnkd.in/gfbnrCGq

RUSSIA MUST FACE THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE WAR THEY STARTED, AS NORMALLY HAVE BEEN HAPPENING IN THE HUMAN HISTORY. PERIOD. UKRAINE NEEDS THE WHOLE WORLD HELP AND SUPPORT, SPECIALLY FROM WEST POTENCIES: IT'S ON PAY OF THEIR OWN SECURITY WARRANTY DEMANDS THAT OBLIGATED UKRAINE IN THE PAST TO REFUSE THEIR NUCLEAR WEAPONS, ITS A HUGHE DEBT WEST HAVE TO PAY TO UKRAINE: THEIR NOW WELL-LIVING DEPENDED IN THE PAST OF THIS. PERIOD. REMEMBER: #russiaisaterroriststate

You would think that Russia has enough on its plate with the war in Ukraine but apparently not.   In the early hours of 23 May, Russian border guards removed the buoys placed in the Narva River by Estonian border guards. In order to do this, the Russians had to enter Estonian waters.   It was announced a couple of days ago, that Russia is challenging the delineation of the border between Estonia and Russia in the river. Not only is Estonia a NATO member, it is also host to one of eight NATO battlegroups, known collectively as NATO’s Forward Presence.   So, this is yet another episode of Russia increasing the pressure in another of the grey areas between war and peace. It would be interesting to know how (or if) Estonia and NATO will respond.   https://lnkd.in/gMVftBVZ   #ukrainewar #OSINT

With Myanmar’s military junta losing control of borders with China, Thailand, Bangladesh and India, China is pressing for the 3 Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) and military to engage in a 5th round of talks in Kunming in late April. In my latest @United States Institute of Peace, I look at how China is responding aggressively to shifting dyanmics in Myanmar, and the implications for key resistance actors and neighboring countries. https://lnkd.in/gizPfGTT

Yet another war of words over an incident involving the Australian and Chinese militaries. I’m a bit tired of these events, but I’m also tired of the lack of detail provided by both sides - particularly Australia’s. Where was our ship? Who and what were we travelling with? What were we doing that day? Show me on a map. No military secrets there, the Chinese know where it was, it’s only Australians who don’t. How far into international waters was it? How close to Chinese waters was it? What was the task the helicopter was undertaking? Where were the Chinese ships in relation to ours? Show me. Then I can assess the words of both sides in a clearer context. Were we encroaching? Were they over-reacting? This is serious stuff. Stop treating us like mushrooms! My tax dollars, and yours, are paying for all this. My future and yours are at stake. We have a right to know more.