Aureus FX’s Post

Transcript

On the 4th of July in the UK, the Labour Party secured an expected landslide victory, winning 63% of parliamentary seats with a comparatively low 34% vote share. The UK economy is starting to show signs of momentum, growing faster than any other G7 country in Q1. Consumer confidence is also improving, despite the dip in retail sales, falling from 2.9% to 1.2% in June. Underlying inflation has dropped to meet the NPC's target of 2%. However, the central bank may be hesitant to cut rates as some economists predict inflation to rise to 2.5% by autumn. Sterling fared well in the currency markets throughout the month, hitting a one year high of 130 against the US dollar and hitting A2 year high against the Euro of 1/19. 20 Composite PMI hit 52.7, rebounding slightly from a six month low. This past month we saw some pretty dramatic events surrounding the US presidential election, with Donald Trump narrowly missing being assassinated and the subsequent withdrawal of President Joe Biden from the Democrats campaign, he stated. I believe it's in the best interest of my party and for the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term. US inflation softened from three-point 3% to 3% in July. Following these readings, the US dollar came under heavy selling pressure as expectations increased that the Fed could start to reduce interest rates. From September, however, the attack on Donald Trump raised the levels of political uncertainty, causing a reversal in this trend. Services PMI slumped to 48.8 in June from 53.8 in May later in July, so positive PMI releases, with composite PMI expanding at the strongest rate for two years. In contrast, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5. Political uncertainties in the eurozone are set to continue driving market volatility amid the surprising outcome of the latest French elections. France could now face months of instability after none of the three major parties were able to achieve a majority at the nation's second round voting. The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone eased from 2.6% to 2.5%, so there are some expectations of another interest rate cut from the ECB. Eurozone PMI dropped disappointing expectations, with the manufacturing PMI extending a 16 month period of contraction. As we look ahead to next month, here are some of the key dates and data releases to be aware of.