Ascend Analytics’ Post

DAILY MARKET REPORT - 07/05/2024 A closed market yesterday in the UK for the early Bank Holiday weekend, whilst some European markets continued to trade. That may see some ‘adjustment’ trading today whereby the European markets have increased during the closed market and so the UK market may look to ‘catch up’. A warm week ahead before settling to seasonal normal levels expected. Plenty of Q1 profits being reported by the oil majors in recent days, most of which reporting missing forecasts and/or being below previous quarter reports. Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €31.80 (from €30.91) and the NBP Front Month contract at 74.47p (from 75.46p). No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 294mcm (292). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.1mcm (41.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 63.61% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1. This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole): Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €37 (vs €32 and €36) Curve NBP Front Month 74p, Front Season 93p (vs 75p and 93p) UK Gas NBP spot 82p (from 77p) UK Power DA £77 (from £71) UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £67 (£65) and Front Season at £82 (£81). In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($84) and EUAs are at €73 (€73). Henry Hub is at $2.20 ($2.04) and JKM is at $10.47 ($10.41) with TTF Equiv of $10.05 ($9.70). Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value. We ask that you ‘like’ and use the ‘repost’ function rather than copy from our updates – thank you. More information about Auxilione can be found on our website at www.auxilione.com. #energy #gas #power #electricity #powergeneration #energystorage #lng #energyindustry #powerdistribution #markets #naturalgas #oil #oilgas #renewableenergy #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #renewables #sustainability #solar

DAILY MARKET REPORT - 06/11/2024 A small uptick in prices, although hardly noticeable, in yesterdays session as the market holds firm at the current levels. Impact of the US elections may affect global markets across the world today, although it is starting to become apparent on who the winner is likely to be. Spot prices, particularly in power, continue to rise to levels not seen for a while. In yesterdays day ahead auction for delivery today, in some hours, the UK market topped £300/MWh. Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.49 (from €40.30) and the NBP Front Month contract at 102.69p (from 102.46p). No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 334mcm (325) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.2mcm (41.2) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 95.01% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3. This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole): Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €39 (vs €40 and €39) Curve NBP Front Month 103p, Front Season 96p (vs 102p and 95p) UK Gas NBP spot 102p (from 102p) UK Power Base spot £127 (from £116) UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £86 (£86) and Front Season at £75 (£75). In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($75) and EUAs are at €64 (€65). Henry Hub is at $2.67 ($2.78) and JKM is at $13.54 ($13.48) with TTF Equiv of $12.97 ($12.87). Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value. We ask that you ‘like’ and use the ‘repost’ function rather than copy from our updates – thank you. More information about Auxilione can be found on our website at www.auxilione.com. #energy #gas #power #electricity #powergeneration #energystorage #lng #energyindustry #powerdistribution #markets #naturalgas #oil #oilgas #renewableenergy #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #renewables #sustainability #solar

DAILY MARKET REPORT - 21/03/2024 A bearish session seen yesterday after a few bullish ones towards the end of last week and then a flat one on Tuesday. As said yesterday, the fundamental outlook remains unchanged of late and so the market seems to have found an area of comfort to trade in, reacting upwards when there is potential concerning news (such as ship attacks in the Red Sea) or lowering when there is little news reported and the outlook generally looks favourable for the months ahead. Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €27.74 (from €28.87) and the NBP Front Month contract at 71.38p (from 73.70p). No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 337mcm (332). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.5mcm (40.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 59.39% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4. This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €27, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole): Curve TTF Front Month €27, Front Season €28 (vs €28 and €29) Curve NBP Front Month 71p, Front Season 70p (vs 73p and 72p) UK Gas NBP spot 68p (from 77p) UK Power DA £68 (from £77) UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £65 (£66) and Front Season at £65 (£66). In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($87) and EUAs are at €61 (€61). Henry Hub is at $1.70 ($1.74) and JKM is at $9.57 ($9.90) with TTF Equiv of $8,83 ($9.19). Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value. We ask that you ‘like’ and use the ‘repost’ function rather than copy from our updates – thank you. More information about Auxilione can be found on our website at www.auxilione.com. #energy #gas #power #electricity #powergeneration #energystorage #lng #energyindustry #powerdistribution #markets #naturalgas #oil #oilgas #renewableenergy #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #renewables #sustainability #solar

Today's spotlight is on Washington D.C.'s BEPS! ➡️ 2021 BEPS emission limits were calculated by identifying the local median ENERGY STAR® Score or Normalized Source EUI for each property type using annual 2019 benchmarking data. ➡️ Every six years and starting in 2027, the DOEE will revisit the standards and modify as needed. ➡️ Failure to comply with BEPS requirements could result in a maximum fine of $10 per sq.ft., not to exceed $7,500,000 per building. ⚡Progress towards targets is rewarded with reduced fines!⚡ The full report shares informative BPS data across the nation and how CRE organizations can leverage technological advancements to best prepare for and avoid penalties. Access it here: https://hubs.la/Q02tNzZ-0 #earthday #buildingperformancestandards #bps #DCBEPS

Energy markets are correcting higher as expected - no surprise here. The intra-day chart offers clear upside targets for the corrective upleg. If we top out below those, eventual downside continuation is likely. Want to anticipate such market moves on your own? Send me a message to learn more about the technical analysis academy starting on 30 September. #TTF #energytrading

DAILY MARKET REPORT - 02/12/2024 Welcome along to December. The end of last week ended relatively calm, however over the weekend physical flow nominations dropped from Russia via Ukraine and remain the same today. The comes as the transit deal ends in just a few weeks time. The market has already reacted this morning to the drop in nominations and we are now at very high price levels once again. Despite some colder days this expected this week, the longer term temperature forecasts remain close to seasonal normal for the weeks ahead. Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €47.81 (from €46.68) and the NBP Front Month contract at 119.56p (from 117.55p). No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 325mcm (328) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.8mcm (40.8) and Sudzha at 40.8mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 85.47% (86.65%) full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 12 (12). This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €49, UP €1 to the previous settlement. A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole): Curve TTF Front Month €48, Front Season €46 (vs €48 and €45) Curve NBP Front Month 120p, Front Season 111p (vs 118p and 109p) UK Gas NBP spot 119p (from 118p) UK Power Base spot £91 (from £100) UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £100 (£93) and Front Season at £84 (£83). In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $72 ($73) and EUAs are at €68 (€68). Henry Hub is at $3.36 ($3.20) and JKM is at $14.93 ($15.02) with TTF Equiv of $14.79 ($14.46). Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value. We ask that you ‘like’ and use the ‘repost’ function rather than copy from our updates – thank you. More information about Auxilione can be found on our website at www.auxilione.com. #energy #gas #power #electricity #powergeneration #energystorage #lng #energyindustry #powerdistribution #markets #naturalgas #oil #oilgas #renewableenergy #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #renewables #sustainability #solar

DAILY MARKET REPORT - 04/09/2024 A continuation of bearishness seen in yesterdays session as prices fell across the board after rising for much of late August. Despite lower Norwegian output, gas stocks are now squeezing the last molecules in readiness for winter and LNG deliveries remain stable for the weeks ahead. Tensions in the Middle East and also those on the Ukraine-Russia border seem to have stabilised for now for some of the risk premiums to erode. Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €37.19 (from €38.58) and the NBP Front Month contract at 89.37p (from 92.94p). No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 195mcm (173) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.4mcm (37.8) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 92.52% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3. This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole): Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €40 (vs €37 and €41) Curve NBP Front Month 89p, Front Season 100p (vs 93p and 104p) UK Gas NBP spot 87p (from 93p) UK Power spot £92 (from £94) UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £76 (£79) and Front Season at £88 (£91). In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($78) and EUAs are at €68 (€70). Henry Hub is at $2.20 ($2.13) and JKM is at $13.83 ($14.09) with TTF Equiv of $12.05 ($12.53). Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value. We ask that you ‘like’ and use the ‘repost’ function rather than copy from our updates – thank you. More information about Auxilione can be found on our website at www.auxilione.com. #energy #gas #power #electricity #powergeneration #energystorage #lng #energyindustry #powerdistribution #markets #naturalgas #oil #oilgas #renewableenergy #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #renewables #sustainability #solar

🇪🇺 𝐄𝐔 𝐂𝐚𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐧 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐞𝐭 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐇𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐜 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐮𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐆𝐚𝐬 𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 🇪🇺 🌱 The cost of emitting CO2 in the EU is set to decouple from gas prices, marking a historic shift. According to Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs, this break reflects changing dynamics, including shrinking emissions caps and new buyers in the carbon market. 🔗 Gas prices and carbon allowances have moved together until now, but this is changing. Europe’s response to energy supply issues has boosted renewables and gas investment, leading to predictions of a 50% increase in global LNG supplies and a significant drop in gas prices over the next five years. 📈 This shift could drive carbon allowance prices up to €130 a tonne by 2028, with significant implications for inflation and energy costs.As the EU works towards its net-zero emissions goal by 2050, the carbon market is tightening. BloombergNEF forecasts EU carbon prices to nearly €150 by 2030. With industries buying allowances in anticipation of higher prices, the market is set for a major transformation. 🌟 💼 Read more: https://lnkd.in/dE9HPrmZ #ClimateChange #Sustainability #EUCarbonMarket #RenewableEnergy #NetZero #CleanEnergy

DAILY MARKET REPORT - 11/06/2024 A bullish start to the week as markets rose across the board in yesterdays session. Problems continue on the Norwegian assets with further delays to full service from annual maintenance following on from last weeks separate issues. The market retains a nervous undertone and will react to any negative news it seems. Looking into next week, temperatures are expected to rise again above seasonal normal which may help to settle some of the nerves following the dip this week. Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.26 (from €33.11) and the NBP Front Month contract at 81.32p (from 78.41p). Visund remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 328mcm (325) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 43.4mcm (41.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (41.9). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 71.75% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 0. This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole): Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €39 (vs €34 and €37) Curve NBP Front Month 81p, Front Season 99p (vs 78p and 97p) UK Gas NBP spot 82p (from 79p) UK Power DA £72 (from £73) UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £74 (£72) and Front Season at £89 (£87). In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($80) and EUAs are at €71 (€71). Henry Hub is at $2.91 ($2.92) and JKM is at $11.97 ($11.97) with TTF Equiv of $10.80 ($10.44). Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value. We ask that you ‘like’ and use the ‘repost’ function rather than copy from our updates – thank you. More information about Auxilione can be found on our website at www.auxilione.com. #energy #gas #power #electricity #powergeneration #energystorage #lng #energyindustry #powerdistribution #markets #naturalgas #oil #oilgas #renewableenergy #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #renewables #sustainability #solar

DAILY MARKET REPORT - 25/03/2024 A bullish session to end the week as Ukrainian energy infrastructure was attacked, impacting gas storage facilities and resulting in electricity to be imported. Terrorist attacks in Moscow have also escalated further tension in the area and markets are likely to be sensitive in the near term. In the UK, weekend electricity prices were considerably low (negative for much of the day on Saturday) with an average price of £11/MWh for Saturday thanks to high wind generation, accounting for two-thirds of the stack. Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €27.78 (from €26.40) and the NBP Front Month contract at 71.74p (from 68.37p). No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 346mcm (340). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.4mcm (39.7) and Sudzha at 42.1mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 59.17% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4. This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €28, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole): Curve TTF Front Month €28, Front Season €28 (vs €28 and €27) Curve NBP Front Month 72p, Front Season 70p (vs 68p and 67p) UK Gas NBP spot 73p (from 70p) UK Power DA £72 (from £52) UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £63 (£61) and Front Season at £64 (£62). In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($86) and EUAs are at €62 (€59). Henry Hub is at $1.66 ($1.68) and JKM is at $9.45 ($9.29) with TTF Equiv of $8.80 ($8.40). Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value. We ask that you ‘like’ and use the ‘repost’ function rather than copy from our updates – thank you. More information about Auxilione can be found on our website at www.auxilione.com. #energy #gas #power #electricity #powergeneration #energystorage #lng #energyindustry #powerdistribution #markets #naturalgas #oil #oilgas #renewableenergy #oilandgas #oilandgasindustry #renewables #sustainability #solar