Andrew Siffert, CCRMP’s Post

BMS Tropical Update 09/24/2024  In the past 24 hours, Hurricane John rapidly intensified into a Category 3 storm before landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, an area still recovering from last year’s Hurricane Otis. The storm has since shifted northwest, bringing extreme winds and torrential rain, threatening flash floods and mudslides. Meanwhile, Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (PTC9) remains disorganized but is forecasted to develop into Hurricane Helene once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. PTC9 could undergo rapid intensification with favorable conditions such as low wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures, and Hurricane John shows this is very much possible with any tropical system under the right conditions. PTC9 is expected to make landfall along the northeastern Gulf Coast in the Big Bend Region of Florida, marking the fourth U.S. continental landfall of the 2024 season. This BMS Tropical Update highlights the volatility in forecasting models, which have shifted dramatically in intensity forecast over the past 24 hours due to improved data from aircraft reconnaissance and changing environmental factors. It also explains how Hurricane John’s unexpected rapid intensification has influenced PTC9’s development by impacting wind shear patterns. While landfall intensity predictions for PTC9 range from Category 2 to Category 4, there is considerable uncertainty, with its final strength and impacts depending on its development over the next day. The BMS Tropical Update advises caution to any catastrophe model guidance issued and the challenges of understanding inland impacts from the storm’s fast movement and effects that could extend far beyond the initial landfall area. Below is the NHC Official forecast track and intensity. What is more important here is to notice the consistency in the NHC's forecasts. This is likely to occur as there will continue to be adjustments up and down intensity from forecast models. The point of a human forecast like the one they have at the NHC is to take in all the information so there isn't flip-flopping.  BMS iVision clients should note that footprints will be posted onces PTC9 is upgraded to a tropical storm and given a name (Helene). Based on the current forecast, we anticipate the first footprints will be available later today. Click this link for much more detail on #Helene https://lnkd.in/gzAZjaNd #TropicalUpdate #HurricaneSeason #Insurance #Reinsurance

Excellent article from Scientific American. As we brace for a potentially active hurricane season, it’s clear that the Saffir-Simpson scale doesn’t tell the full story. By focusing solely on wind speed, the scale potentially underestimates risks from rain and storm surge, which are significant factors in property damage and insurance claims. It’s time for our industry to look beyond this limited ranking for a more complete risk evaluation. #onecrawford #crawfordrestores  https://bit.ly/3Rs0PlQ

Hurricane season starts on June 1, 2024. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above average, based on the Colorado State University. Here at Action Public Adjusters, we would like to offer you a FREE review and explanation of your policy and coverages. It is very important that you as property owner either for residential or commercial property understand your policy as well. You can email us your policy for free a review to: [email protected] Being prepared is very important, other things that we suggest are to take pictures of the property, have a hurricane preparedness list, stay in contact with local authorities for information and updates. Being that said as you know Action Public Adjusters represents YOU the insured, NOT the insurance company. Call us first BEFORE you file a claim at :786-5402823. #propertydamage#yourprivateadjuster#floridapublicadjuster#miamipublicadjusters#bestsettelment#bestcostumerservice

Tropical Update 9/8/2024 Things have been anomalously quiet in the Atlantic for weeks since Ernesto became a post-tropical cyclone on August 20th. In fact, the last time the Atlantic basin was this quiet climatologically during the most active three-week period of the hurricane season (8/20- 9/9) was 1968, so 56 years!  However, if you’re a daily watcher of the NHC extended outlook on their home page, you will notice that this quiet period could be changing. Now, the NHC has updated the chances of a tropical system developing in the Bay of Campeche and lifting northward towards the Gulf Coast at 80% in the next two days and 90% in the next seven days. This means we might have a new named storm, Francine, on the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season, September 10th. This system in the Bay of Campeche bears watching, as the curved coastline can help consolidate disturbances; we saw this happen with Beryl already this year as it intensified northward. We know the water temperatures are plenty warm as well.  The ECMWF ensembles are developing more aggressively, and the ensemble members that stay offshore and over warmer water longer have a stronger storm developing. This is a very similar situation to Beryl earlier this season.  A handful of the 51 members now have a weak Category 1 hurricane tracking to Louisiana by Thursday this week (Less than 5% chance at hurricane).  Most other models keep the system below hurricane strength (45% chance of tropical storm). Regardless, at this time, if the forecast holds, this will be mainly a big rainmaker for the southern U.S. during the latter half of the coming week and a manageable event for the insurance industry.  The heaviest rain will fall across parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle on the east side of the circulation. Besides the Gulf of Mexico areas, two other regions of the Central Atlantic could see development by this weekend. If they develop and strengthen, both should stay east of Bermuda, but let's see how the forecast unfolds, as this is a plus-day way. #TropicalUpdate #HurricaneSeason #Insurance #Reinsurance BMS Group

Hurricanes are typically the biggest and most costly disasters that the US faces each year. With this year's hurricane season predicted to be one of the worst on record, we caught up with FloodFlash lead structurer and catastrophe analyst Henry Bellwood to discuss all things hurricanes. ❓ What is a hurricane ❓ Hurricanes are large tropical cyclones specific to the Atlantic basin. Their fundamental driving power is energy from the ocean and the moisture close to the water's surface. As the storms move west across the tropics, they suck heat and water to power ferocious events. ❓ When is hurricane season ❓ What we label as hurricane season has changed over time. Modern hurricane season typically starts at the beginning of June, and ends at the close of November. ❓ Why is this hurricane season set out to be one of the worst ❓ This is largely driven by two factors - the all-time record highs we are seeing in terms of sea temperatures, and the La Nina weather pattern. Sea surface temperature is considered the key driver in Hurricane formation. Warmer seas contain more energy. And more energy produces more energetic storms. La Niña not only increases the number of hurricanes that develop, it also allows stronger hurricanes to form. Most experts agree that strong El Niño patterns lead to greater impacts from La Niña. This is the case for 2024 and a reason for any risk manager to be particularly wary ahead of June 1st. ❓ How can FloodFlash support clients at risk ❓ Wind parametric has been widely available for some time, however its only since FloodFlash launched in 2023 that US businesses and public entities can access a fully customisable flood parametric option which guards against the rain and surge damage caused by hurricanes. Whether your client is looking to top to their existing coverage, fill a deductible, or cover their full flood exposure, we can support you. Got a client in mind? Email [email protected]. --- To find out more about the 2024 hurricane season, including the impact of climate change, storm surges, and where in the US is most at risk, take a look at the full article in the comments. #hurricaneseason #parametric #floodinsurance

Disasters Total $25 Billion So Far This Year According to NOAA, there have been 11 disasters, each of which cost over $1 billion in losses so far this year. Most were thunderstorms, hail, or tornadoes. The agency reports, “These disasters consisted of nine severe storm events and two winter storms. The total cost of these events exceeds $25 billion, and they have resulted in at least 84 fatalities.” Climatecisis247 believes that this is not only expected but will worsen this year. Hurricane season could be the worst on record because of a warming Atlantic Ocean, and wildfire season is about to begin. Most of the damage was related to high temperatures and heavy rain. NOAA scientists wrote, “The average May temperature across the contiguous U.S. was 62.3 degrees F (2.1 degrees above the 20th-century average), ranking as the 13th-warmest May in NOAA’s 130-year climate record.” Hurricanes Hurricane season should drive these much higher. Earlier this year, experts at Accuweather reported: “The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be much worse than last year with 20 to 25 named storms predicted, and experts warn now is the time to prepare before the onslaught of storms and hurricanes begins.” Florida will be hit by a huge tropical rainstorm this week. Wildfires Finally, The Guardian recently reported: This week’s broiling heatwave in the US south-west is just the start of what experts warn will be a brutally hot summer, setting the stage for an active wildfire season – even in places that don’t burn often. What is $25 billon will turn into a much larger figure. The year is not even half over. #disasters #wildfire #hurricanes #florida #heatwave #noaa #tornadoes

Good Wednesday morning! In terms of closures for Hurricane Francine, ARA is only airport currently closed due to the hurricane. With wind gusts in excess of 60 knots possible later on this afternoon into tonight I would not be surprised to see closures at BTR/MSY/NEW. Gulf of Mexico routes will also likely be impacted with tops < FL 550 so plan accordingly. Two-week tropical outlook - as we enter later September look for the Eastern Pacific to get very active. Tropical outlook - West Pacific / Indian Ocean basin - TD 14W, Bebinca, located 170 miles WNW of Navsta, Guam continues to move to the NNW at 09 knots. This system will have to be watched very carefully, especially if you are heading to the Shanghai area early next week with a possible landfall in the vicinity of ZSSS/ZSPD on Monday. Eastern Pacific- Atlantic - large area of disorganized thunderstorms remain offshore central Mexico. Latest computer models indicate a moderate probability that a weak tropical storm may form over the next few days and move towards Cabo San Lucas. Current modeling would suggest this system will remain below hurricane status. Hurricane Francine, 195 miles SW of Morgan City LA with landfall likely later on this afternoon over South Central LA. US Severe weather outlook - main concern today will be central Gulf of Mexico coast where a slight risk to severe thunderstorms exists due to landfalling Francine. This region will move East tomorrow. By Friday into the weekend, very low chances for severe weather exist. Europe outlook - on Thursday, by midday, the core of the cold upper level trof will reside from Norway to the Nice, France area. By Friday, a cold core upper level and deep surface low will be present over Northern Italy resulting in the possibility of good snow fall rates in the higher elevations of the Alps from Thursday morning into Saturday morning. Very heavy rain is also possible to the East of the upper level low as it will be slow to evacuate the area. Images courtesy of wxcharts.com, pivotalweather.com, tropicaltidbits.com, UK met office, Weather prediction center, aviation weather center,  weathernerds.org, Tomer tropical weather and the joint typhoon warning center.

𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗔𝘁𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗛𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻𝗲 𝗦𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻 – 𝗮 𝗦𝘂𝗺𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘆 The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season recorded 18 named storms, including 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). While this was below the initial forecast of around 23 storms, the season was still above the long-term average. Of the US landfalls, Hurricane Milton, despite its intensity, did not cause widespread damage. In contrast, Hurricane Helene, although weaker, caused significant flooding in Georgia and the Carolinas, resulting in significant infrastructure damage and economic losses. Warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a weakening El Niño pattern contributed to above-average storm activity this season. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index – a measure of the total energy released by storms – was higher than historical averages. Other regions of the world were also affected by severe weather events. Europe experienced intense flooding in parts of France and Germany, and Asia was hit by several typhoons. Despite the increase in natural catastrophes worldwide, there were no major wind-related insured losses in the 2024 season, thanks in part to improved risk mitigation strategies and infrastructure resilience. As a result, the Cat Bond market remained relatively stable. Looking ahead to 2025, demand for Cat Bonds is expected to remain increased. However, a combination of increased capital inflows and the relatively low losses from the 2024 season may slightly compress market spreads, which however we expect to remain elevated relative to historical averages. Meanwhile, global (re)insurance losses from natural perils exceeded USD 100 billion. This figure was largely driven by secondary perils, such as severe convective storms and floods, which are likely to continue to constrain available capital in the industry and encourage disciplined underwriting practices. Twelve Capital will publish a more detailed review of the hurricane season once it has officially ended. #HurricaneSeason #ILS #CatBonds

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is intensifying with unprecedented ferocity. With a projected 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, far exceeding the 1991-2020 averages of 14.4, 7.2, and 3.2, respectively, the risk to businesses and communities along the U.S. coastline is at an all-time high. The season's hyperactivity is driven by a confluence of factors. Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, conducive atmospheric conditions, and the influence of a La Niña pattern have created an environment ripe for storm development and intensification. This perfect storm of conditions has led to an early and aggressive hurricane season. Of the 363-billion-dollar weather disasters since 1980 (as of August 2023), tropical cyclones or hurricanes have inflicted the most significant financial damage, totaling over $1.3 trillion. This staggering figure underscores the immense economic risk posed by these storms. Coastal businesses, from tourism to maritime industries, face the brunt of these impacts, with property damage, revenue loss, and supply chain disruptions being the most immediate challenges. To navigate this heightened risk, businesses must prioritize hurricane preparedness. EarlyAlert offers a comprehensive suite of solutions designed to protect your operations and minimize the impact of these storms. Our services include: - Real-time monitoring and early warning systems to provide advanced notice of potential threats. - In-depth risk assessments to identify vulnerabilities and develop tailored mitigation strategies. - Crisis communication tools to ensure effective information sharing and coordination during emergencies. - Business continuity planning to help businesses recover quickly from disruptions. By investing in preparedness, businesses can significantly reduce their exposure to hurricane risks and build resilience for the future. #2024atlantichurrincaneseason #hurricane2024 #USweather #hurricanepreparedness #hurricane

The forecast track for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (PTC 9; Helene if named) has shifted west since the last update. However, impacts in South Carolina are still expected from PTC 9. PTC 9 is expected to be a large system, and impacts will reach well outside NHC’s cone of uncertainty. Heavy rainfall, flash flooding, gusty winds, and tornadoes are all possible across the state beginning Thursday evening and continuing into Friday. Some storm surge is also possible depending on the eventual track of PTC 9.   ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS... At 5pm EDT, the disturbance was located 1,050 miles south-southwest of the South Carolina coast with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph. A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday, followed by a faster northward motion on Wednesday and Thursday as the system moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday night, with additional intensification into a major hurricane before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of the Florida Panhandle and Florida west coast Tuesday morning. Rainfall: Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches, bringing a risk of flooding, some of which could be considerable. Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities: Beaufort, SC - 27% Charleston, SC - 19% Augusta, GA -17% Columbia, SC - 11%