𝐈𝐒 𝐀𝐈 𝐀 𝐏𝐀𝐒𝐒𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐅𝐀𝐍𝐂𝐘?
Are AI companies really plateauing, that is, "atrophying" or our perceived notions of progress or more accurately, lack of, true?
The average adoption rate of AI globally stands at 26%-35% (regional variance), India is the only country on the planet whose average adoption rate stands at 30%-40%.
That means that the greater majority of the world either has never heard of AI or has no idea what it does.
𝐈𝐬 𝐀𝐈 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐮𝐢𝐧𝐠?
What the papers consider as "plateauing", just means that the rate at which features and tools are launched has diminished and is now becoming more standardised.
Even o1-Preview is relevant as of September 2021; I don't know if you noticed, but that's more than 3 years ago.
And if that is the level of reasoning we see, that also means the Computer Use by Claude isn't really new, it was just launched recently.
𝐀𝐫𝐞 𝐖𝐞 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐭 𝐨𝐫 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐃𝐨𝐧'𝐭 𝐊𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐁𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫?
Even the concept behind it isn't new: Remotely controlling computers has been the staple of ITES companies since the 1960s, when the original developments started as early as the late 19th century by the likes of Nikola Tesla.
The current iteration though, is the innovation.
And even had this innovation been considered "old", for the early adopters it isn't.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐝𝐨𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐁𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐋𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐀𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐬
Businesses, for the most part, are not even within the early adopters. Many businesses find resistance either from the executives, who can't yet pinpoint the ROI of using AI, or the employees who are afraid of losing their jobs if their companies do decide to adopt AI tomorrow.
It would actually be nice to see launches which are not every 6 weeks, as that creates major confusion for companies which are looking to adopt AI tech for their business and have to rethink their strategy every quarter.
#ai #adoption #claude
Is AI progress starting to 'slow down'? Have we 'tapped out' all the data?
Short Answer: lol, no 😂
Long Answer: AI's momentum is parallelized now, meaning there are several viable pathways to build on (both on the research and scaling side). Some models underperform expectations, and some models aren't released due to competitive concerns or safety and alignment concerns. You cannot judge progress based on consumer-facing product releases. The best way to track the frontier is through research developments. As Ilya said, "Scaling the right thing matters more now than ever," hence the focus on parallelization. Both OpenAI and Anthropic have said they have a clear line of sight on where to build for the next 18-24 months. Beyond that, it is hard to plan because the frontier is actually moving so quickly (except for things like large infrastructure projects which can have long lead times).
Why are people saying this then?
These comments are usually taken out of context. They often reflect one small part of the picture and can be misleading. A quick litmus test is to ask if they know what Arxiv is (https://lnkd.in/gZWd7gwY) or what the most recent research paper they read was. If they can't answer, it's unlikely they are tracking the broader AI landscape.
"Not much has happened since ChatGPT" — what do you say to this?
Some of the biggest developments have occurred in the last two months and came sooner than many in the field expected. Here are a few examples:
- Test time training/compute: https://lnkd.in/gSeFqG4b
- Real-time voice API: https://lnkd.in/gK8bKeEK
- Computer Use: https://lnkd.in/gn_8f222
Each of these has the potential to transform industries. The thing that stumps most people in this industry is how little coverage these developments have gotten.
So when someone says AI progress is "losing steam," ask them what research papers they read to form this opinion... 🙃
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Education Innovation Leader | K-100 Learning Strategist | EdTech Investor & Entrepreneur
8moYusuf Ahmad