Anders Ahnlid’s Post

Based on a recent poll by the CITP, today’s blog, A UK Trade Strategy: What the ‘experts’ think, highlights key priorities for consideration in the UK Government’s forthcoming trade strategy. Improving EU trade relations ranked highest. Growth, competitiveness, and international partnerships also emerged as significant areas of importance, alongside priorities like climate, inclusiveness, and economic security. Strikingly, free trade agreements and the role of the WTO ranked lower. While these findings are not representative, they offer valuable insights and a clear roadmap for policymakers—though identifying priorities is one thing, implementing them effectively will be the challenge. https://lnkd.in/eE5FpbgU

A good opportunity here

One aspect of EU policy - and the discussion around it - that I find frustrating is how trade seem to completely have fallen off the agenda. The talk now is about raising Europe's competitiveness but, for many, boosting Europe's trade is not part of that agenda. Mario Draghi, for instance, has a flippant view of trade in his report and mostly deals with it as a source of problem. The reality is that better EU trade performance will lead to better welfare in Europe. About 90 percent of all global economic growth happens outside the EU. The world keeps producing more new ideas, technologies, patents, graduates, managers and a rapidly shrinking part of all growth in these categories are from Europe. Making sure that people, companies, government, entrepreneurs, students, researchers in Europe have the best possible access to all this growth is absolutely central for our long-term prosperity generation.

Ursula von der Leyen's European Commission 2.0 must prioritise trade policy to boost EU competitiveness. Global growth and emerging technologies outside the EU highlight the need for robust trade policies to foster cross-border exchange. Last May, together with Europe Unlocked, we published the Policy Brief "Trading Up: An EU Trade Policy for Better Market Access and Resilient Sourcing" in which we proposed 7 actionable steps to enhance market access and economic resilience during this mandate: 1️⃣ Modernise FTAs and conclude deals with Mercosur, Australia, and ASEAN countries. 2️⃣ Negotiate "Mini deals". 3️⃣ Expand the adequacy framework for more regulations. 4️⃣ Join the CPTPP. 5️⃣ Deepen trade talks with the US and India. 6️⃣ Enhance neighbourhood policies. 7️⃣ Create a Coalition for Trade Resilience. Read the full paper by Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, Philipp Lamprecht, Oscar du Roy, Elena S. and Renata Zilli ➡ https://lnkd.in/dNfdMCnW ✍ "Lagging trade policy has contributed to Europe’s increasing detachment from the global economy. Europe’s reduced engagement with the rest of the world can be explained by two economic hurdles: market access and economic resilience. These two problems stifle trade’s potential to boost Europe’s competitiveness, impacting job growth and innovation, and lower its economic dependencies. Over the next five years, the European Commission must urgently steer Europe’s trade policy ship towards greater market access and economic resilience. Failure to act will limit the EU’s economic potential and leave it vulnerable to global disruptions."

"While protectionist trends dominate headlines, international trade remains essential for the EU’s economic well-being. Open markets and diversified suppliers are crucial for economic growth and economic resilience." Oscar Guinea via Encompass on the current state of international trade and how the upcoming EU legislative mandate should approach trade policy. In the article, he references our new paper "Trading Up: An EU Trade Policy for Better Market Access and Resilient Sourcing" ➡ https://lnkd.in/dNfdMCnW Read his full opinion ➡ https://buff.ly/3K7gPFE

Today we hosted the Virtual Conference "EU-US trade relations – What does the future hold?".  Thank you to all who joined us, and to our panellists. Here are the key takeaways from our speakers: 🔸Matthias Jørgensen from DG TRADE, European Commission "We believe we should build on the experiences and achievements of the Trade and Technology Council to meet the new challenges that we have. We need to tailor it, we need to change it, we need to update it but we think we have something strong there, so we look forward to continuing to strengthen our trade relationship with the USA." 🔸Bernd Lange MEP from INTA Committee, European Parliament "They (the United States) are focusing more on domestic policy on, I call it 'homeland economy', and this has consequences for the relationship with the European Union." 🔸Tiffany Smith from National Foreign Trade Council "With China, tariffs and industrial policy likely to drive the US trade agenda in 2025 regardless of which party wins, businesses and governments on both sides of the Atlantic will need to look for ways to deepen cooperation, maximize commercial opportunities, confront disputes, and work together to address challenges globally." 🔸Renata Zilli from European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE) "To observe the implications of the future of US trade with Europe and the rest of the world, we should think in 3 different layers: Macroeconomics, Policy and Politics." 🔸Bertram Kawlath from VDMA "It is clear that America does not want the role of guarantor of the WTO and the rules-based trading systems anymore, and we Europeans must learn to live with that. We have learned over the years that we cannot take the EU-US relationship for granted and we must do everything we can do to support and deepen it." 👉 Watch the recording here: https://eurac.tv/9XnG

Publication of third Vision for Trade Annual Report I’m happy to announce the publication of our latest Vision for Trade Annual Report, which summarises the progress the Scottish Government has made in implementing our international Trade Strategy – the Vision for Trade – since our last annual report was published. This year’s report showcases our achievements across four outcomes: Actions we took to improve the international trading environment for businesses in Scotland, including stepping up our direct engagement with the business community, supporting the resolution of individual market access barriers and using standards and regulation to support businesses. Putting the Wellbeing Economy into practice by assessing the impact of UK Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on key sectors of the Scottish economy, and using our research to inform how we can begin to address the gender export gap in Scotland. Using our work on trade to help meet climate ambitions and support human rights, taking action to improve coherence with our policy aims in these areas. Advocating for Scottish priorities within UK Government trade policy, including promoting Scotland’s interests in UK trade negotiations, e.g with the Gulf Cooperation Council, India, Switzerland and Türkiye and in the UK’s US State MoU programme. The Report also sets out key priorities for the coming year and a number of areas where we would welcome close collaboration with the new UK Government. Please publicise our Annual Report to your stakeholders and networks, and don’t hesitate to contact me if you would like to find out more about our work in trade policy. 

Is EU trade policy becoming protectionist? In an environment where it is increasingly difficult to come to free trade agreements, the WTO is not working properly and even EU Member States challenge some autonomous trade decisions, the EU is resorting increasingly to trade defense measures. But one should not mistake protectionism and assertiveness. My latest for EUobserver. Real Instituto Elcano CEPS (Centre for European Policy Studies) https://lnkd.in/dJJegGcn

In a new piece, I argue that the Biden administration should work through its internal disagreements on digital trade policy, come up with a balanced text they can live with (drop "necessity"? delay enforcement provisions?), and engage on digital trade negotiations. https://lnkd.in/ewxsv5pV

📆 NEW EVENT SUMMARY | The “geoeconomic turn” in global trade – i.e., states' increasing attempts to use economic instruments towards foreign policy objectives – has changed the context in which the EU positions itself as a #trade actor. What does this situation mean for global trade governance, particularly with developing countries? ENSURED researcher & co-coordinator Clara Weinhardt (Maastricht University) and Ferdi De Ville (Ghent University) have published a new article that analyses the implications of new EU autonomous trade and investment instruments for developing countries – and how Brussels has taken these consequences into account when designing them. At a recent Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung event in Geneva, Clara discussed the findings of their article. Make sure to read the event summary on the ENSURED website ➡️ https://lnkd.in/diAkhiwi 📖 Want to dig into the details? Read the full article: https://lnkd.in/dPHT-wN5