Ami Daniel’s Post

Led by the #US, Western governments have tightened #sanctions on #Russia, #Iran and #Venezuela amid escalating geopolitical conflicts, often targeting the countries' oil #exports to choke off their main revenue streams. In response, #OPEC+ producers are amassing tanker capacity to bypass the trade restrictions and continue their seaborne oil shipments, often destined for #China, the world's largest #oil importer that has publicly opposed Western sanctions. Check out this great factbox from our team and follow us at S&P Global Commodity Insights for more intelligence.

#venezuela #oil The United States appears to be inclined to let international oil companies with existing operations in Venezuela continue pumping crude in the country holding the world's largest crude oil reserves. Despite the recent return of the U.S. sanctions on Venezuela's crude production and exports, the White House seems unwilling to rattle the oil market and prices-and by extension, U.S. gasoline prices-too much ahead of the November U.S. presidential election. The six-month sanctions relief followed commitments by Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro to ensure fair elections this year. As a result, the top international oil trading houses returned to the business of trading with oil from Venezuela, and so did some oilfield services providers to help international majors extract crude from their joint-venture operations with Venezuelan state oil firm PDVSA. Source: OilPrice.com 👇 https://lnkd.in/dtJgWdMF #globalenegy

Interesting study by CSIS, reported by Axios, on the ineffectiveness of Western sanctions on Russian oil exports. The market has adjusted; Russia is still collecting substantial revenue from oil sales, even at higher transaction cost, and Russian work-arounds to dodgier ships, etc. enhance risks of greater environmental pollution. Perhaps a re-think of the effectiveness of sanctions is in order--SOON. #sanctions #Russiansanctions #oilmarkets #energy https://lnkd.in/ehTyXzE5

Oil from the twilight. What is the Russian shadow fleet? Most of the oil volumes of sanctioned countries are transported by tankers working with them on an opportunistic basis from time to time. So, in fact, the shadow fleet is simply an inseparable part of the global tanker fleet. At the end of 2022, the West set a price ceiling for Russian oil exports to limit Russia's revenue from such operations. This regime was supposed to function through control over the maritime transportation of oil and related services: Russian suppliers were given the right to charter or insure a tanker only when selling oil on terms corresponding to the price ceiling regime. But Russian oil producers and oil traders decided to disobey the rules and began to contract tankers and related services outside the West. This is how the shadow fleet was formed. At the same time, what it is is still a mystery to many. Russian oil is now transported and how they differ from the rest of the world's tanker fleet. There is no clear definition of the term "shadow fleet" - it usually means vessels whose owners and operators deliberately violate Western sanctions. And since the end of 2022, such a fleet has been actively created by Russia. At the same time, it makes little sense to understand shades of gray, isolating the shadow and white part of the fleet that provides Russian oil exports. After all, all these ways of selling help Russia to resist sanctions by providing it with oil revenues.

Russia supplies 80% of exported oil, 35% of oil products to Asia-Pacific region in 2023 Russia has been implementing the plan on development of export infrastructure for Russian oil through 2026 on infrastructure expansion for boosting exports by sea since 2022, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted MOSCOW/ Countries in the Asia-Pacific region were one of the main directions for supplies of Russian hydrocarbons in 2023, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak wrote in the article for the Energy Policy magazine, adding that 80% of Russian exports of oil and 35% of exports of petroleum products were delivered to the region in total last year. "We managed to fully redirect all volumes of export of oil and petroleum products to new markets after the introduction of sanctions. Countries of the Asia-Pacific region were the main purchasers of Russian oil last year. Overall, more than 80% of Russian oil and over 35% of petroleum products were supplied to countries of the Asia-Pacific region in 2023," he wrote. Russia has been implementing the plan on development of export infrastructure for Russian oil through 2026 on infrastructure expansion for boosting exports by sea since 2022, Novak noted. The economies of countries of the Asia-Pacific region are among the fastest-growing in the world, with this trend expected by analysts to persist in coming decades, he added. "Illegal sanctions of a number of western countries, which embargoed supplies of commodities from Russia and imposed a cap on prices for Russian oil in 2022, have become an incentive for more active redirection of exports," the official concluded. #business #finance #financialservices

🇮🇷🇺🇸Balancing Act: Biden Administration's Dilemma on Iranian Oil and Electoral Concerns The Biden administration finds itself in a quandary regarding the regulation of Iranian oil amidst both geopolitical tensions and domestic political considerations. Washington is inclined towards imposing stricter controls on oil sales to Iran as a means to undermine support for militant groups in the Middle East. However, there is a fear that excessive pressure could result in a surge in oil prices, adversely impacting the sluggish global economy and potentially affecting Biden's forthcoming electoral competition against Trump. A faction of US lawmakers has urged Biden to adopt stringent measures, advocating for the enforcement of existing sanctions on ships, ports, and refineries involved in transloading Iranian oil. Nevertheless, such measures carry the risk of price escalation and consumer detriment, posing a political challenge for the Biden administration. The White House is exploring limited options, which may include targeting ships transporting Iranian oil or imposing penalties on countries facilitating its purchase or shipment. Last year, Iranian crude and condensate exports averaged approximately 1.4 million barrels per day, according to TankerTrackers.com Inc. Any attempt by Washington to tighten sanctions will likely encounter difficulties in dismantling the intricate network of payments, intermediaries, and shippers that has evolved in recent years. #Iran #USA #oil

https://lnkd.in/d5kJejsM It’s not only that oil is being smuggled from Iran to Pakistan by oil tankers but about 200,000 Barrels of oil is also being smuggled every day from Iraqi Kurdistan to Iran and Turkey. The price of this oil about $35/Barrel, less than half the price of oil in the international market. Would it not be much better if US sanctions on Iran were lifted and the oil and gas transported by pipelines to Pakistan and Turkey? This would help both these US allies obtain cheap energy and would probably not make any difference to Iranian oil sales. The sanctions are clearly not working!

August Issue of Russian Oil Tracker by KSE Institute: Russian Oil Revenues Increase, More Sanctions on Shadow Fleet Needed In July 2024, export revenues increased to $17.1B due to higher oil prices. Despite slightly lower exports, Russia actively uses its shadow fleet to exceed the oil price cap. Key findings: - Weak price cap enforcement has allowed Russia to sell crude at ~$75/barrel, $15 above the $60 EU&G7 price cap, leading to significant extra profits. - Russian seaborne oil exports fell 3% in July due to a 9.5% drop in crude shipments, but oil product exports rose 6.6% as refineries restarted after Ukrainian attacks.  - In July, 198 shadow fleet tankers left ports, with 82% over 15 years old. Only 33% of shipments had IG P&I insurance, while 90% of crude was transported by shadow tankers. - The US, EU & UK sanctioned 64 Russian shadow fleet vessels. However, 9 of them returned to service after being idle, testing the sanctions' effectiveness, while the rest were removed from service. - India was the top importer of Russian crude in July at 1,342 kb/d, while Turkey led in oil products, with imports rising 30.8% to 516 kb/d, the highest since March 2024. Full Russian Oil Tracker for August 2024 by KSE Institute is available here: https://bit.ly/4cSTZxE