Aidan Uttley’s Post

Check out the latest #southernagtoday article, contributed by our own Dr. Hunter Biram and Dr. Ryan Loy!

Farmers Hold Tight to Corn and Soybeans as Market Woes Deepen As harvest approaches, U.S. farmers face the challenge of selling last year’s corn and soybeans amid persistently low commodity prices. A recent AgWeb survey reveals that many farmers still have large stockpiles of old crops, with on-farm corn stocks up 36.5% compared to the previous season—reaching the highest levels since 1988. Arkansas farmer Becton Bell, expecting one of his best crops, admits that marketing it will be tough. He compares the current market conditions to "catching a falling knife," with few good opportunities to sell. The survey highlights that 83% of farmers have up to 25% of their old corn still in storage, and 89% report similar levels for soybeans. Despite needing space for the new harvest, more than half of the farmers surveyed plan to hold onto their old crops, hoping for a rebound in prices. Market analysts suggest that the sharp drop in corn and soybean prices has forced many farmers to sell under unfavorable conditions, while others delay sales in hopes of better returns. However, holding onto crops may backfire, especially as liquidity becomes a critical concern after harvest. Analysts warn that continuing to hold non-performing assets might lead to even worse financial outcomes. The decision to wait for a price rally, driven by both emotional and economic factors, leaves many farmers in a precarious situation. With no clear catalyst for a price surge on the horizon, the coming months will test their resilience as they navigate the financial and logistical challenges of the 2024 harvest season. Source: Poll Results: More Than 50% of Farmers Don't Plan to Sell Their Old Crop Corn Before Harvest Morgan https://lnkd.in/eAb8ntJS

Strategie Grains cuts rapeseed crop forecast to 10% below 2023 3Jun2024700 GMT PARIS, June 3 (Reuters) -Consultancy Strategie Grains cut its forecast for this year's rapeseed output in the European Union by 180,000 metric tons to 17.94 million tons, now 10% below last year's harvest, due to wet weather in France and frosts in central Europe. Heavy rains in the European Union's largest rapeseed grower France since the autumn have delayed sowings, flooded fields and is hurting grain quality. In contrast, late frosts recorded in April were not expected to have as much of a negative impact in France as in central EU countries such as the Czech Republic and Slovakia, the consultancy said in a report. "The crops (in France) are mainly penalised by the frequency of rainfall and the waterlogging of fields," it said, adding that some fields will need to be replanted. In the second-largest rapeseed producer Germany, conditions were satisfactory for flowering with average temperatures close to seasonal norms. Strategie Grains noted that the rapeseed balance would be tight next season due to the anticipated fall in output and low carry-in stocks, which would only be partly offset by higher imports from third countries, mainly from Ukraine and Australia. Strategie Grains slightly lowered its projection for the EU sunflower harvest in 2024 to 10.72 million tons, down from 10.75 million previously, but still 10% above 2023. Its soybean output forecast was slightly cut to 3.06 million tons, from 3.11 million earlier, up about 5% from last year's 2.9 million tons.

Overview by AgriBrasilis 2024/25 soybean harvest to reach 52 million tonnes, corn 47 million tonnes and wheat 18.6 million tonnes in Argentina. (Bolsa de Cereales) Eduardo Bastos is the new director of the Institute for the Study of Agribusiness, created by the Brazilian Agribusiness Association. (Associação Brasileira do Agronegócio (ABAG)) At the end of the 2023/24 season, Brazilian orange juice stocks in the world increased 37.7% when compared to the previous cycle, despite a drop in production, which reached 898.6 thousand tonnes (-5%). The 2024/25 season is estimated to reach 215.78 million boxes of 40.8 kg, a drop of 29.8% when compared to the previous season. (CitrusBR) Coffee production is expected to reach 13 million 60 kg bags in Colombia, an increase of 15% when compared to the previous season. (National Federation of Colombian Coffee Growers) Cattle prices have increased more than 100% since 2019 in Colombia. According to Bbva Research, one factor slowing down the sector has been the strong increase in the relative price of beef in relation to other substitute products, also above the general price basket and people’s income. The Colombian cattle herd is close to 30 million heads, making it the 12th largest in the world, with a significant increase since 2017. (BBVA en Colombia Research) At the end of August of 2024, goods exports in Costa Rica reached US$ 24.25 million, an increase of 7% compared to the same period of the previous year. The agricultural sector, second in importance for exports and with a share of 19%, grew by 7% (US$ 310.2 thousand), driven by products such as pineapple, banana and watermelon. The food industry (13% share) registered an increase of 5% (US$ 148.5 thousand). (Promotora del Comercio Exterior de Costa Rica (PROCOMER)) According to a report from the National Water Commission, dams in Mexico show significant variations in storage levels, amid climate conditions and water management in the main agricultural regions. Colima, Guerrero and Guanajuato have reported levels above 90%. While other regions such as Chihuahua, Sonora and Coahuila have reported concerning levels below 20%. (Conagua) Paraguay stood out as the main exporter of soybeans to Brazil in 2024. From January to August, oilseed exports to the Brazilian market reached 781 thousand tonnes, compared to 88 thousand in the same period of 2023. Of this volume, 92% went to industries in the State of Paraná. (DASAGRO Consult)

Cash Receipts: Crops Hit Hard Cash receipts from crop sales are expected to suffer a significant blow in 2024, with a forecasted year-over-year decline of $27.7 billion (10%) to $249 billion. This projected drop is far more severe than the USDA’s original February forecast, which anticipated a $16.7 billion (6%) decrease. Corn receipts, in particular, are forecast to plummet by $16 billion (20%), largely driven by price declines that will more than offset the increase in quantities sold. This represents a sharp downward revision from February’s forecast, which had already projected an $11.3 billion drop in farm sales of corn. Soybean receipts are also expected to decline steeply, falling by $8.6 billion (14.6%), a much larger drop than the $6 billion (10%) drop initially forecast in February. Other major crops like wheat, cotton, and hay will also experience lower receipts, with cotton expected to fall by $1.7 billion (23.6%) and wheat by $1.6 billion (12.3%). This sharp downturn in crop cash receipts, despite – or because of – a bumper crop, has been alarming to farmers who have been battling fluctuating commodity prices and rising input costs. The revised 2024 forecast suggests an exceptionally tough year ahead for these producers. The anticipated drop in receipts for grains and oilseeds is largely a result of a global surplus and weaker market prices, offering little relief for growers. On the bright side, vegetable and melon receipts are expected to rise by $2.5 billion (9.8%) and rice receipts to bump up $250 million (7%), providing a small but positive spot in a sector whose overall outlook remains negative. Selected text is © USDA, 2024. All Rights Reserved. Graphic is © Mark S. Mandula, CLO BCR Learning, 2024. All Rights Reserved.

USDA's First Soybean Planting Progress Report of the Year Shows Planting is Now Underway in 10 States USDA's third Crop Progress report of the year started reporting soybean planting progress, and it shows soybean planting is already underway in 10 states. Corn planting has already begun in 13 states, according to USDA, nearly double last week's total. Nationally, USDA reports 3% of the country's soybean crop is in the ground, the same as this time last year, but two points ahead of the average pace. USDA shows soybean planting is ahead of average in all 10 states that have reported planting so far.  Arkansas farmers are 26% complete, up 11 points from last year and 18 points ahead of average. Kentucky is 8% planted, two points ahead of 2023 and five points quicker than average. Missouri has 8% of its soybeans planted, four points quicker than last year and seven points faster than average. Corn planting is 6% complete across the U.S., a point behind last year but also one point ahead of the five-year-average pace. According to USDA, Missouri is seeing the most progress in the Midwest, with 26% of the crop in the ground as of Sunday, April 14. That's three points ahead of last year and 16 points ahead of the five-year average. While the pace is quicker than last year, it's not as quick as 2012 when 39% of the corn crop was planted as of April 15. Other corn planting highlights include: Illinois is 3% planted, down seven points from 2023 and one point behind average. Iowa is 4% planted, one point behind last year and one point behind average. 3% of the corn crop is planted in Minnesota, which is three points ahead of last year and average.  Photos of Planting Progress  The planting progress story is one of the East versus the West. The East is dealing with saturated soils and too much moisture while parched soils in the West are aiding planting progress. Some farmers in Arkansas and Missouri are even reporting being finished with corn planting already this year, which is a record.  https://lnkd.in/d_DgWzp8

A recent report from the Agricultural Industry Marketing Initiative (AIMI) highlighted the findings of a survey of New Zealand cereal growers, looking at the size of the 2024 harvest of wheat, barley and oats, divided into milling, malting or feed crops. The report also looked at sales channels, storage status, carry-over stocks from the 2023 harvest and sowing intentions for the autumn/winter campaign of 2024.

Overview by AgriBrasilis 2024/25 soybean harvest to reach 52 million tonnes, corn 47 million tonnes and wheat 18.6 million tonnes in Argentina. (Bolsa de Cereales) Eduardo Bastos is the new director of the Institute for the Study of Agribusiness, created by the Brazilian Agribusiness Association. (Associação Brasileira do Agronegócio (ABAG)) At the end of the 2023/24 season, Brazilian orange juice stocks in the world increased 37.7% when compared to the previous cycle, despite a drop in production, which reached 898.6 thousand tonnes (-5%). The 2024/25 season is estimated to reach 215.78 million boxes of 40.8 kg, a drop of 29.8% when compared to the previous season. (CitrusBR) Coffee production is expected to reach 13 million 60 kg bags in Colombia, an increase of 15% when compared to the previous season. (National Federation of Colombian Coffee Growers) Cattle prices have increased more than 100% since 2019 in Colombia. According to Bbva Research, one factor slowing down the sector has been the strong increase in the relative price of beef in relation to other substitute products, also above the general price basket and people’s income. The Colombian cattle herd is close to 30 million heads, making it the 12th largest in the world, with a significant increase since 2017. (BBVA en Colombia Research) At the end of August of 2024, goods exports in Costa Rica reached US$ 24.25 million, an increase of 7% compared to the same period of the previous year. The agricultural sector, second in importance for exports and with a share of 19%, grew by 7% (US$ 310.2 thousand), driven by products such as pineapple, banana and watermelon. The food industry (13% share) registered an increase of 5% (US$ 148.5 thousand). (Promotora del Comercio Exterior de Costa Rica (PROCOMER)) According to a report from the National Water Commission, dams in Mexico show significant variations in storage levels, amid climate conditions and water management in the main agricultural regions. Colima, Guerrero and Guanajuato have reported levels above 90%. While other regions such as Chihuahua, Sonora and Coahuila have reported concerning levels below 20%. (Conagua) Paraguay stood out as the main exporter of soybeans to Brazil in 2024. From January to August, oilseed exports to the Brazilian market reached 781 thousand tonnes, compared to 88 thousand in the same period of 2023. Of this volume, 92% went to industries in the State of Paraná. (DASAGRO Consult) #environment #agriculture #cattle #agribusiness #latinamerica #ESG

Next in my short series on American agriculture.

Reducing Crop Production Costs By James Hoorman, Hoorman Soil Health Services With lower crop prices, many farmers are struggling to make ends meet.  Corn is around $3.50 and soybean $10/bushel, down from a high of $7 for Corn and $15 to $17 for soybeans/bushel.  Brazil crop production continues to drive crop prices lower as they expand acreage into the Amazon forest.  To survive, farmers will need to cut costs.  Here are tips on cutting crop production costs.  Reduce tillage.  The equipment costs, fuel, and maintenance have gone up with inflation from 25%-81%, depending on the tillage operation since 2010.  As a comparison of 2010 to 2023 prices:  Chisel Plow $14 now versus 2023 in $20, a rise of 42%.  Disk Tandem ($13, $17, +31%), Field Cultivate ($11, $17, +55%), Plow ($17, $24, +41%), Soil Finishing tool ($11, $20, 81%), Sub soil ($18, $27, +50%).  Farmers who eliminate at least one tillage pass or go to no-till can save money. … Continue reading https://lnkd.in/gnY7gA-h