From the course: Removing Noise and Bias from Strategic Decision-Making
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Avoiding the cascade bias
From the course: Removing Noise and Bias from Strategic Decision-Making
Avoiding the cascade bias
- In 1961, US President John F. Kennedy authorized 1,400 CIA-trained Cuban expats to invade Cuba. It was a disaster. Almost all of them were captured or killed. Kennedy himself later asked, "How could we have been so stupid?" This event, the Bay of Pigs, became a classic example in the study of Groupthink. You may have heard of this: We all tend to conform in group discussions. We avoid rocking the boat and overlook bad ideas because, in the moment, everyone's going along with them. As Kennedy's special assistant, Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., wrote, "In the months after the Bay of Pigs I bitterly reproached myself for having kept so silent during those crucial discussions in the Cabinet Room." It's normal to wonder later, "Why didn't I say anything?" We don't know how those discussions in the Cabinet Room went down, but it wasn't necessarily just a case of most of the group thinking the plan was fine and a small minority…
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