Winston Ma, CFA Esq.

Semiconductor supply chain security is complex and extends beyond the location of manufacturing facilities. Moving semiconductor chip production to the U.S. from Taiwan might seem like an ideal solution to protect against looming threats from China. However, the semiconductor chip manufacturing process involves multiple international stakeholders. As the Chinese race to advance their semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, the U.S. is "friendshoring," strengthening supply chain security through closer cooperation with allies. The tariff rate on semiconductors will increase from 25% to 50% by 2025. China's policies in the legacy semiconductor sector have led to growing market share and rapid capacity expansion, which risks driving out investment by market-driven firms. However, challenges remain, especially concerning cybersecurity threats, which are becoming increasingly sophisticated and require collaborative international efforts to mitigate. Learn more in our latest insight: https://lnkd.in/ea7cte7t For registered investment advisors only. Important Disclosure: https://lnkd.in/e3VJtU2Q #SemiconductorSecurity #SupplyChain #Manufacturing #TechPolicy #USChinaRelations #InternationalTrade #Cybersecurity #Semiconductors #Friendshoring #TechIndustry #MarketTrends #GlobalEconomy #Tariffs #TechInnovation #SupplyChainSecurity #TechManufacturing #USManufacturing #ChinaTech #LegacySemiconductors #MarketInvestment #GlobalCooperation #TechSupplyChain

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I sometimes wonder if our banking regulatory regime can be explained by an action grasped by the average toddler - squeezing a ballon. Efforts to clamp down on risk are manifested by the squeeze, but, as the toddler can attest, that does not make the balloon smaller for the air will immediately pop up somewhere else.   In the post Apollo-Athene world, are we basically seeing a reconstitution of traditional banking before the Federal Reserve Act and the regulatory regime set in place in response to the financial cataclysm of the Great Depression?    We have been habituated to consider banks as lumbering, tightly regulated, quasi-public institutions, but for millennia, banks were highly entrepreneurial private institutions.    The fundamental requirement of any bank is not access to Fed liquidity but a source of stable capital. With insurance companies as seemingly bottomless fonts of capital, why dance with regulatory devil? In the pre-GFC days, many of those creating these “new old stock” bank equivalents would have been happily dissatisfied plying their trade in the investment banks, but as with the balloon, a hard squeeze and they pop out somewhere else.    Of course, in a pinch, will we have a future JP Morgan to lock the principals in his library to force consensus on action?   Meanwhile, the balloon continues to get squeezed. #banks #alternativeinvestments #fintech Duke Master in Fintech

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I'm honored and grateful, Paul La Monica, that you included me in your article on Tesla. My comments yesterday in Barron's: Christopher Tsai, president and chief investment officer of Tsai Capital, an investment management firm that owned nearly 130,000 shares of Tesla as of the end of December, agrees with Newman. “Misunderstood by much of Wall Street—and consequently a favorite of short sellers—Tesla continues to grow and increase its lead over the competition while delighting consumers in the process,” Tsai said in an email to Barron’s. “Tesla has experienced periods of slowing growth in the past, but these periods proved to be temporary. We expect the company’s growth to accelerate once again,” Tsai added. Important Disclosures: As of 12/31/2023, Tsai Capital owned 129,237 shares of Tesla. Portfolio holdings are subject to change. Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk. For additional disclosure information, please see: https://lnkd.in/ecVD8QxU #tesla #stock #elonmusk #electricvehicles #earnings #fsd #robotaxi

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I can see the skeptics about the Seven & I deal, but there are only 2 paths for the company: 1. Drastic restructuring 2. Get acquired and drastic restructuring Path 1 is already underway, they even changed the name of the company to reflect that, and that would reward existing shareholders. it will take longer, and may be a bumpy ride, but the full valuation can be realized. Path 2 will reward existing shareholders that might come at a discount, but it should happen before the end of next February. Our estimate for their Japan convenience store is a valuation of 30 billion and the US store is worth 10 billion, before any drastic efficiency improvement. The stock is trading at a 44 billion USD market cap now (versus. Couch Tard bidding price of 47 billion and management buyout bid at 58 billion), so you get their vast Asian network for 4 billion, plus the pretty decent Seven and I brand equity, and Seven bank stake that is worth 1 billion, of course, plus a bunch of unprofitable supermarkets and general merchandise stores, at the current market price. But Seven & I is still the world's largest retailer by # of outlets. It is the last listed convenience store here, Lawson and Familymart are already off the block. https://lnkd.in/g6G97gSB

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Is the U.S. Economy Stronger Than We Think? At Yale's recent CEO Caucus, 84% of top CEOs expressed optimism, predicting a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. Surprisingly, 81% were taken aback by the economy’s resilience, despite widespread pessimism in public polls. With inflation dropping and unemployment at historic lows, real wages are growing, and GDP surpassed expectations. CEOs agree: the economy is outperforming the gloomy forecasts. What’s your take on that? Source: https://bit.ly/47Sds0i

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"From The Bronx To Wall Street: My Fifty Years in Finance and Philanthropy" by Leon Cooperman Advantage Media Group (2023) Legendary hedge fund manager, #Cooperman, wrote above mentioned book with cover pages that strongly suggest his publisher was too cheap to hire a professional graphic artist (and a typo on p91). When I saw this book on my local library, I thought it was a self-publication by a town resident until I noticed the author's name. His #Omega long short/equity fund was one of household names in fundamentally driven equity strategies along with #Glenview or #ValueAct. This is a short 200-page read, written in his usual authoritative but logical tone conveyed in Omega's investor letters I enjoyed reading. I recall listening to one of his update calls (well before the age of Zoom) when one investor asked a question. And Cooperman replied somewhat dismissively, "XXX, you haven't been invested with us long enough and perhaps don't understand our approach yet. We can take it off line", which may not be how an investor paying 2 & 20 fees was accustomed to hearing, but that was Cooperman. I was most intrigued by one episode on potential privatization of Azerbaijan's national oil company #NOC, State Oil Company of #Azerbaijan (aka #Socar). He lists four accused individuals by their full names, one of whom I crossed path in my old job, and I finally understood backgrounds of why his sudden disappearance was never explained internally. More importantly, this Socar controversy was total news to me, and I was ashamed of not knowing of this as someone whose day job revolves around NOCs a lot (the other drivers being #SOE & systematically important financial institutions, #SIFI). Central Asian NOCs like Socar have had their share of controversies, most recently this week Kazakhstan asking $150 bil claims against international oil majors #IOC who developed unusually costly #Kashagan project. I thought Brazil govt historically seek the most grande-sized penalties (salt mine collapses? 30+20 bil USD!) un-proportional to damages committed, but some central Asian republics staunchly refuse to be under-bid by Brazilians. I had to re-read Kazak article few times how one can arrive at $150 bil damage figures, which oddly matches total $ FDI the sovereign wants to attract by 2030. When I see non-EM investor crowds optimistically speak of $ billions they hope to collect from unfortunate sudden closing of #CobrePanama copper mine, located in seemingly (previously) stable investment grade country of #Panama, I am reminded of what happened to #Tristan Oil creditors in a similar rated country of #Kazakhstan. Arbitrations over private liabilities, compared to direct and irrevocable obligations of the sovereign itself, seems extremely difficult to collect in some jurisdictions as Cooperman also discovered. Perhaps EM isn’t too far away from rough part of Bronx where Cooperman grew up & I pass in my daily commutes.

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Thanks Bloomberg Businessweek and the reporter Doris YIN for the great interview. "Centaline Family Office" and our team are honored to be interviewed and become part of the cover story: Who Needs a Family Office? This article explores the true essence of a family office - beyond wealth planning, it’s about family succession, including its core values. Leading by example also plays an important role in family governance, while external tools can ensure the succession of wealth and values. With Asia facing a huge wave of wealth transfers, what are the next generation’s top concerns? We are happy to share what we see and how we feel. #familyoffice #wealthplanning #familysuccession #centalinefamilyoffice

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CLO Equity has gained recognition as an institutional investment strategy in recent years. And with good reason. CLO Equity is relatively uncorrelated to other core asset classes and offers the potential for high cash flow and attractive total returns. The drivers of CLO Equity returns, however, are more complex than meets the eye. Conventional wisdom is that the best times to issue CLOs is when the arbitrage (“arb”), or net interest margin, is historically wide. Yet, our analysis, detailed in a recently issued white paper authored by my colleague Stephanie Walsh, suggests this sentiment might be misleading. Despite high initial equity arbitrage being a strong predictor of new CLO creation, it has actually shown a negative correlation with ultimate CLO equity performance. So what are the drivers of CLO Equity performance? To answer this question, it’s essential to look beyond just the arb. We find there are other key influences on CLO performance, such as asset prices, refinancing transactions, and manager expertise, among others. 1) CLOs issued during market downturns, such as in 2020 and 2022, exhibited significant upside, despite poor initial arbitrage, due to subsequent market rallies. 2) Moreover, the ability for CLOs to refinance liabilities after non-call periods added flexibility and, in many cases, substantially lowered debt costs, as seen in the refinancing wave of 2021. 3) Manager expertise also plays a crucial role. We’re privileged to have a 23+ year track record of managing, structuring, trading, and investing in CLOs. Through that experience, we’ve come to understand that credit expertise, loss avoidance, and trading acumen are often key components of CLO portfolio returns. As with many aspects of investing, there is more than meets the eye when assessing the CLO space in our view. We believe one cannot simply look at one or two metrics to determine whether a CLO will perform better or worse relative to history or other CLOs. The arb, and its weak correlation to ultimate CLO equity returns, is a prime example of this. Rather, there are a multitude of factors driving CLO equity returns, some market driven, and others influenced by manager performance and deal structuring. We believe it is important for investors to understand all of these factors when evaluating CLOs and CLO managers. Explore our full thoughts: https://lnkd.in/e48bEvWN

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A US appeals court has struck down the overreaching SEC rules that would have burdened private equity and hedge funds with unnecessary requirements. The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals recognized that the SEC exceeded its authority by mandating detailed quarterly reports and limiting side deals. This unanimous decision is a major victory against Gary Gensler's excessive regulatory agenda, which threatens to stifle growth and innovation in the industry. The court's ruling sends a message that regulators can't bypass Congress to push their ridiculous policies. The SEC's failure to link these new rules to fraud prevention only highlights their lack of justification. It's great to see the court protect our industry from costly and intrusive regulations. This decision reaffirms that the $27 trillion private funds industry, which supports pension funds, universities, and individuals, should not be hindered by unwarranted constraints. While the SEC may consider appealing to the Supreme Court, hopefully, the courts will continue to curb such regulatory overreach.

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Great panel about growth strategies with recently promoted Robert Karofsky (Co- President Americas - UBS) recently promoted Michael Camacho (Head of WM US), and John S. Mathews (Head of PWM - UBS)! Few insights from the private wealth briefing: 1) ~$18T of assets will pass between generations from now to 2030 based on a recent Ernst & Young survey. 2) ~$30T of assets will pass to women between now to 2030 based on a recent McKinsey survey. 3) UBS ARC (Analytical Research Community) is a competitive advantage: connecting tech founders, venture capitalists with high quality sector research. 4) Recently created Unified Global Banking, led by Jennifer Gabrielli aims to bring 'one bank' to the next level with wrap around solutions for private clients and their companies. Thanks for spending time together! Team: Chuck Korasick / Robert Gach / Jen Lechman / Samantha Bloom / Jon Schechter, CFP® / Lizzie / Susan Mgmt: Lauren Gorsche #ubsglobalwealthmanagemnt #pwmconference2024

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BlackRock’s Chairman and CEO Larry Fink highlights in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed that the most realistic path to reducing America’s debt burden is through growth. He discusses the opportunity for the U.S. capital markets to help drive growth by building infrastructure, particularly in data centers and #AI technology. More in the Wall Street Journal: https://1blk.co/4fIBcGW

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How can boards effectively govern and cushion their organizations from the far-reaching consequences stemming from risk and uncertainty? This short essay gives a good framework to understand the topic.

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The secondary market opportunity in Asia Pacific is large with significant potential. As PE/VC investment activity increases in markets like India, that bodes well for secondary market opportunities across both GP led continuation funds as well as LP portfolio. #privateequity #venturecapital #secondaries #investing #Asiapacific #India Bloomberg

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➡️ https://lnkd.in/gAbf4dkS Heading into a contentious U.S. election season, investors need to avoid the noise and remain focused on the factors that will influence markets in the period ahead, including U.S. trade policy, geopolitics, and fiscal deficit management. Read more in our weekly Quick Takes on Capital Markets.

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As the DOW Jones closed above 40,000 for the first time in its history, Olaolu Aganga recently joined the team on CNBC’s Closing Bell to discuss our playbook in alternatives and current strategic and tactical asset allocation views. Through what many have described as a “supercycle” election year, we see large asset owners seeking out stability in longer-term allocations to alternatives – including private credit and private equity. Typically marked to market at a slower rate, exposure to alternatives can provide important stability through more volatile periods. Balancing strategic and tactical decision making across portfolios is all about assessing risk and return relative to time horizon. Strategically, we’ve been neutral on Europe for some time, but tactically, we’ve been looking internationally to capture opportunities across emerging markets, most recently in China where we see valuation distortion. Join the Mercer Investments team and Olaolu Aganga LIVE in Nashville for the Global Investment Forum June 10-12: bit.ly/3Vm71yw

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Last week, we celebrated a major milestone with our 3Q24 financial results, the highest Q3 results in our company’s 20-year history. This achievement reflects our ambitious goals, unwavering dedication to industry-leading innovation, and remarkable teamwork within a firm that consistently challenges the status quo to innovate and excel. The past 18 months have been a period of exceptional growth and evolution for our firm. Throughout this journey, one constant has been the passion and inspiration our team demonstrates daily. Reflecting on 1,000s of engagements with my colleagues across the globe, 10 distinct qualities stand out, contributing to building the foundation for our continued success: 1. Purpose matters - as a global liquidity provider, it's evident in everything we do that driving transparency and efficiency in financial markets is at the heart of what we do. 2. Maintaining a visionary mindset - being exposed to constant change in financial markets, we never stopped adopting a truly visionary industry-defining mindset in everything we built. 3. Continuously focused on creating a lasting impact - we never stop until we have created the best solution for our partners that creates a lasting positive impact. 4. Questioning the status quo - we never get tired of challenging ourselves and questioning the status quo around us, thereby seeking constant improvement in everything we do. 5. Staying entrepreneurial - since our inception, we kept our can-do mindset and constantly excite ourselves in acting as the best entrepreneurs. 6. Seeing the bigger picture and the greater good - we never fail in seeing the bigger picture to know what is best to drive ideas to a greater good for all partners. 7. Preserving our unique technology approach - we never stopped preserving our unique DNA in designing, building, and deploying cutting-edge technology to thrive globally. 8. Insanely focused on details - we know what it takes to make ideas work and we have excelled in being insanely focused on every detail where it matters. 9. Maintaining one of the strongest partnership mindsets - we proudly differentiate ourselves by being dedicated to our partners in delivering industry-defining initiatives with the best collective strengths. 10. Thriving through a second to none teamwork culture - we climb the highest mountains by a truly unique culture that brings the brightest and most dedicated minds together to excel as a team. With these qualities, I have no doubt that we will continue our remarkable journey as a global trading firm committed to driving transparency and efficiency in financial markets. I am excited about the opportunities ahead and grateful to be on this journey with a team that consistently demonstrates commitment and dedication to advancing impactful innovation - from ETP adoption over electronification to digitization, we are at the forefront of transformative change. A thank you to your commitment, dedication, and teamwork!

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