Vinay Vaidya

How much inventory is left in the Permian? In the Midland Basin, we come up with nearly 25,000 locations left -- but the economically viable locations drop dramatically with price. Let's dig in. For this study, we used a data-driven approach to fill in undrilled locations around the Midland Basin. We included infill above and below existing zones, while maintaining at least 500' from parent wells. We covered everything from the Wolfcamp D to the Middle Spraberry, so this doesn't include Barnett/Woodford or other deeper zones (not yet!). Taking into account parent-child relationships and local geologic variation is extremely important. We found our machine learning-based forecasts come up with an average breakeven of $74/bbl, compared to $58/bbl that a traditional type curve area approach would generate. So use caution with type curves! We found less than 10,000 locations with a two-year breakeven below $60/bbl WTI. Of course, driving down costs improves breakevens, but we found huge geologic variation around the basin. The average Tier 1 rock breaks even on average at $60/bbl, but that number for Tier 4 rises to $96/bbl. Surprisingly, emerging zones like the Jo Mill had the lowest breakevens in our study. This likely reflects the relatively limited drilling compared with the Wolfcamp A and B. This study is one of six papers we have at URTeC this year -- you can find more details at the bottom of the image. Big thanks to Brandon M. for leading this study! #oilgas #permian #energy

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I don't know if anyone else has realized this or maybe I was the only who found the EIA-Drilling Productivity report a well laid out and useful data reference, but as of June, it's been discontinued. It's merged as a table with no graphical representations, the monthly Short Term Energy Outlook. In its present format it's virtually useless. Have a look. Am I being too critical? https://lnkd.in/gZZEjVVC

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Among Texas Wildcatters, There’s No One Like the Fearless Rod Lewis One of the best things to discover from a news piece reporting a new oil and gas deal is the story that lies behind it no one’s talking about. That is unless one is inclined to dive deeper to understand the decision maker behind the deal. Reese Energy Consulting today has done just that to feature a fearless, larger-than-life Texas wildcatter billionaire behind the wheel of his 35-year-old company who continues to bet big beyond the border. REC today is following the latest news from Lewis Energy Group (LEG), one of South Texas’ largest gas producers. No secret to folks in the Eagle Ford, the San Antonio-based LEG has never been content to limit the geography of its oil and gas thrill-seeking. Those decisions would fall to its leader, Rod Lewis—coined by Forbes as the “only gringo allowed to drill in Mexico”—who became the first U.S. producer to sign a contract with PEMEX in 2004. And more (ad)ventures lay ahead to include natural gas operations off the coast of Colombia and now Lewis’s latest cold plunge into politically-turmoiled Venezuela with a PDVSA deal to rehab five oilfields in decline—two of which currently produce 3 MBPD. The Biden administration on April 17 ended a sanctions waiver on Venezuelan oil. Lewis and his latest mission to build Latin America’s next energy platform are equally fascinating. Born in the border town of Laredo, Lewis launched his company in 1983 with a single gas well in South Texas and a hellbent ethos to control his own destiny. Over 35 years, he’s proved a quintuple threat stateside with the whole wellhead-to-market enchilada that includes a fleet of drilling rigs, oilfield services, saltwater disposal, end-to-end midstream services, and commodity marketing. Lewis also happens to own the nation’s largest collection of air-worthy WWII fighter planes. What do you think? Learn more about REC and our natural gas and midstream consulting services at https://lnkd.in/ebXT2mS. #entrepreneurship #energy #integration #oilandgas #reeseenergyconsulting

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I asked Matt Kolesar to return to the #energythinkspod because as you can see, I love his optimism. Watch the episode for a peek into our of conversations about #TheMoment. #energyfuture #oilandgas https://lnkd.in/g7bsi6JE

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How many Post-its does it take for ~70 engineers to tackle digital transformation in well construction over 4 days? Answer: enough to cover an entire conference room. Last week, we wrapped up SPE's Forum on "Accelerating Adoption of Digital Transformation in Drilling and Wells." Here's what stood out to me: 1️⃣ Data is everything – From cutting downtime to improving the drilling process safely, it’s all about leveraging equipment, model outputs, and real-time data. The catch? Making those outputs work seamlessly and building trust in them. Integration and data standards are essential. 2️⃣ Collaboration over competition – It’s not just about having the best tools. True progress comes when companies align expectations, share best practices, and work together to move the industry forward. 3️⃣ Mindset shift is key – Digital tools won’t make an impact unless everyone is ready to embrace change. This means buy-in from manufacturers, service companies, the rig floor, and office teams alike. Exciting times for well construction ahead! How do you think we can speed up this shift? 𝘈𝘯𝘥 𝘺𝘦𝘴, 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵’𝘴 𝘢 𝘭𝘰𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘗𝘰𝘴𝘵-𝘪𝘵𝘴! Matt David Gaute Lisa John de Wardt Taylor Shelby Kadri Robin Carlos Moray

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FLOW published on Permian GOR's yesterday. Since this topic brings out the crazies, we detailed empirical evidence of what is changing, and what is not changing. Some surprises. We walk through formation targets, geographies, base declines, and cube development effects. We also investigate the surprises and look at good and bad case studies. This topic is important for both the oil and gas macro picture.

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Volatility in the Argus WTI Midland/MEH differentials can be hedged with the HTT-WTT futures spread, and the recently launched HTT-WTT Average Price (LHN) options.

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Great TGS article by Matt Mayer!

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At a West Texas Geological Society luncheon, Luis Baez, Permian Basin water manager for ConocoPhillips emphasized the unique advantages of the Permian Basin, describing it as a region with "great geology, operating excellence by industry, diverse supply chains, and a favorable commercial environment." He praised the Permian’s strong infrastructure, including service providers, operators, and pipelines, which have allowed the region to significantly increase production. Baez also noted that the innovations and knowledge gained in the Permian are being exported to other global shale plays, highlighting the role of geoscientists in driving continuous learning, technical innovation, and operational excellence. https://lnkd.in/gBX3rwgX

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What impact has the IRA and IIJA had on U.S. energy policy? During the Baker Hughes Annual Meeting 2024, esteemed panelists Jack Fusco, Paul Marsden, Mike Sommers and moderator, Rita Lofana, addressed this important topic and debated the potential scale of impact of the IRA and IIJA on the development of new energies globally and addressed the implications of the Biden-Harris administration's decision to temporarily pause on pending approvals of LNG exports. Watch the highlights video below for key takeaways from this engaging discussion and visit the #BHAM2024 proceedings page for more great content: https://lnkd.in/e4gPb4z8 #EnergizingChange #BakerHughes #Energy #EnergyTechnology #EnergyTransition #Innovation #WeAreBakerHughes

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Harness the power of analytics and AI in your unconventional assets!

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Hey, Oil & Gas Producers: Let's skip the fluff. This app increases profit in your oil & gas production company by streamlining communication with the field to reduce downtime and increase production. Period. No clunky, overcomplicated, overpriced legacy software. No need to adopt new tactics or make changes to your operation. Just let me back up our claims with testimonials from independent operators. I know this sounds too good to be true. Trust me, I get it. However, none of this is a stretch when you think about how it works. We streamline communication between you and your pumpers, centralizing all info to improve production and keep things from falling through the cracks. In simple terms: (1) Greasebook enables pumpers to submit all production data through their smartphones at the well site, even without internet connectivity. (2) Greasebook gives you access to the status of each pumper and the performance of every well in your business. (3) This enables you to produce hydrocarbons more effectively than using text messages, phone calls, Excel sheets, or outdated software. When you do this: A. Waste in communication among your team is eliminated. B. Pumpers' performance increases because they know they're being held accountable. C. Your company can produce more oil and gas for less spend than others using outdated, expensive, and complicated systems. It's like having a production manager sit shotgun with your pumper to optimize production. Simple? Yes. Effective? Oh, YES!! And unlike having your production manager ride along, our app lets them maximize contributions from anywhere. We set everything up for you, build your wells, train your pumpers, and walk you through every step. Seriously, don't take my word for it. Every customer has 60 days to try us. If you don't see huge savings and streamlined communication, we pay you 2X what you spent. We have top producers in 22 oil and gas-producing states. With our 200% money-back guarantee, if we weren't doing something right, we'd be broke by now. Take 2 seconds to click this post and see how we can streamline your operations and turn your outfit into the most profitable version of itself. Most operators see results in just 1 week after starting the app. Without exaggeration, it could be the most cost-efficient thing you do this year. If this sounds interesting, click 'Learn More' and schedule a 5-minute 'Prove It' call here >> www.greasebook.com/vsl → Achieve results in less than 1 week. → "No-sweat" company set-up, turn-keyed by a Petroleum Engineer. → "Done for you" Pumper roll-out and training. → Unprecedented 60-day, 200% money-back guarantee. Schedule your 5-minute 'Prove It' call here >> www.greasebook.com/vsl

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While the world consumes itself with theories of conspiracy, shall we momentarily turn our attention back to hydraulic fracturing? In the frac world, US land dwarfs all other regions, but consider the following two graphs which show our firm's estimates of frac revenue for each service company in US land and International 2010 - 2023. Not included here is Canada. Sorry Canada...I'll be there on Thursday and will apologize in person. During the last 15 years or so, international frac spending has bumped up against $5B most years, cycling down when the world was awash in oil. Meanwhile, US frac spending gyrated from $9B to $35B...but now that E&Ps have discovered financial discipline, we see stability at just under $20B per year. In our frac report you'll read that 2024 and 2025 continue these trends - international frac is up just a bit and US land frac is down just a bit. Takeaway: US Land frac market is good enough and stable. International is good and rising slowly. A well run frac service company in 2024 and 2025 should be able to make a lot of money while providing a great service at a fair price for its E&P customers.

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Perhaps that will include dynamic petrophysics - changing the near wellbore environment and making repeat measurements that observe phase changes and solubility effects. Continuous real-time high-resolution surveillance and analysis must be the future. To do that we need new measurements and techniques. Break the paradigm. Think out of the box! The Aliso Canyon nat gas storage project leaked, resulting in a $1.8 billion charge to SoCal Gas. Here’s another project of concern https://lnkd.in/gYYg6rJu The industry’s track record for containment is not great. What will insurers charge for CCUS projects? #petrophysics

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US Shale GAS well are about 2.5 X as productive as US Shale oil wells.

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Building a statistical model for oil production of a US shale well, or its production per lateral foot, is increasingly difficult due to infill drilling and well interference. Following in the footsteps of Kevin Tanner, Walt Dobbs, P.E. and Steve Nash (https://lnkd.in/gjfV7t9w), my colleague Jesse Rossman et al. recently proposed to implicitly incorporate well interference by evaluating how production per area changed as a function of the number of wells per section and the total clean volume used to frac per acre: https://lnkd.in/g4mHUMHA. This method basically assumes there is a trade-off when harvesting oil from a shale reservoir that depends on the number of wells (or lateral feet/acre) and the size of fracs (or volume pumped/acre) from these wells. As the fracture surface area grows with about the volume to the power 0.4 – 0.7 (the remainder generates width), the diminishing returns from larger frac volumes may at some point be topped by adding more lateral feet of wellbore. My colleague Howard Melcher updated this analysis for a few basins, and I am reporting on his results for the DJ Basin below. Below you see the 3-year production in bbl/acre plotted versus Wells Per Section (WPS) and total clean frac volume per acre. He is highlighting two production datapoints per square mile for reference in both graphs – the yellow hand pointing to the modest 8 WPS and large fracs at 100 bbl/ft; the brown hand pointing to the high 28 WPS and the small fracs at 20 bbl/ft. One interesting observation from the trendlines in these graphs is that the Power Law Exponent (PLE) is close to unity for the WPS sensitivity and only 0.82 for the clean frac volume sensitivity, indicating more diminishing returns in production when just making fracs bigger as compared to virtually no diminishing returns in production when one drills (and fracs) more wells. More wells with modest-sized fracs appears the way to more production in this area. Of course, the real trade-off is in the economics – incorporating the cost to drill, to frac, and the revenue from production. However, this analysis may provide a scoping tool for further production enhancement in specific basins and areas. #innovation #shalerevolution #energy #oilgas #fractrends #fraconomics #BDFC

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Has the market fully grasped the potential of the Uinta Basin? On Friday, we're running a webinar that dives into why the Uinta Basin is poised to deliver Permian-level results at a comparable development density, with promising early indicators of its growth trajectory. Additional topics include an exploration of demand and egress dynamics for Uinta's waxy crude, comparative operational expenditures across different plays, and an analysis of the play's upside potential. Register HERE: https://lnkd.in/g5sJu5Xu

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