𝙒𝙝𝙮 𝙖 𝘾𝙡𝙤𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝙀𝙭𝙞𝙩 𝙈𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙈𝙖𝙩𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙎𝙩𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙪𝙥𝙨 𝙏𝙤𝙙𝙖𝙮 — 𝙀𝙫𝙚𝙣 𝙄𝙛 𝙔𝙤𝙪’𝙧𝙚 𝙔𝙚𝙖𝙧𝙨 𝘼𝙬𝙖𝙮 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙖𝙣 𝙄𝙋𝙊 𝙤𝙧 𝙎𝙖𝙡𝙚
Founders, employees and investors realize returns on their startup equity when there is an exit -- typically through an IPO or a sale of the company (M&A).
Driven by macroeconomic and other factors, the market for IPOs and M&A fluctuates like any other market, with periods of intense activity and periods of sluggishness.
Right now, we’re navigating a prolonged "closed" exit market, meaning IPO and M&A opportunities are relatively diminished.
For many early-stage startups, this may seem largely irrelevant since their own exits may still be many years away.
So why should early-stage startups care?
The reality is that a closed exit market has a cascading effect on the entire startup ecosystem that affects valuations across all stages. Here’s why:
🔻 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐮𝐦: Investors value startups not just on growth potential but also on the likelihood and timing of an exit. When exits are delayed, the investment appears riskier, and investors demand a higher “risk premium” to compensate. This means they’ll push for lower valuations to balance the extended time horizon and market volatility, dampening valuations across stages.
🔻 𝗥𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗔𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: Slower exits mean less capital returns to LPs, reducing liquidity to reinvest in new VC funds. With fewer resources, VCs have limited capital for startups, reducing competition for deals and ultimately driving down valuations.
🔻 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗕𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗵𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝘀: Exit activity, especially in public markets, sets valuation benchmarks across stages. In periods of strong IPO performance, private valuations rise with high confidence in exit multiples. But when IPOs stall, private market benchmarks adjust downward, impacting valuations even in early rounds.
🔻 𝗟𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲: The broader ecosystem’s optimism relies on visible exits. Scarcity of exits creates market stasis, making VCs and founders more cautious which leads to lower startup valuations .
While we’ve been navigating a well-documented closed exit market, signs suggest it may open up in 2025.
Lowering interest rates, stabilizing inflation, a completed election cycle and a pipeline of mature companies ready for IPOs are aligning to create a more favorable environment.
If these trends hold, we could see exit markets opening up, improving liquidity and renewing confidence across the startup ecosystem.
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