Anthony Colaizzo

With the 4th of July holiday fast approaching, I wanted to take a look at where June’s dry van truckload spot market rates stand to get a sense if the market is showing any signs of turning. Two charts below using data from DAT Freight & Analytics. Thoughts: •Top chart shows dry van spot rates as well as dry van broker buy contract rates. Dry Van spot rates, while up $0.06 per mile from the April low, are down $0.03 per mile from June 2023. Given diesel prices are down just $0.08 per gallon from a year ago (https://lnkd.in/g5sUVM8V), fuel isn’t driving this difference. •June 2024’s $0.03 increase over May is quite weak relative to what we have traditionally seen in dry van TL bull markets. In 2014 the increase was $0.11 per mile; in 2017 it was $0.10 per mile; and in 2018 it was $0.17 per mile. For that matter, the increase was $0.10 in 2019 (a down year)! As such, spot prices so far are a sign of a cruel summer—my daughter is obsessed with Taylor Swift—from a pricing standpoint. •Bottom chart shows the dry van spot market cycle indicator (DVSMCI), calculated as the broker buy rate less the spot rate, with the difference divided by the average of the two measures. That ratio is currently 16.6%. While better than last year’s 19.9% reading, we are well away from the 10% threshold where we have tended to see markets flip. Implication: dry van spot market data suggest that folks who made predictions of the dry van truckload market flipping from bear to bull in late Q2 or early Q3 likely made an overly optimistic forecast. I increasingly believe the earliest the market could meaningfully flip is Q2 2025, and this will require many things to go right from carriers’ vantages for this to occur. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload

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FYI: Record number of non-asset based 3PLs at our career fairs. These freight brokerage firms have numerous jobs. Note, they tend to be SALES related, so it is all about fit. 3PLs Need Data Analytics to Save Money. Solution? Hire WMU students that minor in Business Data Analytics (w/ these skills): 1. Advanced Excel (power query & pivot) & macros; 2. Data visualization (Tableau, Power BI & python w/ seaborn & matplotlib); 3. Data mining/RapidMiner, machine learning & data science; 4. Python & Jupyter notebook (data analytics & statistical libraries such as pandas, numpy); 5. Relational data models (Excel data model); and, 6. Graphic & statistical libraries (Seaborn, Matplotlib, Pandas, & Plotly). 3PLs & 4PLS: The WMU ISM supply chain career fairs have the largest presence of 3PLs & 4PLs that I have ever see. This is great news. This is a huge almost $1 Trillion industry & job market! Just remember, it’s all about match. “Non-asset” based 3PLs (i.e., freight brokerage firms)/4PLs tend to offer sales broker commission-based jobs. “ Asset”-based jobs might more resemble SCM jobs (rather than Sales) Supply Chain students & managers- As a professor, I sometimes really stumble when I explain the difference between asset based versus non asset based and 3PL vs 4PL. Here is my version: https://lnkd.in/eXFWG37 https://lnkd.in/geUnstfC A 4PL (Fourth Party Logistics Provider) is an org that can do all logistics for a company & a 3PL (Third Party Logistics Provider) can actually only perform some logistics. 3PLs are evolving into 4PLs. For example, Coyote Logistics (CL) has actually evolved into a “non asset” based "4PL" because they can do everything logistics related for customers. However, because they are non asset based, they do not own anything themselves. They just outsource everything to 3PLs & manage the process for their customers (and they do this exceptionally well). Why would their customers not do this themselves? Because CL can do it better, faster, & cheaper (hands down). Another example, JB Hunt would be considered an “asset” based 4PL because they can perform all logistics services with their own stuff/assets (like trucks, drivers, containers, etc.). JB Hunt actually owns the stuff it takes to store and move things around (they are actually doing it for you themselves using their own assets – they are not outsourcing it). I think getting a job at CL would be an excellent opportunity for SCM students in general. Just keep in mind that non asset based 3PLs such as CL, CH Robinson, TQL, etc, recruit across all majors, especially general mgmt, general mktg, & sales mktg. I would prefer that SCM students work for companies that pay a premium for your SCM degree. However, 3PLs provide services in an industry that you are majoring in, so to that extent it is a great match for you. Again, some of these jobs with the non asset types tend to be sales/broker (middle-man) jobs that are commission based.

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I want your opinion! I have created 26 questions that I plan on asking to our awesome executive supply chain panel in 10 days at CSCMP Edge in Nashville! I would LOVE and APPRECIATE you all coming up with the last 4 questions you would ask them. Topic is senior leadership retention. 1. What strategies have you found most effective in retaining top talent within your supply chain teams? Can you provide specific examples? 2. How do you ensure your supply chain staff feel valued and appreciated? What role does recognition play in your retention efforts? 3. What are the biggest challenges you’ve faced in retaining skilled employees in a competitive market? How did you address them? 4. How do you balance the need for cost control with the need to offer competitive salaries and benefits to retain top talent? 5. In what ways have you utilized flexible work arrangements to improve employee retention? Can you share a success story? 6. How do you assess and improve the work-life balance of your supply chain employees? What impact has this had on retention rates? 7. What role does career development play in your retention strategy? How do you ensure that employees see a clear path for growth within the company? 8. How do you handle the departure of key employees? What strategies do you implement to mitigate the impact on your supply chain operations? 9. What retention challenges do you foresee in the next 5-10 years, and how are you preparing to address them? 10. How do you leverage employee feedback to enhance retention strategies? Can you give an example where feedback led to a positive change? 11. What specific qualities do you look for when identifying potential future leaders within your supply chain teams? 12. How do you create opportunities for employees to develop leadership skills? Can you provide examples of programs or initiatives that have been successful? 13. What role does mentorship play in developing future leaders in your organization? How do you structure your mentorship programs? 14. How do you ensure that future leaders are prepared for the challenges specific to supply chain management, such as risk mitigation and global logistics? 15. In what ways do you incorporate cross-functional training to build well-rounded leaders in your supply chain teams? 16. How do you measure the success of your leadership development programs? What key metrics do you use? 17. Can you share an example of a junior team member who successfully transitioned into a leadership role? What were the key factors in their development? 18. How do you balance the need for developing future leaders with the immediate demands of daily supply chain operations? 19. What role does diversity play in your leadership development strategy? How do you ensure a diverse pipeline of future leaders? 20. How do you foster a culture of continuous learning and innovation among your future leaders to keep pace with the rapidly evolving supply chain landscape?

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Getting a C-suite leader on significant RFQ calls or involved in the process isn’t the worst decision you can make It signals a few things: Internally ·      You’re committed to the shipper’s business ·      You’re serious about understanding the process ·      You’re entire organization understands the importance of this opportunity ·      A comprehensive approach can be communicated internally ·      Everyone is aligned Externally ·      Differentiates your company from the other bidders ·      The shipper might appreciate that level of visibility ·      It might help build long term relationships This is not for every bid, be strategic and elevate your company profile #getinvolved #bedifferent #strategicthinking

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Wayfair’s Strategic Resilience Amidst Economic Turbulence: A Closer Look at Q1 Outcomes   In Q1 2024, Wayfair reported a slight decrease in net sales by 1.6% year over year, totaling $2.7 billion.   Despite this minor decline, strategic elements within their earnings report suggest potential pathways for resilience and growth.   Here’s a breakdown of Wayfair's performance and strategic implications:   👉 Revenue Analysis: The U.S. market saw a modest revenue decline of 1%, with a more significant downturn internationally at 5.8%. These figures indicate localized challenges but also spotlight areas where targeted strategies could foster recovery and growth.   👉 Operational Efficiencies: Wayfair's proactive measures to reduce operating loss to $235 million and net loss to $248 million in Q1 demonstrate improved cost management and operational efficiency amidst challenging economic conditions.   👉 Customer Engagement: Active customers reached 22.3 million, a 2.8% increase from the previous year. However, the net revenue per active customer declined by 2.8%, suggesting a gap in conversion or spending per visitor that needs bridging.   Strategic Initiatives and Market Positioning:   👉 Brand and Marketing Innovations: The launch of the “Welcome to the Wayborhood” campaign and updates like a new logo and celebrity partnerships signify a robust brand refresh initiative aimed at invigorating the market presence and consumer appeal.   👉 Physical Expansion Strategy: The upcoming opening of a large-format store in Illinois represents a strategic shift towards integrating physical and online retail experiences, potentially enhancing customer engagement and operational capabilities.   Looking Ahead: Strategic Opportunities and Risks   👉 Enhanced Customer Value Proposition: With the increase in customer base but decreased spending per customer, Wayfair could explore strategies to enhance product offerings and customer service to increase average order value.   👉 International Market Optimization: Addressing the sharp decline in international markets may require localized marketing strategies, diversified product offerings, and improved logistical operations to better meet regional needs.   👉 Technological Integration: Leveraging advanced technologies to improve the user interface, personalize shopping experiences, and streamline logistics could significantly boost efficiency and customer satisfaction.   👉 Sustainability and Supply Chain Resilience: Investing in sustainable practices and enhancing supply chain resilience could not only improve operational efficiencies but also align Wayfair closer with growing consumer expectations for environmental responsibility.   Wayfair has the tools and the opening—now, it must seize the moment and redefine its destiny in the home goods market.   What are your thoughts on Wayfair’s current strategy and its future in the retail industry? #wayfair #strategy #retail #analysis #technology

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The June trucking ton-mile index continues to suggest that for-hire trucking freight demand is moving along the bottom of a trough, with no sign yet of an unseasonal uptick. One chart below. Thoughts: •This chart shows seasonally adjusted trucking ton-miles back to January 2013 (to capture the past several freight market cycles). On a seasonally adjusted basis, June 2024 was down 0.4% from May 2024 and down 0.7% from June 2023. The “good” news” is that this is one of the smallest negative seasonally adjusted year-over-year readings since the start of the current freight recession, providing more evidence that we are indeed at a bottom regarding demand. •Concerning sectors driving the year-over-year weakness, we continue to see negative year-over-year readings for quarrying and oil & gas well drilling, nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing, machinery manufacturing, fabricated metal product manufacturing, primary metal manufacturing, furniture manufacturing & wholesaling, lumber & construction supplies wholesaling, metal wholesaling, and machinery wholesaling. The common theme is these sectors all are interest rate centric regarding demand. •Even if the FOMC cuts interest rates by 50 basis points in September, as was noted in Bloomberg recently (https://lnkd.in/e2cbrjYD), it’s too late to turn around the housing market. Q2 2025 is when effects will meaningfully materialize (not coincidentally the same period I’ve repeatedly noted is the first realistic time frame for the dry van truckload market to turn bullish from a pricing standpoint). Implication: the seasonal tightening of capacity we saw in the truckload sector in June wasn’t due so much to strong overall demand, but rather capacity exit since last year. This said, bull markets don’t begin because too much capacity exits; they begin because of sharp increases in demand. I don’t see such increases occurring in 2024. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #markets  

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CSCMP EDGE, the Council for Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) premier annual conference, is next week: September 29 through October 2 in Nashville, Tennessee: https://lnkd.in/gT-KGjp4 I will be in attendance Sunday evening 9/29 through Tuesday evening 10/1. If you plan on attending the conference, it would be great to meet up with you to discuss how our Data Driven Supply Chain LLC team uses decision science, data, and artificial intelligence to help our clients tackle their toughest supply chain problems... problems like supply chain design, inventory optimization, manufacturing optimization, demand forecasting, and more. I'd love to discuss case studies from our previous clients, including: Inventory Simulation for National Restaurant Chain (https://lnkd.in/gnTUK3bs) Inventory Optimization & Network Design for National Auto Parts Distributor (https://lnkd.in/gabbeNWq) Manufacturing Schedule Optimization for National Packaged Foods Manufacturer (https://lnkd.in/gabbeNWq) Agricultural Leader Supply Chain Network Optimization (https://lnkd.in/gb25zevY) Please reach out via LinkedIn message to set up a meeting. Hope to see you in Nashville! #cscmp #cscmpedge #supplychaindesign #supplychainanalytics #inventoryoptimization #manufacturingoptimization #supplychain #logistics #decisionscience #ai

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Watching negotiations closely and hoping the USMX and ILA can come to an agreement today. If a strike does occur, CTPAT members have an advantage. Check out our Centipid's team post for more info. #centipid #supplychainsecurity #ctpat

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For years, I've been searching for a general theoretical explanation to explain the onset of bull market dry van truckload cycles. The three bull markets requiring explanation started around Q1/Q2 2014, Q2/Q3 2017, and Q3 2020. The story can't be about aggregate demand, as total demand in Q3 2020 was actually down from Q3 2019 because of slow heavy manufacturing production. However, reading this paper by George & Kuhn (2019; https://lnkd.in/gzM_UGxB), I believe I now have an explanation, sketched below (and in the image). •The crux of the argument is that bull market pricing cycles occur when an increasing percentage of dry van TL carriers reach full capacity utilization. As capacity is fixed in the near-term and carriers experiencing convex costs as they approach full capacity utilization, there is a point where they can't service any more demand. Nothing too surprising here. •The question: what can cause an increasing percentage of carriers to reach full utilization? One situation is a general increase in demand across many carriers (what economists would call a positive demand shock). This occurred in 2014 and 2017. •Where the cited article comes into play: we can see more carriers reach maximum capacity utilization even if a demand shock is on average negative (as in Q3 2020 vs Q3 2019) if the standard deviation of those firm-level demand shocks gets much wider. This is exactly what happened with the pandemic, with some firms such as building material retailers seeing huge surges of demand, whereas others like department scores saw sales plunge. •The fact we have many very large demand shocks (as captured by the larger standard deviation) pushes more carriers to their capacity utilization limit. Hence more freight rejected and placed on the spot market. We have just explained Q3 2020. Implication: I'm curious the thoughts y'all have about this explanation. To the best of my knowledge, I'm the first to draw on the concept of how the standard deviation of carrier-level demand shocks showed a huge increase in standard deviation after the COVID-19 pandemic's onset.

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What is the most valuable commodity in Supply Chain Management? (clue: same answer if you insert Life for SCM)... Time. But Time is a hard concept to wrap your arms around so it’s helpful to have specific examples of how and why Time is so valuable. ‘Buying’ time can be a powerful competitive lever and one that a company can leverage quickly. It is at the heart of another central theme that often suffers from lip service and generalization: Agility. Upstream supply disruptions are good examples of how some companies can ‘buy’ more time than others. In this case the disruption is to aluminum* supply. The companies that bought more time than others did it in three ways: 1. Knowing about the disruptive event (size, location, impact) before others. 2. Knowing how the supplier is connected to their supply network and production. 3. Having plans in place (even if not specific to this event) that enabled action to be taken quickly. It sounds simple but most companies have not put the processes in place to optimize these actions (and every company can improve). If you make cars or supply those that do, I’d recommend reading this report that explains the challenges and provides case studies as to how some OEMs have created processes that ‘buy’ them Time...https://lnkd.in/eXDSjjU6 (worth a read even if you are not in the auto industry as many of the lessons are transferable). * Even after 25 years in the US I still get blank stares when I say Aluminum (and Tomato). #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #supplychainrisk #supplychainriskmanagement Daniel Stanton, Brian Laung Aoaeh, CFA, Radu Palamariu, Rushit Shah, Dr. Marcell Vollmer, Sheri R. Hinish, Wolfgang Lehmacher, Benjamin Gordon, Stan Aronow, Joe Carson, Greg Schlegel CPIM, CSP, Jonah, Scott Luton, Alan Amling, Marian Temmen, Rob Handfield, Prof. Dr. Larry Wigger, Dr. Klaus Dohrmann, Gary S. Lynch, Dr. Karsten Machholz, Tom Raftery, Chris Peters, Fathi Tlatli, Ron Hesse, Laura Lorenzetti, Phil LeBeau, Kelly Thomas, Sime Curkovic, Jason Miller, Nick Wildgoose

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Next January, some of the biggest names in supply chain will gather at the 19th BG Strategic Advisors Conference in Palm Beach, FL. It’s a key event for CEOs and C-suite leaders focused on innovation and strategic growth. One of the highlights? The BGSA Supply Chain “Shark Tank” competition. Emerging companies will pitch their most innovative solutions to industry leaders and investors, aiming to secure funding that could skyrocket their growth. This is where real opportunities are born, and the future of supply chain innovation begins. Here’s what supply chain startups can expect: ➡️ Innovation at the Forefront: Groundbreaking solutions addressing real-world supply chain challenges. ➡️ Investor Access: Direct exposure to top investors with a shot at funding and strategic partnerships. ➡️ Industry Impact: These ideas often shape the next wave of supply chain advancements. If you’re mapping out your 2025 calendar, make sure this event is on your radar. There are only 6 spots available for the Shark Tank, and the deadline is October 1, 2024. Don’t wait—apply now (link in the comments). P.S. Do you know a supply chain startup who should be in the spotlight? Tag them below! #BGSA2025 #SharkTank #SupplyChainInnovation #Leadership #Networking

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Amazon driver shoots at a school bus. Fortunately nobody was hurt and the driver is in custody. The altercation was over an illegal parking job. The Amazon van was parked illegally on the corner, and the school bus couldn't make the turn with the van there. A school bus aide got out to ask the driver to move, and at that point there was an altercation and shots were fired. So much went wrong here, and this was very preventable. Is the driver to blame? Yes But the reality is Amazon created the conditions that led to this. Amazon (and most delivery carriers) create routes in urban areas that REQUIRE illegal parking to complete the route on time. I'll say it again: Drivers NEED to park illegally to complete their routes in the time allotted. Carriers could design routes to allow more time for each delivery, but that would cost more. The carriers also have pretty detailed GPS and video logs from their drivers and could monitor when parking is illegal. As far as I know they do not. This creates the situation we have: stressed delivery drivers double parking, or parking in intersections, or parking on the sidewalk to get their job done in the small amount of time allotted. Carriers could try to stop it, or or they could increase the allowed time per delivery, but they don't. In the extreme this event is what we end up with. As a parent and a resident of Philadelphia near where this incident occurred, I cannot accept that this inefficient and dangerous system is something we just have to accept and live with. We can do better as an industry. We need to innovate how parcels get to people's homes so that our communities are safe, our streets are clear, and drivers don't have to put their own safety on the line to do their jobs. https://lnkd.in/eiwN-e75

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CLDA’s Member Resource Center is a game-changer for everyone in your company—offering tools, insights, and support to help you thrive. Best part? It’s free for members! If you’re not a member yet and want to learn more, reach out to [email protected]—don’t miss out on this invaluable resource! #CLDA #CourierLogistics #BusinessResources #IndustryGrowth

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Where are dry van truckload prices at? With DAT’s most recent data released this week, as well as the BLS’s PPI for general freight trucking, long-distance, truckload [primary services], I wanted to share my thoughts. Two charts below. Thoughts: •Top chart shows DAT’s dry van spot rates (red) and what they call contract rates (black) (including fuel). Both continue to move in parallel. Historically, every major market shift (2014, mid-2017, mid-2020) has corresponded to a sharp uptick in dry van spot rates, inclusive of diesel prices. We just aren’t seeing any signs of such an uptick now, which further solidifies my view that we can write of 2024 as the year the market could turn. It’s time to turn the page to 2025. •Bottom chart shows the producer price index for the commoditized portion of dry van TL freight (which includes fuel). That index continues to move sideways. Historically, as with spot rates (but to a much lesser extent [at least in 2014 and 2017-2018), we will see these rates spike when market cycles change. The BLS’s data likewise is corroborating this hasn’t happened yet. Implication: despite a lot of excitement with the election outcome, the brutal reality is that the dry van truckload sector needs a significant infusion of freight to get out of the current “limbo” conditions where we have seen one cycle end but have yet to see another cycle begin. To continue to echo the prediction I’ve made for several months, the soonest I see the market meaningfully changing towards carriers’ favor would be late Q1 to early Q2 2025. We will need to closely watch demand signals over the coming months, especially data on manufacturing new orders. For the late Q1 to early Q2 market turn to materialize, we will need to see a rapid uptick in new orders over the next few releases from ISM. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #economics #trucking 

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Baltimore bridge reroute will add 16-20 minutes to each order. And the imports will be delivering to multiple east coast ports. Next is produce season. Truckload rates bottomed out back Feb/Mar. The balance will start favoring carriers. So all the 2024 RFPs that are completed or are WIP will be obsolete. That will impact the shippers cost and service. Shippers do you utilize a true dynamic procurement process? Less then 1% do currently. Are you ready? #truckload #priceincreases #dynamicprocurement #pivot #SCM-NWF

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Let's be honest... Supply Chain & Logistics are key indicators ↳ Indicators of the ebbs & flows of... ↳ Markets & Economies. There is a driving force rushing for the shoreline. ↳ Let's dig a little deeper into "ABOUT LAST WEEK". → Port Infrastructure Progress. → Stabilizing Shipping Costs. → Trucking Industry Tides. → Fuel Price Forecast. ▽ P.S. Let's talk about more than the... ↳ Whether or... ↳ Sports. With Love, -DW #DWrites #Business #AboutLastWeek

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CNBC today published the article linked below stating, "America's freight recession is nearing its end...with retail orders and rates headed higher." There are just a few problems: [1]: The article cites data from Motive showing truck visits to distribution centers of the top 5 retailers are up 30% year-over-year as evidence. While Walmart, Target, Costco, Home Depot, and Amazon are indeed large entities (assuming these are the 5 retailers mentioned), they are a small fraction of the overall freight market. And I highly question this figure's accuracy, as Census Bureau data aren't showing sharp increases in retail sales in these sectors to match. [2]: The article ignores that Cass's shipments data for June showed a steep slide to the worst reading in 4 years. Cass shipments is directionally very predictive of freight market dynamics. [3]: The article states, "Data across the retail sector shows year-over-year order increases through June, including at department stores, electronics, and apparel retailers with bricks-and-mortar locations (32.9%), home improvement (24.4%), grocery & superstores (22.1%), and discount retailers & wholesalers (13%)." These numbers can't be accurate nationally, as we aren't seeing increases in real sales or real inventories even close to these totals for these industries based on Census Bureau data. Implication: retail trade is NOT the primary driver of domestic trucking activity. Rather, its domestic manufacturing, and domestic manufacturing output continues to be weak. We are finally seeing signs that seasonally adjusted manufacturing output found a bottom in several industries in late Q1/early Q2 2024, but we still have a way to go before this freight recession ends for trucking firms. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #shipsandshipping #trucking #freight https://lnkd.in/gAUpaa-Q

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