SILVERIO ZEBRAL FILHO

As part of China’s broader growing presence in Latin America and the Caribbean, Chinese science diplomacy has also increased. There are important steps that the U.S. can take to increase the impact of its own science diplomacy in the region. Thrilled to share my latest article published with the support of the FIU Jack D Gordon Institute for Public Policy and featured on Global Americans. https://lnkd.in/eYWkw-Fu.

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Honored to deliver a keynote at the IAOS – ISI 2024 International Statistics Conference “Improving Decision-Making for All” organized by International Association for Official Statistics (IAOS), International Statistical Institute - ISI and National Institute of Statistics and Geography of Mexico (INEGI) in #Mexico. #Data is the infrastructure and a precondition for effective policymaking. It is also a critical input for improving people’s lives. Yet, its potential is constrained, particularly in the poorest countries. Sustainable improvements in data for policy require deeper investments in the performance of statistical systems. Investing in data-powered development. Count on the The World Bank’ support in the modernization of statistical systems and capacity building.

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The recent call to update US antitrust guidelines for “competitor collaborations” is welcome- at least up to a point (Sabin Center for Climate Change and the Colombia Center on Sustainable Investment- joint report of 15 May). First the positives. It calls for the outdated 2000 “Antitrust Guidelines for Collaborations Among Competitors” to be updated and to clarify the boundaries between permissible and impermissible cooperation in areas like climate change using sustainability examples. It also refers to the considerable progress in this area in other jurisdictions (like the EU and UK), the silence from US authorities , and how threats from the anti ESG movement has had a dissuasive effect on private sector efforts on climate change and sustainability. Finally it notes that many such efforts do not impact the main parameters of competition and should be free to proceed without undue antitrust concerns —but rightly says that clarification on this would be helpful and discourage the “politicised weaponisation” of antitrust in this area. So far, so good. However, the report is over timid in many respects fearing that any carve outs , safe harbours or exemptions in this area could lead to obfuscation or abuse. This prompts 4 thoughts: 1. Why should this area be any more prone to abuse than other areas? Furthermore, these can be challenged in the usual way by the antitrust authorities- and the report notes the recent “reinvigorated antitrust enforcement at a scale and pace not seen in decades” in the US (and huge fines have been imposed in this area in the EU in cases like AdBlue). 2. The whole point of guidelines is to reduce obfuscation and bring clarity to this area. 3. It is suggested “Sustainability “ is too broad to warrant special exemptions or safe harbours . This may be right but any more favourable treatment could be carefully delimited (as per the UK’s “more permissive approach” for “Climate Change Agreements”). 4. In any case (in Europe at least) we have not called for carve outs but called for the existing law to be properly applied taking into account the existing conditions for an exemption and fundamental principles like the “polluter pays” principle to be taken into account. That said, a report calling for an end to the silence from the US agencies and opening up a road for dialogue and an updating of US guidelines is welcome. #antitrust #competitionlaw #sustainsbility #climatechange #europeancommission #ftc #doj

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While hiking the Himalayas, my new article "Science Diplomacy in Latin America and the Caribbean: The Convergence of Science, Policy and Diplomacy to Solve Global Challenges" was published in AAAS’ Journal Science and Diplomacy.  The article underscores the transformative potential of multilateral collaboration in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region. Check it out here: https://lnkd.in/eKDuES8w. Here are some key takeaways: - LAC, with its rich biodiversity, holds strategic global importance in bioeconomy, renewable energy, and food production. Yet, low investment rates in science, technology, and innovation (STI) hinder the adoption of cutting-edge technologies in the region. - Successful initiatives in LAC necessitate a transdisciplinary, intercultural, and inclusive approach, along with investments in human capital to nurture local expertise. - Despite challenges, science diplomacy could provide an entry point for LAC economies to embrace the green and tech revolutions through accelerated investments in STI ecosystems. This collaborative article, co-authored by Marcella Ohira and Carlos Eduardo Higa Matsumoto, comes on the heels of the groundbreaking AAAS/Royal Society publication that laid the foundation for science diplomacy 15 years ago. In the face of intricate environmental and social issues in Latin America, science diplomacy emerges as a potent instrument for promoting cooperation and evidence-based policy formulation. Let's forge stronger links between science and policy to cultivate a sustainable and prosperous future for Latin America, the Caribbean, and beyond! #ScienceDiplomacy #LatinAmerica #Caribbean #GlobalChallenges #Sustainability

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🔍 The #Poverty rate is a crucial indicator of development in #LatinAmerica and the #Caribbean, and for designing and evaluating public policies. However, official rates are taken from household surveys, which often have limited frequency. #Nowcasting techniques offer an innovative way to forecast poverty, empowering countries with timely and reliable data for well-informed decisions – that affect the lives of millions of people in our region. #CentralAmerica, #Panama and the #Dominican Republic now have a new tool do do just this! 📰 Learn more in our blog post: https://bit.ly/3Uyrcsd #Inequality #Economics #EconomicIndicators

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Brazil’s Integrated Center for Confronting Disinformation and Defending Democracy is “focused on analyzing, monitoring, and responding quickly to disinformation campaigns, especially those aimed at delegitimizing democratic institutions,” Gustavo Borges, a professor of human rights and social media, explains in a new Wilson Center Brazil Institute analysis. https://lnkd.in/eCXGhaD3 The Wilson Center Wilson Center Latin America Program

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Mexico after AMLO and what challenges lay ahead for his successor president -elect Claudia Sheinbaum. And what does it mean for Canda are discussed by Andres Rozental and Solange Marquez. On Sheinbaum, Rozental says "She is considered to be left of López Obrador, our current president...more ideologically positioned at that part of the ideological spectrum. And she is a scientist with climate change and environmental credentials. She was part of the group that won the Nobel Peace Prize some years ago. And she is known to be a fairly pragmatic and strong-willed person...the most important thing that changes with this new administration is the makeup of Mexico's Congress. So both in the lower and in the upper house of Congress, she will have an absolute majority. In the lower house, she'll have a qualified majority, that is a supermajority of two-thirds, which enables reform of Mexico's constitution...She has already announced several priority constitutional amendments, the most important of which is a major reform of the judiciary, where the proposal is that judges starting at the very top with the Supreme Court and going all the way through all the federal judges be elected by popular vote rather than proposed by the executive and ratified by the legislative." Marquez says "the first thing is to know that this new administration is going to be more focused on international issues and will be more interested in creating international alliance. ... Claudia has been more exposed during her professional life to international issues and relations." On Canada-Mexico relations Marquez says "there are a lot of opportunities that we have missed and that I think we should push for something more. The first thing is the economic collaboration....in 2026, we will see the Sunset Clause, the review of the USMCA, CUSMA, TEMEC ... it is an opportunity for both countries to work together because it is, I hope not, but it is likely we will face a Trump administration. So we will see more protectionist administration, more aggressive in the renegotiation....if Mexico and Canada do not start working together now, in order to create a narrative, in order to create proposals for that date for 2026, we will be in a very weak position if we go alone."

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Highly recommend Ellis’ article, "China, the Illiberal Counter-Order, and the Role of Values in the Strategic Response." The piece examines how China’s alliances with illiberal regimes challenge the global rules-based order and underscores the need for Western democracies to uphold their values. From my own perspective, the qualities (or lack thereof) in country leadership—whether it’s a “great man (or woman),” a “compromised or corrupt leader,” or a “naive or weak leader”—can defy even the most rigorous systems dynamics analysis, significantly influencing outcomes in the fight against authoritarianism. read the full article at https://lnkd.in/ee4uYH_B.

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🌍 In #Brazil, the establishment of a 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 was envisioned under the National Policy on Climate Change (PNMC) and analyzed in studies such as the PMR Brasil Project (World Bank, 2020b). However, its implementation requires legislative action, as dictated by Article 170 of the Federal Constitution. Currently, multiple Bills (PLs) are being processed in the Chamber of Deputies and the Federal Senate to create a national Emissions Trading System (ETS), with specific structuring likely to come via presidential decree. 💡 The proposed governance structure for the Brazilian Emissions Trading System (SBCE) includes a higher body comprising members of the National Financial System, a deliberative and appeals body from the Interministerial Committee on Climate Change and Green Growth, and an advisory body with representatives from the government and civil society. The Federal Senate's substitute for Bill 412/2022 proposes a governance system involving an Interministerial Committee on Climate Change and a permanent technical group, with operational rules to be defined by the Executive Branch. 📊 For accurate emission pricing, a robust Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) system must be established. This includes a national database of emission factors verified by a competent body. Bill 412/2022 outlines emission thresholds for regulated entities, with monitoring starting at sources emitting more than 10,000 tons of CO2e and regulation for those emitting over 25,000 tons of CO2e. 📈 Emissions trading will involve a reduction target or an overall carbon budget distributed and sold, with a portion allocated for free and another auctioned. Initially, free allocations based on historical indicators (grandfathering) are recommended, covering 50% of sectors with competitiveness risks. Predictable auction events will provide transparency and stable pricing, crucial for reducing market volatility and fostering investment. 🌱 Participation in auctions could be open to both regulated and non-regulated agents, enhancing market liquidity and price signaling. The use of offsets, initially limited to 20%, may be adjusted based on international practices. Bill 2.148/2015 allows up to 25% of Verified Emission Reductions (VERs) acquisitions, emphasizing the need to protect traditional communities and ensure the integrity of the voluntary market credits. #YouAreNotAlone Dubai International Chamber #BrazilOffice Dubai Chambers‌

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Proud to share my new work on PRC activities in Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador and their combined strategic significance for the US, just published by The Diplomat: https://lnkd.in/dUvTf6Mx.

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Find our NEW ICAIE Research Report authored by our Senior Advisor, Douglas Farah, published by Florida International University, Summer, 19 June 2024. Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) in Latin America are undergoing significant transformations, driven by new alliances with extra-regional actors and supported by ideologically flexible authoritarian governments. These changes pose serious threats to democratic governance, the rule of law, and U.S. strategic interests in the hemisphere. The emergence of new actors, markets, and products is causing fragmentation among traditional groups while consolidating criminal economies through alliances with entities such as the Italian ‘Ndrangheta, Albanian trafficking clans, and Turkish crime syndicates. This International Coalition Against Illicit Economies (ICAIE) / ICAIE Labs authored report examines the evolving transnational criminal ecosystem in Latin America, highlighting the creation of new markets and convergence centers for extra-regional actors. The diversification of criminal activities is leading to a volatile reordering of criminal economies and relationships among TCOs, with long-term strategic implications for the United States and its allies. You can also find the Full Report at: Farah, Douglas, International Coalition Against Illicit Economies (ICAIE), “Fourth Transnational Criminal Wave: New Extra Regional Actors and Shifting Markets Transform Latin America’s Illicit Economies and Transnational Organized Crime Alliances” (2024). Research Publications. 64. https://lnkd.in/ewmt4EhP U.S. Department of State United States Department of Defense U.S. Department of Homeland Security Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Drug Enforcement Administration US Congress #organizedcrime #cartels #LatinAmerica #corruption #illicittrade #threatintelligence #grayzones #drugtrafficking #moneylaundering #counterfeits

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In Latin America “elections are becoming more and more complicated,” Francisco Guerrero, of the Organización de los Estados Americanos, said Thursday at our The Wilson Center dialogue on the state of electoral observation in the region. “It is very easy to lose democracy.” Even so, electoral observation is not required by the Inter-American Democratic Charter and for governments that do permit observation, timely international funding is not always available, Katherine Ellena, of The International Foundation for Electoral Systems, said. That is a challenge, Frank O. Mora, the US ambassador to the OAS, said. After all, free and fair elections might not be the only ingredient for a successful democracy, but without them, “the rest falls apart.” Watch our conversation 👇 https://lnkd.in/enqYgVjx Learn more about our new Wilson Center Latin America Program initiative, Restoring Confidence in Elections in Latin America 👇 https://lnkd.in/ejg52jbX.

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The challenges that the Organization of American States is facing in addressing the current crisis in Venezuela highlight a central challenge to the Inter-American Defense of Democracy Regime—the inability to address threats to democracy until there is a major crisis. The inability to respond before a crisis has been evident in several recent cases of democratic crisis in the region. Efforts to strengthen democracy before full blown crises emerge are necessary for ensuring the defense of democracy. Check out my latest article with Diplomatic Courier: https://lnkd.in/eK47x5r8.

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Last month, the World Bank Accountability Mechanism’s Dispute Resolution Service (AM-DRS), in partnership with the Inter-American Development Bank’s Independent Consultation and Investigation Mechanism (MICI), hosted two capacity-building workshops in South America for civil society organizations (CSOs). Key questions about how complaints can be filed with IAMs, what tools are available to resolve conflict, and how affected communities can be remedied were explored. The sessions were facilitated by Gastón Aín, Dispute Resolution Coordinator at MICI and Marcos Favero, Dispute Resolution Officer at the AM-DRS. Marcos Favero explained, “They contribute to CSOs’ understanding and reflection about their possible roles while supporting communities in the IAM setting.” There is also a need for tools for conflict resolution. “CSOs have not necessarily mastered alternative dispute resolution tools and how effective they can be to create successful solutions to their communities,” Gastón Aín (MICI) added. “These trainings provide hands-on experience, aimed at leveling the playing field for communities and impacted persons supported by CSOs.” #DisputeResolution #SouthAmerica #CivilSociety #Workshop #Partnerships MICI - We work with you to make development better https://lnkd.in/eUkJNNem

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The generation and dissemination of reliable and accessible #data are pivotal for #development, enabling informed decision-making across public and private sectors and fueling research and innovation. Take #Paraguay as an example: the country has advanced its digital capabilities in statistics, achieving a score of 75.8/100 on The World Bank Statistical Performance Index. This reflects its successful integration of meta and microdata within the Instituto Nacional de Estadística-Paraguay’ platform which provides comprehensive access to data from censuses, surveys, and administrative records—essential tools for policymaking and development strategies. Learn more about Paraguay's digital transformation in statistics in this The World Bank blog by Alejandro Medina Giopp and Eliana Rubiano Matulevich: https://bit.ly/3WMZRlW #EndPoverty

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What happens now in #Venezuela? For now, Maduro’s plan appears to be to batten down the hatches and try to ride out the storm. In the past, he has been able to take advantage of outside pressure to rally his supporters and quell dissent within chavismo, claiming Caracas is resisting imperialist interventionism abetted by the forces of domestic “fascism”. This may well work again, at least over the short term. Still, Maduro is likely to emerge from the process weakened, both at home and abroad. His candidacy was not universally popular among chavistas, and his failure to deliver a credible triumph at the polls or lay the basis for economic growth and social peace will have further eroded his standing. His reputation abroad, notably among more sympathetic governments in Latin America, is likely to suffer, and at some stage the country and senior officials might face additional U.S. and EU sanctions. It remains to be seen whether a president who has been unable so far to disprove opposition claims of election victory and who can apparently only promise deeper international isolation and a stagnant economy, will still command respect among the factions that make up the movement. International Crisis Group

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Roadmap for Ethical Artificial Intelligence for Latin America and the Caribbean 2024-2025. Adopted on 4 October 2024 during the Second Ministerial Summit on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence in Latin America and the Caribbean, held in Montevideo, Uruguay.

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https://lnkd.in/dwDegqbG Have you ever wondered how different tales within capitalism shape economic development? In our previous Perspective, "The Chilean Experiment: Shock Therapy and Modern Applications—A Return to Basics," we explored Chile's economic development history as a notable example of Neoclassical Economics. In this latest episode, attention is directed toward a contrasting chronicle within capitalism: an Egalitarian Economic success story and a model of the Developmental State. “South Korea: The Miracle on the Han River & Alternative Futures (1953-1997)” examines South Korea's remarkable developmental success story. This comprehensive examination explores the interplay of cultural factors, social elements, and leadership dynamics that contributed to this economic miracle. 1)     How can South Korea’s model be adapted to address economic disparities globally? 2)     Do you believe cultural, heritage, and social factors are as pivotal as economic policies in a nation's development? 3)     How might the Developmental State Model be applied to other economies? This perspective series was launched as part of the Future of Global, Regional, and National Development Plans (GRAND). Please read the complete analysis by clicking the link below and share your thoughts! Visit our website to read the complete analysis: https://lnkd.in/dwDegqbG #GlobalEconomy #EconomicTheory #EconomicDevelopment #NationalEconomicDevelopment #GlobalEconomicSecurity #EconomicSystems #Capitalism #EgalitarianEconomics #StateDevlopmnetModel #GovernmentRegulation

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