Stephen Schmalhofer

Here’s a question investors are often asked: When evaluating early stage companies, how much time do you spend on due diligence around future exits? It’s not surprising we hear this question a lot. Also not surprising: it’s got a wide range of answers depending on the firm. Some don’t spend much time here at all. Others make it a point to put meaningful time in as part of their process. Our current thinking: take the time to do the work on public market comps. At Alpaca VC, we spend significant time understanding how public market investors will  realistically value a business based on margin profile, product, business model & TAM. In short, we want to know: how will this company be valued at scale when we get taken out? Yes, we can acknowledge that the journey toward exit is a windy road and that there may be pivots along the way, but there are still public market companies that have a business model similar to the early stage company you're evaluating. And you can always look at gross profit multiples if you think the margin profile will change over time. So we still do the work on the comps. Quantitative metrics we look at when making the comparison to public market comps include EBITDA multiple, revenue multiple, Gross Profit multiple or all of the above. As part of this process, it’s also important to factor in the public market company’s year-over-year revenue growth as this will also significantly impact the multiple it trades at. Simple example: if you have two public market companies with similar business models and similar margin profiles, but one's growing 100% year over year, and one's growing 50% year over year, then obviously the DCF (discounted cash flow) analysis is going to spit out a very different valuation for the one that's growing faster. Why this matters: When you take all of that information into account as you evaluate an early stage business, you can begin to create a realistic picture of how this company will be valued in the public markets at exit - or how an acquirer will value the company for an acquisition. Strategic acquirers may, of course, pay a premium, but we won’t underwrite for that. This allows us, for example, to form conviction around valuation based on revenue and gross profit predictions. If we think they can do $100M of revenue five years from now, we use this diligence process to form a thesis about whether the characteristics above (product, margin, business model, etc.) will cause the company to be valued at $200M vs. $500M vs. $1B at exit. Curious how other early stage investors think about underwriting an exit and how much time they’re spending on public market comps even though these companies are in their infancy.

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Vertical LLM Agents with vertical specific business context are the new $1B SaaS opportunity. This is why our laser focus on the $1.3T Insurance industry - built on the foundation of the team’s decades of experience in this industry, with a deep understanding of the nuances of the insurance industry, the technology systems that power this industry, trust from the real humans that work in it, the business processes that create real LAE, Opex and ultimately Combined Ratio impact - allows us to reach real scale with AI Agents and gives me conviction in our purpose.

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Juniper Square recently released their look back at the state of venture in Q2 2024, and the data is interesting. 👉 The liquidity drought continues to stifle fundraising, with $37.4B committed to 255 funds YTD. 👉 In the current climate, established managers are securing 77% of fund value YTD, the highest concentration in the last decade.  👉 Over 63% of capital raised in 2024 so far is in funds of $500M+, the second-highest percentage in the last decade. 👉 Q2 reflects an uptick in US venture deal momentum, with quarterly deal count climbing to the highest level since Q2 2022. 👉 Q2 data shows a third consecutive upward quarter in both exit value and the total number of exits.  👉 Q2 hit a 9-quarter high in total number of exits, and the total exit value recorded was the second-best quarter since Q1 2022. The data shows that the landscape is especially competitive for emerging managers. When it comes to generating returns though, a fresh perspective can help find the most interesting deals. I wrote a bit about this last week, if you’re curious to dig into stats on unicorns at the seed stage, and the funds they’re raising from. You can check out the full report from Juniper Square here: https://lnkd.in/eN6VnY-k #emergingmanagers #stateofvc

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Insightful look into bioplatform strategy, and what it takes to raise a Series A from my partner, Omri Amirav-Drory: https://lnkd.in/dFv7GbF6

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Are you a #VC who needs #finance or #legal advice as fast as possible? Or are you someone who doesn’t already have an advisor working for you, and you need quick answers? This Axios article has introduced me to Decile Base by VC Lab: a free AI-powered chatbot tool that could potentially help VCs save money on third-party accountants or lawyers. To develop this tool, VC reached out to industry experts and converted over a thousand of those conversations into #OpenAI’s API, resulting in a chatbot that can cover a broad range of financial topics, like #tax advice. Decile Base is still in beta, and according to the CEO of VC Lab, Adeo Ressi, the techology is “not always right, but it is shockingly right.” To avoid hallucination, the chatbot will not provide answers to anything that’s outside of its field of knowledge. So, does Decile Base interest you? Have you used it before, and has it given you useful advice/information? I probably wouldn’t let go of your lawyers yet, but this is a handy tool to keep in mind in the future.

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I recently saw this metric from Carta’s 1Q24 VC Fund Report, which is very concerning. DPI... is nowhere to be found in earlier vintages that probably should start showing DPI. Funding early-stage projects is great, but ultimately, these venture dollars need to exit their investments and pay back their limited partners. That’s where the metric Distributed to Paid-In Capital (DPI) comes in. While managing a fund, we get interim measures during the life of the fund (e.g. IRR, MOIC), but ultimately, “you can’t eat IRR.” If you want to build a lasting venture capital organization, you need to start showing DPI for your fund. Keep in mind that this is traditional VC data from Carta, and is not strictly crypto venture. Crypto venture tends to get liquidity earlier (tokens) and things tend to go parabolic sooner (faster, more unicorns) - but I’d wager that the data here is somewhat similar for Crypto VCs… Not as much DPI as there should be from these earlier vintages. Read the full article, as well as a recap of all the crypto fundraising rounds for August, here: https://lnkd.in/g3eVJ-iF

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🌟 Calling all emerging GPs! Walking Ventures is seeking new venture funds to invest in as LPs. With 50+ successful investments and an IRR exceeding 30%, Walking Ventures isn’t just a VC, they’re also LPs in five standout funds that excel in areas outside their own focus. Now, they’re looking to add more LP positions, particularly in first or second funds led by smaller, ambitious firms. Here’s what they’re looking for: 1️⃣ Strong deal flow 2️⃣ Solid internal processes 3️⃣ Operating experience 4️⃣ Relevant network 5️⃣ Sector or geographic expertise Walking Ventures is agnostic on geography, sector, and focused on identifying top-tier emerging funds that deliver exceptional returns. If your fund fits the bill, check out Tim Jackson post for more details on how to connect.

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⛳ Emerging fund managers pulse check. PitchBook tracks over 10,000 funds that are raising money, with 45% being emerging fund managers (defined as firms with less than 3 funds). Despite a dip in available capital—down to 16% from the pre-pandemic 23%—these managers are finding creative ways to stay competitive, like partnering with larger firms. 💼 Joanna Drake (founder turned investor) shared how "wildly different" it is raising a fund versus for a startup. One key datapoint she shared on the fund side was how little feedback you get along the way (and the years you can wait for it). The “long-winded and challenging process to raise capital” inspired Drake and Ben Black to create RAISE Global, a community for emerging fund managers and the “forward-thinking LPs” who back them. (A decade later, several hundred emerging managers with AUM under $200m are on the platform) They've found the newest emerging managers are more diverse and geographically dispersed than Silicon valley, and more were able to crack the ceiling and raise larger $100m funds (although this is still a small % of the market, requiring partnership with larger funds at the late stage). ▶ And not a hugely surprising datapoint: A lot of action is in the sub $49 million range, where roughly 50% of emerging managers are raising. Theresa Sorrentino Hajer, Head of U.S. venture capital research at Cambridge Associates warns that past success isn't actually a strong indicator on it's own to assess emerging managers. We've had a valuation reset. And newer managers with investments during the 2019-2021 "party days", need to build relevant track record and play to their strengths. A lot of emerging managers are specializing (70% who applied for Raise had a thematic focus), and betting on getting in as early as possible in the startup's lifecycle (Raise: 31% at accelerator/ pre-seed stages, and 47% at seed stage). “Emerging managers have to compete on a different dimension,” Nick Moran from New Stack Ventures. You're no longer just dealing with capital. Emerging VC's need to be as innovative and nimble as the startups they invest in, having a unique thesis and insights. They also play a role at the top of the deal-flow funnel: helping larger firms find promising companies, so finding a thesis, sector or philosophy aligned partner at a larger firm is helpful. Onwards! #EmergingManager #Startups #VC

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And my second investment at defy is in 🐶 zeroETL puppies 🐶... I mean PuppyGraph, which is all the beauty of a graph database, none of the data migration or continuous upkeep of a graph database. Sounds like magic? So are puppies 🐶 . Puppygraph is NOT a graph or a database. It is graph analytics engine that answers graph questions on your existing data warehouses, whether that is a Databricks datalake, Google BigQuery or postgres. Compared to SQL, it's faster, handles way more complexity, scales and has almost no upkeep. How did I get to conviction? 1. Tailwinds - 🌊 Lakehouses 🌊 have helped enterprises put all their data in one place, enabling Puppygraph to unlock insights previously unavailable. - 📚 LLMs! 📚AI and RAG cannot easily traverse fragmented data. Puppygraph's Graph RAG unlocks insights with their Knowledge Graph and spoonfeeds to the LLMs. 2. 👯 Team 👯 We have graph experts from Google, LinkedIn, Databricks, Tigergraph, and Instacart who are uniquely able to build this solution. 3. 💸 Customers 💸 . My alma mater Coinbase is a proud user. The feedback from my former colleagues was off the charts! A blockchain is very much a graph database and Puppygraph tracks down fraudulent transactions that go through mixers and helps identify patterns. Huge congrats to Weimo Liu Danfeng Xu Lei Huang Zhenni Wu Gary Hagmueller, defy.vc is proud to be an investor!!

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Excited to share our latest thoughts and findings on the emergence of AI / GenAI in the insurance industry. If you are a founder working in this intersection, please reach out!

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Like many other elements of the venture market - opportunity funds have had a few challenging years. However, I would not be too quick to write them off just yet. Per PitchBook, "The opportunity fund hasn’t been left for dead, and there are signs that VCs may be changing their definition of the term. VC firms have raised at least $3.4 billion for opportunity-style funds this year, more than double last year’s total. Still, it’s a far cry from 2021, when at least 120 opportunity funds hit the market with a cumulative $12.1 billion." This seems less like a obituary on the strategy of opportunity funds, and more like a clearer perspective on funding excesses during the pandemic. The truth is that strategies are always shifting based upon market conditions. Experienced GPs should always be looking for an edge based upon what the market is throwing at them. Valuation levels ebb and flow. However, the idea of backing standout portfolio companies as they mature will always be a good idea. Endeavor Colorado Zeb King Tegan Stanbach Kathryn Dickson #privateequity #venturecapital #innovation #entrepreneurship #investing #innovation #founders #startups https://lnkd.in/grNd8673

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Silicon Valley built venture capital. But New York's new guard is reinventing it. Just reviewed TechCrunch's Top New York VCs Under 30 List. The paradigm is shifting from the traditional Sand Hill Road model to something more diverse and dynamic, marked by: +Founders-turned-investors have hands-on startup experience +A deeper focus on overlooked markets and underserved founders +Cross-pollination between tech and NYC's legacy industries +An emphasis on sustainable growth over growth-at-all-costs As this generation steps into decision-making roles, they’re bringing a fresh take on community-driven investing, alternative funding structures, and an emphasis on long-term value creation. Congratulations to all the honorees. Young talent is reshaping VC but remember – great investors come at every age. (Fun fact: the average GP is 43!) Want to meet the next wave of NYC's venture talent? Follow along as TechCrunch updates their Under 30 list: https://bit.ly/4hiw4ef Thoughts on the approach of younger VCs? Would love to hear your perspective. #VentureCapital #StartupNYC #Innovation #TechNews" Data Sources: TechCrunch and SaaStr PS 🔔 Unlock a better way to raise capital with: 💸https://fundingstack.com/ for VCs and investors

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I’m excited to publicly share something that has been in the works for a few months at the 9point8 Collective. We’ve launched our Virtual Studio! This is a program for early-stage companies that provides the coaching, development and venture-building tools they need to find traction and scale. The program is modeled off of the venture-building processes found inside #VentureStudios, which have delivered 2X IRR and exit 45% faster than traditional #VC-backed #startups over the last 10 years. Some of the secret sauce to this is that studios have found a way to validate strategies early on, de-risk execution, preserve and extend limited runway, and create efficient business models very fast. We at 9point8 are seasoned studio builders and are on a mission to bring this value to founding teams as they navigate their startup journeys. What we’ve done with the Virtual Studio is distill these key processes and techniques, add in our own expertise and best practices, and package them into a program which meets start-ups where they are. We are now opening up our Summer 2024 Cohort, slated to begin in July. Space is limited, so I’m sharing the opportunity with my network before we fill the cohort. Here are the details: -It’s a 3-month program which takes the founder through the key phases of venture-building and de-risking (refining target market, product-market fit, economics and financials, planning, and fundraising). -Founders can expect to achieve greater focus, improved operations and increased marketability to customers and investors. -The end results include collaboratively-drafted operational plans, commercial / investment pitch decks, and elevated management practices within the founding team. These draft off frameworks from 9point8's proprietary venture-building process: Targets Over Everything. -It’s built for founders facing (or approaching) a critical inflection point, where fresh perspectives and strategic management levers are critical. These might include fundraising preparation, new product launch, market expansion, and post-MVP scaling efforts. Why did we build this program? Because building a new company is really hard. 90(!) percent of startups fail, and even moderate risk reduction can create a huge lift to survival rate and eventual returns. The studio model is proven to drive greater venture success; our virtual program is extending that success to more and more teams. The program is highly collaborative and hands-on, so we only take on a few companies at a time. This is a great opportunity for founders who are looking to level-up their abilities when it comes to unlocking traction, growth, and an express lane to superior returns. If interested, please reach out immediately as we expect the program to be fully enrolled very soon! Blair Merlino Evan Allen Neal Ghosh

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The (Healthcare) Ground Beneath Our Feet… This year it is likely that over $10 billion will be invested in the digital health sector – a robust amount, no doubt, but inconsequential when compared to the amount of capital tied up in healthcare real estate assets, which is estimated to be $1.2 trillion by Jones Lang Lasalle. Of that amount, approximately $790 billion is in the hospital sector while the remaining $490 billion is in medical office assets. It is estimated that there are 48.6k facilities with 3.4 billion square feet of healthcare real estate, 42% of which are owned by REITs and another 33% held by other private investment vehicles. Much of the digital health investment is meant to make the physical healthcare infrastructure more productive: greater operating efficiencies, greater patient throughput, more relevant personalized care models with better outcomes. As the healthcare system is being pushed to be more distributed to lower cost sites of care, accelerated now by the rapid proliferation of automation and AI capabilities, the potential impact on healthcare infrastructure assets will be profound. Thoughts on what that might look like... https://lnkd.in/eTfAdUbS #digitalhealth Flare Capital Partners

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As we dive into 2024, the Series A fundraising landscape is becoming increasingly daunting. Investment standards are soaring, and fewer startups are making the cut. Series A investors are finding many seed stage companies too premature. The median valuation jump from seed to Series A skyrocketed from $19.5 million in Q1 2022 to $28.7 million in Q1 2024. Investors now demand stronger revenue performance, targeting $2 million to $3 million in ARR, up from $1 million to $2 million. Alarmingly, only 12% of Q1 2022 seed startups secured Series A funding within two years, down from 31.8% in Q1 2020. #venture #earlystage #seedtoseriesa #seed #seriesa #inspireglobalventures https://lnkd.in/gW4bkcNy

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What do you do as a founder, when you're no longer VC-backable, but are too small for private equity? Join us on May 23rd for a fireside talk with Andrew Chang, where we will explore the venturePE financing model, the gap in the funding markets that we address and how back companies that need that extra push and operating muscle. Lauren Bonner Jonathan Jetmundsen MBM Capital #fundraising #venturePE

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🚀 Calling all fundraising Boston Metro B2B tech startups! 🚀 Are you currently fundraising and ready to pitch in front of Boston's top angel investors and early-stage fund managers? On November 19th, Venture Lane | Startup Hub is hosting our exclusive Pitch Night 👉 - a rare opportunity for Boston Metro’s early-stage B2B tech founders to present their investor pitch live and connect directly with key decision-makers in the local investment community. We’re on a mission to showcase the next wave of standout B2B tech companies from Boston. If you're ready to elevate your fundraising efforts and make meaningful connections, don't miss this opportunity. ⏰ Apply by October 22nd to secure your spot! 📲 Find the application link in the comments below. #B2BTech #Startups #Fundraising #BostonStartups #PitchNight #VentureLaneStudio

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