Scott Carpenter

This is the latest installment of our Year of Descending Dangerously series, on interenational central banks' attempts to retreat from high interest rates. Just in time for the FOMC, and written with Richard Annerquaye Abbey and Carolyn Silverman Hope it's of interest. #interestrates #inflation #centralbanks

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Goldman Updates Election Baskets With Harris Campaign Underway Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s Thematic Baskets team updated its Democratic and Republican policies baskets as President Joe Biden exited the presidential campaign, the Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has seen record flows of fundraising and as the election odds have gotten closer to 50-50 chance of either party wins the race.  ** Renewables now make up 40% of the Democratic policy outperformers basket; income-inequality stocks (like low-income housing) now make up 10% of the basket ** Health care and infrastructure-spending stocks each make up 25% of the basket ** The bank added managed care and cryptocurrency-exposed stocks to the Republican policy outperformers basket, representing 6% and 4% of the basket, respectively ** Weighting of deregulation beneficiaries was increased to 30% ** Energy and commodity-exposed stocks represent 30% of the basket, stocks tied to domestication (like border construction) and domestic security make up 20% and 10%, respectively

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Check out some of the major themes Finadium will be covering at our upcoming Rates & Repo conference: up first - everything you should know about where collateral optimization is at. (And it's a free article!)

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Brevan Howard's $12 billion flagship fund is down 2.4% this year. 🏢 Despite gaining 0.77% in May, Brevan Howard's Master Fund is falling behind the industry average. 🏢 Hedge funds have averaged 5% gains year-to-date, according to data from research firm HFR. 🏢 Macro hedge funds have beaten equity and emerging market funds to post average gains of 6.5% this year. #hedgefunds https://lnkd.in/eBNMyhMX

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Diverging prospects for interest rates in the U.S. and eurozone have widened the gap between U.S. Treasury yields and those of German government bonds, a trend analysts expect to continue as data point to a strong U.S. economy against a tepid eurozone recovery. (Full story behind paywall) https://lnkd.in/eUH8iQBR #fed #ecb #spread #governmentbond #yield #interestrates

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Fascinating theory on why an inverted yield curve in the US Treasury bond market - when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates - is no longer such a reliable recession indicator. Complete with references to Top Gun and Homo Economicus. A true nerd-fest!

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Most Asian currencies started the week on a positive note, with the South Korean won and the Taiwan dollar leading gains, while investors in regional stock markets maintained a cautious stance for more cues on the global rates outlook. Data on U.S. personal consumption expenditures on Friday will be critical for investors, which will give them an idea of whether the Federal Reserve will be able to lower borrowing costs. More deets in today's report with valuable inputs from Gary Ng. Read?

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U.S. interest rates have worldwide repercussions. Today, soft-as-expected inflation data bolstered expectations of rate cuts sooner rather than later. My piece for WSJ on PCE inflation and its implications for the Fed.

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This is the latest Points of Return, on the returning belief that the Republicans can win a clean sweep and what that would imply for markets. (Bad things for bond yields). #investment #markets #predictionmarkets

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Marshall Group has hired Goldman Sachs to explore options 🎶 The deal could include a sale of the entire business, or a stake sale with the Marshall family remaining shareholders in the company. Details on valuation expectation and timeline of process now live on Octus: https://lnkd.in/ef7fANee

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Guggenheim Partners is talking to lenders, including private credit firms, to gauge their interest in financing the potential $6.6 billion buyout of US department store chain Macy’s Inc. by investment firms Arkhouse Management Co. and Brigade Capital Management. The funding could include at least $1.4 billion of debt, spread over multiple transactions tied to different types of collateral, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Guggenheim is seeking a $650 million loan at the operating company level, said the people, asking not to be identified as the details are private. That financing would be a type of debt known as “first in, last out,” and would be in addition to a large asset-based loan from a bank. Meanwhile, Guggenheim is also sounding out investors for debt backed by the department store-operator’s real estate, which could total more than $700 million to be financed through the commercial mortgage-backed securities market, according to the people. Another slice of debt tied to the company’s properties could be added on top of that, said the people. w/ Reshmi Basu https://lnkd.in/dfRunsHV

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In this week's Merryn Talks Money, Merryn Somerset Webb talks to the excellent Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab, who has a valuable reminder that prognosticating and noodling on the Big Picture is all very well, but successful investing isn't about crystal balls. Instead it all hinges on getting the basics - asset allocation, diversification, and rebalancing - right. So have fun debating the ins and outs of the US election by all means, but when it comes to your portfolio, you can put it to one side. Which is nice. https://lnkd.in/eRrrVNm4

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shadow banks, synthetic leverage, creditor-on-creditor violence, private debt PIK (cue foreboding background music...) check out the latest Credit Edge podcast from Bloomberg Intelligence with Ana Arsov from Moody's Ratings and David Havens https://lnkd.in/efSJZKu5 Bloomberg Bloomberg News

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NEW Trader TV - J.P. Morgan: Trader and dealer relationships are evolving to meet buy-side execution needs, particularly at a time when there is growing market uncertainty. Scott W. at JP Morgan spoke to Trader TV about the increasing adoption of electronification in FICC trading and how margin pressures are shaping buy-side demands and the way they interact with their dealers. Wacker looks at the critical importance of “trust” and price transparency in these partnerships and also unpacks the growing use of new technologies like artificial intelligence and where they are playing a role on the trading desk. #trading #FICC #fixedincome #AI #pricetransparency #execution

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NVIDIA’s latest quarterly results are out and Citywire Elite Companies has caught up with analysts at several leading wealth management firms to see what they think the numbers say about key aspects of the long-term investment case: 💪 Competitive lead 🎢 Demand/AI spending cycle 🛠 Supply challenges We’ve also used Citywire’s unique data on the holdings of the world’s best portfolio managers to measure smart-money enthusiasm for this AI wonder stock. With thanks to Ben Barringer CFA, Gregor Davidson, Quilter Cheviot, James Ford, CFA, Lucy Cotter, Charles Stanley ,Daniel Smith, CFA, Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management (UK, Channel Islands and Isle of Man), Lucy Clark

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From my Taking Stock today: the higher technology stocks go, the less tolerant one nook of Wall Street gets to any signs of weakness in the group. Commodity trading advisors, or CTAs, that use trend-following strategies boosted exposure in Nasdaq 100 futures to such stretched levels that the so-called stop-loss triggers have become very tight, according to Bank of America Corp. From where things stand, CTAs can start unwinding their positions if the gauge’s futures drop 2.8% or more. A month ago, the pain threshold hovered near 4%.

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