Ryan Schreiber

Focus on your core competency There has been much said & even more written about RXO, Inc.'s acquisition of Coyote Logistics. My good friend, Grace Sharkey 🚛🤖💙 wrote of the deal over the weekend. For those in the business, this deal comes as little surprise. It's no secret that UPS has struggled to make sense of the volatile world of the brokerage industry. When it's good, it's great, but when it's bad... it's really bad. And lately, it's been really bad. While leaders are tasked with unlocking new revenue, not all that glitters is gold. And oftentimes those same leaders make the case that an acquisition creates the magical formulae of 1 +1 = 3. So let's do the math: UPS bought Coyote Logistics $1.8 billion in 2015. RXO, Inc. will buy Coyote Logistics from UPS for $1.025 billion sometime in 2024. 9 years & nearly $1 billion (that's billion with a 'B') in value gone. This is not an aberration. Brokering freight is increasingly commoditized & the margins of 2015 will likely not materialize for some time. I believe that RXO, Inc. got a great deal. I believe Coyote Logistics is a great company. The deal makes sense, but the landscape is changing. 2H of 2024 is going to be very, very interesting. https://lnkd.in/gt9MGusT

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Freight fraud is a hot topic right now for carriers and brokers. 2 Dawgs, 1 Pod. will be back at 2cst on Friday to talk everything fraud and highway related with Michael Caney. Is it a good idea to be sharing stories on the bad guys on social media or is that helping them get better? Should we be relying on the fmsca to fix things? There is a lot of different possible topics on the idea of fraud, I will say from everyone I talk to everyone loves Highway and they are becoming a household name in that space. I know it’s a common question that comes up when I talk to potential agents, and they are happy to hear we utlize highway. They have definitely figured something out in this space imo and excited to talk about it. #fraud #freight #logistics #trucking

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Thinking About Starting a Dispatching Business? Before you dive in, there are 5 key things you MUST know to set yourself up for success! Whether you're new to the industry or looking to level up, my Dispatching Course covers everything you need to build a profitable business from day one. ✅ Ready to avoid costly mistakes? ✅ Want insider tips from an expert? Don’t wait! Enroll in my course today and start your journey to success. Link in bio! #EntrepreneurLife #DispatchingBusiness #FreightDispatch #BusinessGrowth #TruckingIndustry #StartYourOwnBusiness #DispatchTraining #Logistics #SmallBusinessOwner #TruckingSuccess

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As I continue to see articles advancing a narrative that tariffs will increase domestic for-hire trucking demand by boosting domestic manufacturing (e.g., FreightWaves, https://lnkd.in/gkrbyQny), I want to set the record straight that U.S. manufacturing output actually fell in 2019. Below I've produced a plot of manufacturing output excluding hi-tech products like computers (which don't contribute much freight and inflate total industrial figures due to how inflation adjusted output is measured [compare inflation adjusted output https://lnkd.in/gerNRsJM versus value of shipments https://lnkd.in/g3djyBib and you will see the difference]). Permanent link https://lnkd.in/gkUBVZrY. Thoughts: •I've circled 2019 where we saw a sharp decline in industrial production. This was widespread across industries such as machinery (https://lnkd.in/gecu_Tg4), fabricated metals (https://lnkd.in/gpcbd_TV), primary metals (https://lnkd.in/gAWwYRGP), wood products (https://lnkd.in/ge2g8gjb), and even furniture (https://lnkd.in/gKvtxyZv). •Many of the sectors I cited above as having declining output in 2019 were the exact goods protected by the 2018-2019 tariffs (e.g., Chinese furniture per The Wall Street Journal https://lnkd.in/gnMpmpCT). •Notice two periods of strong growth in manufacturing: 1996-2000 and then 2003 - 2007. Those periods were AFTER trade liberalization via NAFTA (1994) and China (2000). Implication: while it's important to present all possible arguments for and against imposing widespread tariffs, facts matter. No one can look at these data for manufacturing output and say that the 2018-2019 tariffs have increased U.S. manufacturing activity. #supplychain #manufacturing #shipsandshipping #economics #freight #supplychainmanagement

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Despite claims that the freight recession is over, those of you who follow the public less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers note that most LTL outfits have been reporting declining year-over-year volumes for October and November (e.g., https://lnkd.in/gJ9Cf-VF). Continued soft volumes in the LTL space stem mostly from ongoing weakness in the industrial economy (e.g., manufacturing). In that regard, I wanted to share one industrial production series, focusing specifically on production of goods made by machine shops, turned products, and screws/nuts/bolts (https://lnkd.in/gnYJjMD8) that does a good job of capturing inflections in freight market cycles. One chart. Thoughts: •These industrial production data show seasonally adjusted physical unit output for this 4-digit industry. Crucially, the BEA estimates only 15% of the consumption of goods belonging to this industry are imported, suggesting an ongoing important role for domestic manufacturing (accounting for ~$70 billion in shipments each year: https://lnkd.in/g4tp2fr8). •As can be seen, during normal freight cycles, upticks of production in this sector correspond quite closely to the onset of bull market pricing cycles in late 2013/early 2014 and mid-2017. Equally, downturns in production correspond to bearish conditions. •The fact production didn’t start dropping till late Q3 2023 (about a year after the freight recession started) can be easily explained by the rampant raw material and labor shortages in 2021 and 2022 creating very large increases in order backlogs (https://lnkd.in/gB4iMH2j) that supported production even after new orders had cooled down. Implication: production by machine shops in the USA merits close monitoring as we move into 2025. An uptick of production would be another indicator that we are exiting the current limbo of flat freight volumes. As it appears this series has finally found its nadir, it will likely take a few more months for production to rise significantly (e.g., late Q1 2025). #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #manufacturing 

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In an attempt to keep a fair and balanced opinion about the freight agent model, let's discuss some of the cons. Choosing the right company to partner with, you've moved your book over at least once, presumably when you became an agent, moving your book too many times can expedite your customer churn. As an agent, you're more than likely financially responsible for bad debt, whether it's through a reserve withholding account or just a reduction in your commission, there are some risks agent carry. Transferring your book can be an issue, some of the larger agent model companies will want to see your customer list upfront in order to determine who you can bring with you. If they don't sign and NDA before you provide that list, RUN! Cradle-to-Grave is not for everyone, if you've never done it before, I don't recommend learning in through an agent program. How/when you get paid can be an issue. Some companies pay out commission once a month and only on PAID invoices, that means you could be without cash flow for a few months. Minimum revenue requirements, if you're not doing $80-100K in revenue a month, you're probably not a good candidate for an agent role. Agent life is dope (that's my professional opinion) but it's not for everyone. Max Freightlines, LLC. is always interviewing potential agents, if you would like to learn more about what we offer, or just to learn about the agent model in general, I'm always happy to talk ship.

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One partially controllable cost for over-the-road dry van truckload carriers is truck driver turnover. While I’ve published research documenting that turnover rates at large TL carriers are strongly procyclical with industry employment dynamics (e.g., when industry-level payrolls expand, we see driver turnover increase because it’s easier for drivers to hope from one carrier to another, coupled with industry expansion bringing more quit-prone new drivers into the fold), many turnover events are caused by carriers’ actions. One key set of individuals in this discussion are dispatchers. Multiple academic studies have documented persistent differences in driver turnover rates across dispatchers. I bring this up because dispatcher-driver relationships require management. Successful relationships are characterized by reciprocity and understanding, whereas unhealthy ones tend to be characterized by conflict. From a carrier standpoint, each good driver who voluntarily quits generates several thousand dollars of cost for a carrier in terms of recruiting a replacement driver, onboarding that driver, and lost revenues from having unseated trucks (not all inclusive, just providing a flavor). Consequently, small investments to reduce driver turnover can quickly pay for themselves. I bring this up because I’ve come to believe that a product created by my wife, Paula Panagouleas Miller and her team at Karmascore, while originally designed in the context of interpersonal relationships (https://lnkd.in/gghHYcG5), may have immense application to carriers as a tool for drivers and dispatchers to better manage their frequent exchanges. Some example applications: •A dispatcher notices by scoring interactions with that a driver that this individual appears increasingly “checked out.” This is a red flag that a turnover event may occur soon, providing a chance for intervention (especially if this is a good driver). •If a group of drivers is all noticing that they are having poor relations with a dispatcher, this provides an actionable signal to management that action may be taken. Implication: though conceived in a different context, I have to give my wife’s company a shout out for creating a product that may help carriers better manage the dispatcher-driver interface. A premium plan allowing for the tracking of unlimited relationships costs just $60 annually, which would make for an incredible ROI if just one turnover event was averted. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload #transportation

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#Interesting and very #DESPERATE times ... if some carriers have embraced the concept of a "Loss Leader" just to keep the doors open. The concept of ... "Yea, we lose a $1 on every sale, but we'll make it up in volume" has #NEVER worked in retail and it definitely won't work here in trucking where it's #NOT $1 per load, but hundreds of dollars per load. I get it that there are some carriers that are just barely staying alive and hoping and praying the #CashFlow will keep them alive to fight another day. But losing money on loads, is #NEVER a good idea, especially when you are struggling. I personally know of one such TL carrier with over 400 trucks out of the Northwest that may not survive the month. I hope and pray that they do, for the sake of the drivers and employees. But when #Leadership is too proud to admit their mistakes, and unwilling to accept the recommendations of those wanting and willing to assist to help the carrier survive ... and even provide those services on a Pro Bono basis (for some that may not know the term, that's for #No #Charge) ... there's not much that friends or associates can do. Anyhow, enough about that ... read the article and I'm sure you'll walk away scratching your head. https://lnkd.in/gsvQDjCb

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For a new broker, one of the easiest hacks to book more freight is just learning how to effectively use your TMS's internal load boards. You want to make it as easy as possible to identify freight that's going to be a good fit for your carriers: - What's moving today? - What's moving in the next few days? - What's coming out of xzy location? - Etc. If you're just scrolling haphazardly through your open board, hoping to find the loads you want, you're doing it wrong. #freight #3pl #transportation

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Interesting topic. I can't see how you can require brokers to reveal their margins. If a trucker or trucking company doesn't like dealing with brokers, they don't have to - they just have to hire salespeople. Secondly, brokers currently have incentive to invest in people and technology to find the best service at the best price, we don't want to take that incentive away. Lastly, should private trucking companies or owner operators also have to break out the margin on each load? #trucking #3pl #warehousing #drayage #intermodal

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There's no shying away from the fact that today’s freight market is tough. Freight rates have dropped significantly, while nearly every expense in motor carriers’ operations has sharply climbed. That’s especially true for driver compensation — which has grown upwards of 20% over the last four years.    Even though driver pay growth has slowed of late, the increase in compensation costs to carriers remains.    This means fleets have a lot to balance right now in their negotiations with shippers: You have to bid competitively to earn the business, but you also have to factor in the costs of driver pay in the markets where you hire and retain drivers, as well as the increase in other expenses, so you can run profitably.    To make all of that work, communication with your shippers is key.    Our team at NTI has assembled a list of five strategies your fleet can use to work with shippers to articulate your fleet’s costs, particularly those related to driver compensation, so you can effectively incorporate the cost of driver pay into contracts and agree to a freight rate that works for you and your customers.    🔗 You can access our roadmap here: https://bit.ly/46IXO7e

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There is a lot of excitement in the trucking community that the current freight recession is over (heavily influenced by the articles from FreightWaves). While I’ve publicly said I expect a substantial increase in dry van truckload spot rates next year, it’s important to remember that a significant rebound of freight volumes will take some time to materialize (this isn’t an overnight thing). This can be seen in the most recent quarterly version of the trucking ton-mile index (now that September’s data is complete). One chart. Thoughts: •Q3 2024 came it 0.1% above Q2 2024; I feel good at this stage declaring Q2 2024 the bottom of the current freight recession, which began in late Q2 to early q3 2022. •While we saw very high levels of containerized imports, which appeared in sectors such as electrical goods wholesaling posting record inflation adjusted sales, it’s critical to remember that many freight-centric sectors of U.S. manufacturing continue to perform poorly relative to peak freight demand in the first half of 2022. These include: Wood products: https://lnkd.in/gNmwNRd5   Paper: https://lnkd.in/gYDt3kcK Plastic & rubber: https://lnkd.in/g8ya9dAw Nonmetallic mineral products: https://lnkd.in/gJEH2Gh5 Machinery: https://lnkd.in/gy2NrYza •It will take time for manufacturing activity in these industries to rebound. As I’ve said repeatedly, late Q1 to early Q2 2025 is when I truly expect demand conditions to get strong enough for spot rates to show the type of sustained increase needed to pressure contract rates. Implication: I get carriers are excited that brighter days are ahead in 2025. However, we need to be reasonable and understand it takes time for the manufacturing ecosystem to see sustained demand increases. Moreover, I have severe concerns about 2026, as I expect folks are going to be in for a very nasty inflation surprise… #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #shipsandshipping #freight #trucking

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💰 Do you have a Fantasy Budget and Overpaying for Freight? When shipping off the Spot Market how do you know if you’re overpaying for freight when your transportation budget is based off 5 email quotes from Freight Brokers? Because you went with the lowest quote from brokers using the same or similar quoting software doesn't make it competitive. 1. Your company is siloed and not working together to ensure your supply chain is collaborating with each other effectively. 2. Your team is unaware of the company's strategy or common goals. 3. You haven't reviewed your providers since they were setup years ago. 4. Benchmarking is used in other departments or sectors with vendors and forgotten in the transportation department. Start auditing your transportation providers more frequently to know where you should be standing instead of continuing to clean your shoes! #supplychain #consulting #freight #transportation #freight #spotmarket #pricing

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Now that we are halfway through July, I wanted to look at where the dry van truckload spot market was at. Using data from DAT Freight & Analytics, I’ve calculated the dry van spot market cycle indictor as broker buy contract rates less dry van TL spot rates divided by the average of the two series. One chart below. Thoughts: •Historically, when this ratio falls below 10%, we tend to see a bull market pricing cycle begin, which is picked up well the Bureau of Labor Statistics primary service producer price index for general freight trucking, long-distance, truckload (https://lnkd.in/gUXXNHrd). Conversely, anytime we see the series move above 15%, we enter a bear market pricing cycle. Key dates for bull cycles labeled in black, bear cycles in red. These dates mirror swings in observed contract & spot rates picked up by BLS. •The bad news for carriers is that July’s reading of 15.8% is well away from the 10% threshold. As such, there aren’t signs of the market being ready to turn. •For the market to turn, we need more freight demand. Unfortunately, as I’ve been noting frequently, demand conditions just aren’t great now. For example, Cass Shipments, which tracks the trucking ton-mile index quite closely, fell in June to the lowest level since the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic (https://lnkd.in/gAZb34hZ).  As I’ll share next week, machinery manufacturing and wholesaling is especially weak. Implication: I continue to see few signs that the dry van truckload sector will enter a bull market pricing cycle in 2024. It increasingly looks like any capacity tightening felt in June was just a return of seasonality. Continued weakness in pricing and freight demand reinforces my emphasis on why domestic manufacturing activity must be front and center in discussions about freight demand, with less attention given to retail sales. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #economics #markets

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Is it true? Could the "Great Freight Recession" really be OVER? 🪦 According to FreightWaves CEO, Craig Fuller (and my favorite industry newsletter, FreightCaviar), this just might be the END of this challenging era. Fuller's prediction is backed by data and trends around an increased demand for freight services coupled with a decrease in carrier capacity, leading to higher rates for trucking companies. These trends will then cycle to create a market where carriers gain leverage and offer higher rates (aka "carrier revenge") getting us back to a more stable market and increased demand. But, is it really over? 🤷🏻‍♀️ I'm hopeful and am manifesting every ounce of optimism to make this recovery a reality, but...I'm going to wait to hear from my network before I pop open the bubbly. 🥂🍾 If you're a SHIPPER, BROKER or SERVICE PROVIDER, I'd love to hear your thoughts and POV here.... Is it time to celebrate yet? #freightrecession #logisticshiring #greatrecession

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With the election settled, I’ve received many inquiries regarding how I anticipate dry van truckload rates will move in 2025. To help answer that, below I’ve charted year-over-year percent change in DAT’s dry van TL spot rate (red) and the BLS’s primary service PPI for general freight trucking, long-distance, truckload (NAICS 484121). Thoughts: •The most profound change that has occurred with these data is that the PPI is now more strongly correlated (albeit with a lag) with spot rates. A decade ago, a 10% year-over-year increase in spot rates would net a ~3% year-over-year increase in the PPI. That relationship appears to have doubled since COVID-19 hit (e.g., a 10% increase in spot rates now gets you a 6% increase in the PPI). •If we assume the shift in the relationship since COVID-19 isn’t due to a unique one-time event but is an underlying product of an environment with much greater information availability, then it would be reasonable to assume this magnitude of relationship will continue. •The question then: how much will spot rates increase? I’ve been on record saying I expect the next bull market cycle to look like 2014 in that I don’t see an increase in trucking ton-miles in 2025 that would be the same pace we saw in late 2017 and early 2018 (not to mention no ELD mandate at work). With that, I’m willing to predict spot rates increase ~15-20% year-over-year by Q3/Q4 2025. That would imply an increase in the BLS PPI by 9-12% year-over-year (but with a lag). That would be the same magnitude of increase in the PPI we saw in 2018. Implication: My best guess basing on looking at underlying demand and supply conditions is dry van spot rates rise 15-20% in 2025 from where they are in 2024 (with those figures being reached in Q3 and Q4 2025). That implies the BLS’s primary service PPI for dry van trucking will rise 9-12% year-over-year, with those gains lagging the spot market changes. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload

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I just lowered a client's parcel spend by over $330,000... By identifying hidden areas of opportunity within their rate agreement, I optimized their cost structure without the need for carrier switches or operational changes. Now, they simply just pay less and ship the exact same way as before. #LogisticsOptimization #CostSavings #StrategicNegotiation #ParcelManagement #3PL #DTC

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Headlines about layoffs rightly cause much concern and consternation in the trucking industry (e.g., https://lnkd.in/g9useTDD). However, it is critical to understand that this tells only half the story because a substantial percentage of trucking layoffs occur because a firm loses a key customer account. What that means is that the firm which won the business will often expand (which tends not to be reported). Below I wanted to document just how prevalent such reallocation of jobs is in trucking using population-level data from administrative records for all employer firms in truck transportation via the Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) program. Data from https://lnkd.in/gVr6BbRW for all carriers. Thoughts: •The chart shows three series. The job creation rate is the jobs added by the subset of carriers that expanded or started operations in year t relative to t-1 divided by the average employment across all carriers in years t and t-1. Analogously, the job destruction rate is defined as the jobs lost due to carriers that downsized or exited in year t relative to t-1 divided by the average employment across all carriers in years t and t-1. The Net Rate of Job Change is the difference between the series and represents the percent change in employment for a given year. Data cover 1978 – 2021, with each data point representing change for that year relative to the prior year (e.g., 1978’s data point compares March 1978 data with March 1977 data). •What I want to emphasize: even when the net rate of job change is relatively low (e.g., 4.3% for March 2019 vs March 2018), this hides that there is a much higher rate of jobs being reallocated across carriers. For example, that 4.3% March 2019 figure hides a 14.9% job creation rate and a 10.6% job destruction rate. •Consequently, what economists call excessive job reallocation in 2019 was 21.2%, which represents the sum of job creation and destruction rates (14.9 + 10.6) less the absolute value of the net change in jobs (4.3), ergo 25.5 – 4.3 = 21.2. That is a lot of reshuffling of jobs across firms. Implication: Trucking jobs are reshuffled across carriers all the time. Focusing only on layoffs misses that firms which win new contracts are likely to expand. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload #logistics #transportation

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