Richard Gertler

POST #5 October 22,2024 Attending the annual meeting of the Aluminum Association in Washington, DC USA Associate Member-Executive Committee Meeting The Aluminum Association #aluminum This is the best event this meeting Tri-Arrows Aluminum, Inc. Henry Godenier Rolled aluminum sheet products business in good . Aluminum Scrap supply is tight. UBC recycling rate is still chronically low at 45%. Reynolds Consumer Products business is good Norsk Hydro demand is soft. Selling products with carbon footprint information Southwire Company great time to be the electrical industry, especially aluminum. Interesting tends - Google is investing in nuclear energy may be restarting stalled three-mile power plants in Pennsylvania. Rio Tinto investment in low carbon accounting ELYSIS™ is being commercialized expected to achieve 3 kWh/ib. Using both technology in Primary and scrap based Secondary production Arconic strong and stable in automotive business. Aerospace challenges Vista Metals locations in CA and GA and now in KY. Hard alloys cast houses 2xxx and 7xxx. Aerospace market. Hopefully Boeing contract is signed soon. Real Alloy processing dross. Overall business is stable. Bullish on the market. Trying to keep aluminum products away from landfills EV is not coming as strong. Constellium aluminum needs to catch up with plastics research to recycle at the molecular levels. We need to stop landfilling valuable aluminum

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What does Trump's re-election mean for US and global steel markets? Fastmarkets steel analytics team looked at the intricate effects of Trump's #steeltariffs on global trade and US manufacturing. The takeaways include: ✅Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on US imports of Chinese-origin steel may have limited impact due to China’s small share in US steel imports ✅US manufacturers face high costs from domestic steel but compete with cheaper imports ✅Future tariffs may focus on finished or intermediate products, raising costs for manufacturers and consumers and more! Read the full article and view interactive charts on US steel imports, US HRC steel prices and US steel capacity here: https://fmrkts.com/416rKci #FastmarketsMetals #Election2024 #steelprices

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Cleveland-Cliffs' No6 BF at Cleveland Works to be placed on hot idle Fastmarkets By Rijuta Day Cleveland-Cliffs will place the No6 blast furnace (BF) at its flat-rolled steel mill Cleveland, Ohio, on hot idle in October, sources told Fastmarkets on Thursday September 12. “I just asked Cleveland-Cliffs, and [the company] said it’s indefinite at this time,” a source with knowledge of the matter said. “But it’s a hot idle, so I’d imagine three to six months is their target.” A second market source said they had heard the same, and that the BF's union workers had been made aware of the move. The second source also noted that the idling could last as long as six months. In a hot idle, the BF remains heated and can be brought back into operation more quickly. The No6 BF in Cleveland has an annual steelmaking capacity of 1.37 million tonnes, or 3,765 tonnes per day, according to the Association for Iron & Steel Technology’s 2021 directory of iron and steel plants. It is part of Cleveland Works, an integrated steelmaking facility that produces hot-rolled, cold-rolled and hot-dipped galvanized sheet and semi-finished slabs. The No6 BF was idled in the spring of 2020 by ArcelorMittal at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic and was restarted in January 2021, after Cleveland-Cliffs acquired it. Steel producers typically take maintenance outages at their plants during autumn months, but some buyers are skeptical whether the yearly downtime will help prop up the price of hot-rolled coil for the remainder of the year. “Not expecting any planned outages to affect pricing, as orders are still weak,” a steel distributor told Fastmarkets on Thursday. Subscribers can access pricing data in this story at this link: https://fmrkts.com/3zgIuSR Flat-rolled steel demand continues to stall in the US, according to Fastmarkets analyst Felix Bello. “Drivers and indicators of construction, industrial and manufacturing activity continue to decline, albeit at a slower pace,” Bello said in a report on September 11. No response to Fastmarkets’ queries were received from Cleveland-Cliffs or the United Steelworkers (USW) union at the time of publication. Christopher Kavanagh in New York has contributed to this article. #ClevelandCliffs #ClevelandWorks #HRC #Cleveland #blastfurnace #BFNo6 #steel #steelindustry #commoditytrading

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US Steel’s Big River 2 mini-mill to ship coil in Q4; company’s operating earnings down 45% Fastmarkets By Robert England November 1, 2024 US Steel reported in its third quarter earnings release on Thursday October 31 that its Big River 2 mini-mill in Osceola, Arkansas, will start shipping coil to customers this quarter. Big River 2 fired up its first electric-arc furnace (EAF) at the facility on October 24 and produced its first coil on October 25. “We are very pleased to announce that we achieved the first coil at Big River 2 [in October],” US Steel president and chief operating officer David B. Burritt said in the earnings release. Lower steel prices pushed US Steel’s earnings lower in the quarter. In the flat-rolled segment, the average realized price was $993 per net ton in the quarter, down by 4.15% year on year from $1,036 per net ton. In the mini-mill segment, the average realized price was $800 per net ton, down by 11% from $901 per net ton in the same comparison. Adjusted operating earnings, which take out one-time charges such as capital investments, fell by 45% in the third quarter to $319 million, down from $578 million in the third quarter of 2023. Even so, US Steel earnings beat the analyst consensus forecast of $292 million and came in at the high end of the company’s prior guidance of $275-325 million. Adjusted net earnings, which include all charges, fell by 60% in the third quarter to $140 million, down from $350 million year on year. The mini-mill segment “is guided to see both volumes and realized pricing increases as Big River 2 ramps up,” Jefferies analysts Christopher LaFemina and Albert Realini said in a note published on Thursday. The company’s better-than-expected performance “demonstrated resilience in our business model despite the weaker average selling prices experienced across our operating segments,” Burritt said. “The North American flat-rolled segment continued to benefit from a strong commercial strategy that leveraged a diverse product mix and a purposeful increase in contracted volumes across the end markets we serve,” he added. Net sales declined by 13% to $3.85 billion, down from $4.4 billion in the third quarter of 2023. But in the flat-rolled segment, net sales fell by 53% to $106 million, down year on year from $225 million. The mini-mill segment lost $28 million in the third quarter due to start-up costs, compared with a profit of $42 million a year earlier. But adjusted for one-time start-up costs, the mini-mill segment delivered operating earnings margins of 11%. Subscribers can read the full story at https://fmrkts.com/48EdMQP #steel #USS #USSteel #X #BigRiver #BigRiver2 #DavidBurritt #HRC #hotrolledcoil #minimill #Osceola #flatrolledsheet

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US Steel’s Big River 2 mini-mill to ship coil in Q4; company’s operating earnings down 45% Fastmarkets By Robert England November 1, 2024 US Steel reported in its third quarter earnings release on Thursday October 31 that its Big River 2 mini-mill in Osceola, Arkansas, will start shipping coil to customers this quarter. Big River 2 fired up its first electric-arc furnace (EAF) at the facility on October 24 and produced its first finished coil on October 31, US Steel told Fastmarkets. “We are very pleased to announce that we achieved the first coil at Big River 2 [in October],” US Steel president and chief operating officer David B. Burritt said in the earnings release. Lower steel prices pushed US Steel’s earnings lower in the quarter. In the flat-rolled segment, the average realized price was $993 per net ton in the quarter, down by 4.15% year on year from $1,036 per net ton. In the mini-mill segment, the average realized price was $800 per net ton, down by 11% from $901 per net ton in the same comparison. Adjusted operating earnings, which take out one-time charges such as capital investments, fell by 45% in the third quarter to $319 million, down from $578 million in the third quarter of 2023. Even so, US Steel earnings beat the analyst consensus forecast of $292 million and came in at the high end of the company’s prior guidance of $275-325 million. Adjusted net earnings, which include all charges, fell by 60% in the third quarter to $140 million, down from $350 million year on year. The mini-mill segment “is guided to see both volumes and realized pricing increases as Big River 2 ramps up,” Jefferies analysts Christopher LaFemina and Albert Realini said in a note published on Thursday. The company’s better-than-expected performance “demonstrated resilience in our business model despite the weaker average selling prices experienced across our operating segments,” Burritt said. “The North American flat-rolled segment continued to benefit from a strong commercial strategy that leveraged a diverse product mix and a purposeful increase in contracted volumes across the end markets we serve,” he added. Net sales declined by 13% to $3.85 billion, down from $4.4 billion in the third quarter of 2023. But in the flat-rolled segment, net sales fell by 53% to $106 million, down year on year from $225 million. (The 2nd paragraph had stated that the Big River 2 mini-mill produced its first coil on October 25 when this report was first published. This has been updated with new information provided by US Steel; the mini-mill produced its first finished coil on October 31.) Subscribers can read the full story at this link: https://fmrkts.com/4fA7cgm #steel #USS #USSteel #earnings #DavidBurritt

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US Steel’s Big River 2 mini-mill to ship coil in Q4; company’s operating earnings down 45% By Robert England November 1, 2024 US Steel reported in its third quarter earnings release on Thursday October 31 that its Big River 2 mini-mill in Osceola, Arkansas, will start shipping coil to customers this quarter. Big River 2 fired up its first electric-arc furnace (EAF) at the facility on October 24 and produced its first coil on October 25. “We are very pleased to announce that we achieved the first coil at Big River 2 [in October],” US Steel president and chief operating officer David B. Burritt said in the earnings release. Lower steel prices pushed US Steel’s earnings lower in the quarter. In the flat-rolled segment, the average realized price was $993 per net ton in the quarter, down by 4.15% year on year from $1,036 per net ton. In the mini-mill segment, the average realized price was $800 per net ton, down by 11% from $901 per net ton in the same comparison. Adjusted operating earnings, which take out one-time charges such as capital investments, fell by 45% in the third quarter to $319 million, down from $578 million in the third quarter of 2023. Even so, US Steel earnings beat the analyst consensus forecast of $292 million and came in at the high end of the company’s prior guidance of $275-325 million. Adjusted net earnings, which include all charges, fell by 60% in the third quarter to $140 million, down from $350 million year on year. The mini-mill segment “is guided to see both volumes and realized pricing increases as Big River 2 ramps up,” Jefferies analysts Christopher LaFemina and Albert Realini said in a note published on Thursday. The company’s better-than-expected performance “demonstrated resilience in our business model despite the weaker average selling prices experienced across our operating segments,” Burritt said. “The North American flat-rolled segment continued to benefit from a strong commercial strategy that leveraged a diverse product mix and a purposeful increase in contracted volumes across the end markets we serve,” he added. Net sales declined by 13% to $3.85 billion, down from $4.4 billion in the third quarter of 2023. Subscribers can read more here: https://fmrkts.com/4f7UMMR #steel #USS #USSteel #BigRiver #BigRiver2 #Osceola #Arkansas #electrcarcfurnace #minimill #coil #steelcoil But in the flat-rolled segment, net sales fell by 53% to $106 million, down year on year from $225 million.

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The significant increase in operating income from Steel Dynamics' recycling operations in Q2, despite lower pricing, underscores the strong demand for ferrous scrap from North American steel producers. This demand helped offset price pressures, contributing to the $32.1 million revenue in Q2, up from $22.6 million in Q1. Although overall earnings declined year-over-year, the company remains optimistic about stabilized ferrous scrap prices and the strategic advantage provided by their expansive recycling platform. SDI's ongoing investments in aluminum and recycling capabilities aim to enhance future profitability and address supply deficits in the market. Read the full article with a free trial here: https://lnkd.in/ge684SgP #recycledmetal #recycledmaterial #scrap #ferrous #aluminum Stephanie Ritenbaugh

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We shall see how the North American #aluminum market will respond with the regional #premiums reflecting the reality of things going on there. Reviewing the annual reports of the local producers including the reports of even the most prominent companies in the region shows producing aluminum with a minimum acceptable #margin is challenging there and not as competitive as expected unless their policy makers resort to those UNFAIR #subsidies as well, as they have already done with such #tariffs.

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I want to take a minute to thank the Metal recyclers and processors around the world who have enrolled their companies in Scrap University. More importantly than pitching a product or service is taking the time out to make sure your clients are satisfied and thank them. Scrap University provides measurable ROI tutorial value to the metal recycling industry. I have yet to hear from any organization or individual they did not learn, benefit, and acquired a lifetime resource to further their career. Recently, I want to thank my metal recycling customers for all of the Buyer’s enrollments. Mostly, we see ScrapU used for new hires and fast track cross training. The metal recycling business is very competitive and no one wants to leave money on the table. Not all Buyers are comfortable talking about, identifying, and going after metals they are not real familiar with. This results in splitting business with competitors and leaving your door open for a competitor to undercut you in order to have all of the customers business. The solution costs are far less than can be lost in one day if a buyer isn’t dialed in 100%. If you’re interested in program options, prices, or have questions feel free to email me at [email protected]

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Cleveland-Cliffs duels Nucor with own spot HRC price US flat-rolled producer Cleveland-Cliffs plans to publish its own hot-rolled coil spot price, on the heels of Nucor’s decision earlier this month. Cleveland-Cliffs’ hot-rolled price will be released monthly alongside the opening of the company’s hot-rolled order book, as opposed to Nucor’s weekly price. Cliffs reserves the right to “update this price more frequently as market conditions necessitate,” the company said in a release on Friday April 26. “We encourage market transparency and have been pleased to see other market participants be more open with their pricing,” Lourenco Goncalves, president and chief executive officer, said. “As the largest producer of flat-rolled steel in North America, we felt it necessary to do the same to make sure our customers had the most timely and reliable pricing information.” The market has still been mulling over the implications of Nucor’s set weekly pricing. One service center source told Fastmarkets this week that Nucor’s price — most recently $835 per short ton ($41.75 per hundredweight) as of Monday April 22 — is more reflective of “excess stock and certain items they want to move.” “Most people are not paying attention to the Nucor spot number, considering you must read the fine print,” he said, likening it to a “blue light special.” Goncalves referenced the price on Cleveland-Cliffs’ quarterly earnings call on Tuesday April 23. “We live in a world of pricing competition,” Goncalves said. “At the end of the day, that is still playing out in the marketplace, and we are still working through the consequences of that event.” He added that the company was doing deals for hot-rolled at $900 per ton ($45 per cwt). As of press time on April 26, Cliffs’ inaugural monthly spot price had not been published. “I’m telling you, we’re selling for $900 per ton,” he said on the call. “But is that easy right now to get there? No. It was easier before things that happened during the latter part of the quarter. It’s an always-changing environment. We will have to wait and see what's going to happen.” Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index, fob mill US Midwest was calculated at $42.34 per cwt ($846.80 per ton) on Thursday April 25, a one-day drop of 0.28% but up by 1.10% from the price a week earlier. Likewise, Fastmarkets’ weekly’ steel hot-rolled coil index, fob mill US South was most recently calculated at $41.01 per cwt ($820.20 per ton) on Wednesday April 24, down by 0.36% on the week. In the wider market, sources fear that this current period of stagnation could lead to price declines. One buyer in the auto sphere predicted prices in the “mid-to-low $700s” by July, and a mill source said this week that there is no “backstop” for price erosion. Fastmarkets Fastmarkets Metals and Mining Cleveland-Cliffs Nucor Corporation

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Chinese companies currently dominate global steel production. Japanese company Nippon Steel has argued that its potential acquisition of U.S. Steel, a century-old icon of American industry, would create a firm more equipped to compete with Chinese companies. President Joe Biden is reportedly poised to block Nippon Steel’s takeover of U.S. Steel, raising questions about the administration’s economic and foreign policy priorities. Here's a brief explainer on why Biden could block the Nippon-U.S. Steel deal: https://on.cfr.org/3zbWKwa

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Metal Market Overview — November 9, 2024 Many of you have probably seen similar headlines recently, and I also mentioned this not long ago. The European Steel Market Under Pressure High energy costs and rising scrap prices are forcing steel producers across Europe to cut margins and switch to night shifts to reduce expenses. This downturn has spread across the entire region, with Germany and Southern Europe seeing a sharp drop in demand, temporary production stoppages, and plant closures. Closures of Service and Distribution Centers According to sources, a large number of service centers across Europe are facing severe financial difficulties and are on the verge of closure. For the European steel industry, this is the most challenging period since the 2009 financial crisis. Key Price Levels Reached as Expected As I predicted earlier, we were bound to reach certain price levels in the hot-rolled coil (HRC) market, and now we’re there: • U.S. Market: $560–620 • European Market: $540–580 • Asian Market: $460-500 Prices have reached these levels, just as anticipated. We’re seeing early signs of a market turnaround, potentially signaling the start of a new growth cycle. But the question remains: does everyone see it? I believe many don’t. As often happens, fear clouds judgment — and I can relate. I went through a similar situation in 2008–2009, with warehouses stocked with 90,000 tons of hot-rolled coils and pipes. Fear was real, especially when banks restricted credit lines and demanded immediate liquidation of inventories. From my experience, I can say: this isn’t the end; it’s an opportunity. Despite current challenges, the market will find its balance and open up new prospects. Outlook for the Near Future Now it’s November, the U.S. elections are over, and it’s time to act. In December, I anticipate a steady price rebound. Steelmakers are already pushing us in this direction. They are creating the right narrative around critical issues — rising energy costs, particularly with winter approaching, reduced capacities, and the closure of environmentally unsustainable plants. On a governmental level, there’s talk of new infrastructure projects, which will receive our support and lay the groundwork for market recovery. In my view, by August 2025, we may see hot-rolled coil prices return to the $1200–1320 range. However, before this upward shift, the market may dip once more, shaking out any lingering doubt about the recovery. That’s not uncommon. And most importantly: wishing everyone peace and goodwill In Ukraine, we know the value of peace and sincerely wish it for everyone. #squareblank #slabs #bloom #wire #scrap #lead #hotrolledcoil #hotrolledsheet #profilepipes #purchasing  #trade #warehousing #logistics #metallurgy #business #supplychainmanagement #privateinvestor #investmentfunds #businessinvestments #america #europe #asia

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The worst ever crisis more than that of global financial crisis of 2008 and that of 2015 has engulfed China and its down turn in real estate and weaker factory activities with sluggish domestic demand and surplus production & increased inventory creates an alaraming situation that China is bound to dump at a multi year low price its surplus goods in other countries including INDIA. Hence India must take prevention to safeguard domestic industries. Investors are more attracted to India's growing technology sector,incredible performance of fastest digitalisation, a robust indian capital market that alone enjoys 19% share vis a vis china's shrinking 22%. India set to become world third largest economy by 2027 and marching ahead towards VIKSIT BHARAT by 2047 on 100 years of independence at $57 trillion economy by maintaining a continued 8% minimum growth and ensuring rupee value not depreciate and keeping inflation at lowest as estimated by RBI as their target. Hence Govt must curb imports by all means and maximize our manufacturing, services, agriculture and technology contributions with increased productivity.

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