Paul Chapman

A second Trump administration Part 2: A deep dive into energy and commodities. Check out our comprehensive analysis from across Wood Mackenzie on the impact of the US election. It covers both P&R, upstream, refining and chemicals, commodities such as LNG, and emerging technologies. A takeaway: it is important to distinguish between short and long-term impacts of the election - especially for key areas such as utility-solar, offshore wind, and SMR nuclear. https://lnkd.in/gDtJiErk

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Permian Basin: Center of E&P Activity #oil #gas #USA #energy #growth #boom #strategic #consolidation #texas #newmexico #production #expansion #services #ofs https://lnkd.in/gpUmGWNQ

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PERMIAN BASIN: ANOTHER VIEW.....SLOWER GROWTH IN PRODUCTION BUT MORE WELLS? #PERMIAN #OIL #GAS #PRODUCTION #EFFICIENCY #DRILLING #SENSITIVITY #GLOBALTREND #ENERGY #OUTLOOK #WELLPRODUCTION https://lnkd.in/gbZY2eMs

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You know that I believe we need the #oilandgas industry to energize the world while decarbonizing it, and my end goal is to have oil and gas leaders seated at the most important #energy and #climate policy tables. What a joy it has been to help lead the Real Decarbonization Consortium with Naomi Boness, Ph.D. and be able to create forums for the best and brightest to think, explore, and push one another to achieve our decarbonization goals!

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I'm thrilled to be moderating a panel at Stanford University on Wednesday on the topic of 'Emissions Reduction and Upstream Capital Deployment for Small to Midsize Operators' during the Stanford Natural Gas Initiative's Annual Symposium. Joined by Arjun Murti and Keila Aires Diamond, we'll explore how capital can be used to accelerate emissions reductions in various sizes of natural gas operators and discuss the driving factors behind financial institution's investment thesis. Excited for insightful discussions under the California sun. #emissionsreductions #capitaldeployment #carbonmanagement #naturalgas #competitiveness

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Permian Basin Gas Production Pushes Limits – Infrastructure Expansion Needed! The #PermianBasin’s rapid #gas production is putting existing infrastructure to the test. Despite fluctuating natural gas prices, demand for expanded capacity continues to rise. Nigel Gorbold of East Daley Analytics shared insights at Hart Energy's A&D Strategies conference, noting that even new pipelines like the Matterhorn Express, which reached 1.5 Bcf/d within a month, are filling up quickly. With AI, LNG exports, and #energy-hungry data centers set to drive additional demand—up to 7.4 Bcf/d by 2030—the energy sector needs more infrastructure to keep pace. Upcoming projects, like the Blackcomb and Trident #pipelines, aim to address this gap. However, the challenge remains complex, as regions like Appalachia face regulatory hurdles, slowing down progress. 💬 What do you think is the biggest barrier to achieving energy market balance in the U.S.? Read more here: https://lnkd.in/d5sW3_tE Rextag's Energy DataLink: One app to meet your energy research needs Try it for FREE: https://lnkd.in/dKNs58He

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The natural gas market remains tightly balanced between supply and demand, continuing to drive higher prices despite unseasonably warm temperatures across much of the U.S., which would typically exert downward pressure at this time of year. According to a report from NatGasWeather.com, the focus is shifting to how U.S. weather patterns may develop in December. The firm notes that if colder-than-normal conditions materialize, current supply surpluses could quickly turn into deficits. However, they also point out that Decembers in the U.S. have been consistently warmer than average in recent years. As of morning trading, natural gas futures have risen by 2.7%.

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ED&F Man is in discussions for a takeover by Hartree Partners, highlighting the trend of energy traders diversifying into broader markets. Hartree's interest follows its acquisition of a significant portion of ED&F Man's debt, exceeding $1 billion. This potential acquisition underscores the changing dynamics of commodity trading, with established players like ED&F Man attracting interest from newer entrants such as energy trading firms. Notably, other energy trading giants like Trafigura, Vitol, Gunvor Group Ltd and Mercuria have also expanded beyond their tradition energy markets. These expansions can be attributed to several factors, including the high profits from recent energy trading, the interconnectedness of various commodity markets, and the potential of the energy transition which may require expertise in new commodities. #energy #acquisition #commodities Follow Kepler Search and www.keplersearch.com for #commoditiesjobs, #tradingjobs, #energyjobs and news in #oilandgas, #metals, #agriculture #commodities, #trading and more. https://lnkd.in/gCask8ts

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Fortune magazine writes, fund managers are betting that nuclear energy, an area traditionally off-bounds for investors with environmental mandates, is set to make a comeback. “In the past, we were more on the very cautious side and exclusionary approach,” said Chris Berkouwer, lead manager for Robeco’s Net Zero 2050 Climate Equities fund. But it’s now clear that nuclear is “an indispensable part” of eliminating GHG emissions, he said. Proponents note that running a nuclear power reactor is emissions free. And they can generate enormous levels of electricity using just small quantities of fuel, making them more efficient than other energy sources. It’s one of the reasons nuclear is the largest source of clean power in the US, France and South Korea. In the EU, heavy lobbying from France helped get nuclear into the bloc’s so-called green taxonomy back in 2022. At BlackRock Investment Institute, nuclear is regarded as part of the energy mix needed to power the vast data centers being built by the technology industry. Robert Lancastle, a portfolio manager at JO Hambro, says that without nuclear power, it’s unlikely the world will have enough energy to support the continued growth of artificial intelligence. Lancastle has held shares of uranium miner Cameco Corporation since the first quarter of 2022. The stock is up about 80% this year. Nuclear-themed Constellation Energy is up more than 50% this year. BWX Technologies is up more than 20%. NuScale Power shares have soared more than 150%. Berkouwer sees potential investment opportunities in uranium miners, equipment suppliers, companies building the so-called small modular reactors, and electric utilities where nuclear is an important part of the energy mix. But costs remain an issue, with nuclear plants often requiring billions of dollars in investments and generally taking longer to build than renewable energy facilities. That’s given nuclear “a bad reputation,” said Tal Lomnitzer, senior investment manager on the global sustainable equity team at Janus Henderson Investors. Even so, costs “can be addressed by small modular reactors,” Lomnitzer said. “Public perception can hopefully improve with assurances from governments and others.” Our Take: It's probably too much to ask that the smart money behind trillions invested in energy would have recognized, prior to now, that nuclear is a superior solution fir reducing emissions. Of course, even if they did, the politics of nuclear have been so badly misguided for so long, why would investors have bothered with such a low probability bet? Either way, this is good news. ⚛️ ♻️ 👀 #nuclear #energytransition #energy

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CALPERS - EXXON - what do you think? (reported in P&I today) CalPERS, America's largest public pension fund, will vote against all directors on Exxon Mobil’s board, including Darren Woods, executive chair and CEO, at the company's shareholders meeting, said CalPERS CEO Marcie Frost at a conference May 20. The $485.8 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System, Sacramento, will vote May 29 against each of the directors on Exxon Mobil’s board for allowing “Woods to pursue a reckless and destructive effort” by suing two shareholder groups that want the company to take more action on climate change, according to a May 20 open letter to the pension fund's participants explaining the decision by Frost and Theresa Taylor, CalPERS' board president. “For almost four decades, CalPERS has used its investments in major corporations to hold shareholder-elected directors and top officials accountable” to help ensure long-term, sustainable investment returns for the pension fund, Frost and Taylor said in the open letter. “Now, decades of shareholder rights are under threat from a lawsuit filed by the leaders of a powerful U.S. corporation,” the letter said. “If ExxonMobil is successful in silencing voices and upending the rules of shareholder democracy, what other subjects will soon be off-limits?” CalPERS officials did not take this step lightly, Frost and Taylor said. "We helped elect many of the directors we are now voting against,” they said. “But we have to act.” #shareholder #shareholderrights #climate #esg #exxon #calpers

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Mexico's Growing Reliance on U.S. Natural Gas: A Critical Challenge for Energy Security ⚡️🇲🇽 Mexico is increasingly dependent on U.S. natural gas, importing over 70% of our demand. 📉 Our domestic production has dropped by nearly 50% since 2010, while demand has doubled, making us heavily reliant on U.S. imports.This growing dependency poses significant risks. ❄️ Supply disruptions, like the 2021 Winter Storm Uri, could lead to severe power outages, and political tensions might further threaten our energy security. As we move forward, it's essential to explore solutions like expanding domestic shale gas production, diversifying our energy mix with renewables, and increasing gas storage capacity. While these steps may not be cheaper, they are vital for securing our energy future. 🔗 Read more here: https://lnkd.in/eURSsDTM #EnergySecurity #NaturalGas #MexicoEnergy #RenewableEnergy #Policy

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From Opinion: The oil-and-gas sector in Europe has significantly underperformed. European companies should consider moving their headquarters to the U.S. and shifting their main stock listings to a U.S. exchange, writes Paul M. Dabbar.

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Looking forward to being on a panel next week with David H., Sarah Kiriluk, CFA, Robert Parker, and Robert Sternthal at the S&P Global Commodity Insights Financing US Power Conference at the Marriott Marquis in Houston. We’ll be discussing how to navigate the complex landscape of tax equity in US power finance (including trends in tax equity for renewable energy projects, the impact of the tax credit transferability market, and much more). #ey #energy

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Crude prices have been falling pretty fast, weighed down by weaker demand and a surfeit of light, sweet crude in the West. Listen to this week's Platts Oil Markets podcast to hear more, with valuable insight from Sam Angell, George Delaney, and Joey Daly.

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Permian Basin: New Challenges for Oil Producers Production Slowdown: - EIA revises down 2024 Permian production forecasts - Now expecting 6.1% growth in 2024, 3.6% in 2025 (down from 7.8% and 3.9%) Associated Gas Issues: - Growing associated gas production causing problems - Waha hub prices were negative for 6 months until September - 1/3 of E&P firms curtailed production, 1/3 delayed drilling/completions Gas-to-Oil Ratio (GOR) Rising: - Permian GOR increased from ~2 to over 3.5 since 2012 - GOR typically rises during well life, impacting overall production mix Drilling Location Quality: - Less than 40% of remaining Midland basin sites offer sub-$60/bl breakeven - Weighted-average breakeven for undrilled Midland wells: $74/bl Breakeven Price Trends: - Dallas Fed survey: Midland basin breakevens range $40-85/bl, average $62/bl - 5-year increase in average breakeven: from $46/bl to $62/bl Infrastructure Development: - New Matterhorn Express pipeline (2.5bn cf/d capacity) alleviating some gas constraints These challenges highlight the evolving dynamics in the Permian, with implications for production growth, profitability, and investment strategies in the region. https://lnkd.in/e4c6m2vt #PermianBasin #Oil&Gas #EnergyMarkets #Argus #CL

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#US_pipeline US pipeline operator ONEOK Inc. agreed to buy a Permian Basin rival and a controlling stake in another company in two transactions valued at a combined $5.9 billion. ONEOK will acquire Global Infrastructure Partners’ entire interest in EnLink Midstream LLC and also buy GIP’s equity interests in Medallion Midstream, the largest closely held crude gathering and transportation system in the Permian, it said in a statement late Wednesday. The move expands ONEOK’s presence in the most prolific US oil and gas basin. It’s the latest in a spate of deals in the industry as private equity firms offload assets to corporate buyers. Operators of oil and gas assets are looking to scale up as cash-flush fossil fuel companies consolidate and look to refresh their drilling inventory. New York-based Global Infrastructure Partners is a private equity firm specializing in energy, transportation, water and waste management. ONEOK shares gained 0.8% in New York. EnLink surged 11%. https://lnkd.in/dCFiT6nS

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A rational approach to oil strategy must encompass reducing GHG emissions while supporting economic growth in developing nations worldwide. Merely advocating for decreased oil production falls short, as this article insightfully explains: https://lnkd.in/gQ-wgNCS. In today's world, it is crucial to thoughtfully consider the preservation of our environment and economies on a global scale. Share your thoughts in the comments below.

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"BP is seeking buyers for a stake in its U.S. natural gas pipeline network, four people with knowledge of the matter said. The British energy company could raise up to $3 billion from the sale, two of the people said, with one of them adding that BP may sell up to a 49% stake in the business."

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Importance of Skilled Labor to Critical Minerals Establishing a robust domestic midstream for critical minerals is important, and something I'm often asked about. Recently, I published a paper on the topic for the Bipartisan Policy Center (linked below). A key factor to overcome, and one of the most cited by project owners, is the significant recruiting and retaining challenges due to severe labor shortages and intense competition for skilled workers. The U.S. industrial manufacturing sector, which had a shortfall of over 600,000 workers in 2023, is expected to see this gap widen to 2.1 million positions by 2030. This shortage directly impacts critical minerals projects that rely on similar skill sets, exacerbating the pressure on the industry. Critical minerals projects compete with semiconductor and battery manufacturing companies for skilled positions such as machinists, electricians, maintenance staff, equipment operators, and construction workers. Additionally, there is a notable shortage of individuals qualified for specialized roles essential for operational efficiency and quality control, including chemists, quality control analysts, and laboratory technicians. The talent pool is further strained by a 39% decline in mining engineering graduates since 2016, limiting the availability of essential professionals like mining engineers, metallurgists, and geologists. The construction sector, vital for building and maintaining critical minerals processing facilities, is also experiencing a severe labor shortage, with a deficit of 650,000 workers as of July 2023. This shortage impacts infrastructure development in regions where midstream operations are necessary, often requiring significant relocation efforts. To address these challenges, strategic investments in training programs, relocation incentives, supportive immigration policies, and advanced manufacturing technologies are essential. By establishing industry-specific training initiatives and partnering with educational institutions, the sector can develop a pipeline of skilled labor but it will take time a forward-thinking. We must grow the potential pool of interested professionals, with efforts like Project MFG. The topic of skilled labor is one I intend to evaluate deeper to consider what must be done to establish these projects successfully while growing the quality of life for American workers. Link to my recent report: https://lnkd.in/gSy7WSau

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