Nathan "Tyler" Ansell

Our presidential election model suggests that the economy is a tailwind for Harris—real incomes are rising, mortgage rates are down from last year, and gas prices are low. Consumer confidence is so-so, but it’s not enough to ding her. Even so, our model suggests the race is a toss up, and it wouldn’t take much for the result to flip to Trump if he can drive relatively high turnout. For more details, see below for my conversation with USA Today. However, momentum has clearly favored Trump recently. In September, Harris had a slight lead in betting markets but there has been a notable shift since the beginning of October, as the implied market probability of Trump winning now exceeds 60%. Also, for the first time since Biden dropped out of the race in late July, Trump has gained a lead in the RCP national polling average—he is up only 0.1-point but this is remarkable given that he has trailed Harris nationally by at least 2-points since she became the Democratic nominee. More importantly, RCP shows Trump leading in all of the top battleground states and is up by an average of 0.9-point. All of this to say, the election race remains a toss up by most available metrics (except betting markets), but the race is not the same as it was a month ago. https://lnkd.in/eWTGYCfU

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Here's something I wrote for I-Connect007, which is focused on the PCB and EMS sectors. We get questions from a lot of business owners who have already eliminated PE firms as buyers due to stereotypes. The truth is, if a seller eliminates any class of buyer, it may drive down valuation, terms, and ease of completing a deal.

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October Capital Markets Review from Atlanta Consulting Group: Markets saw a pullback in October after five months of equity gains and a strong year for fixed income. 📈 - The S&P 500 dipped -0.91% but remains up +20.97% YTD. - Small Caps fell -1.44%, continuing to trail larger caps. - Financials rose +2.69% with strong bank earnings, while Health Care, Materials, and Real Estate lagged over -3%. - Growth outpaced Value: Russell 1000 Growth at -0.33% vs. Value at -1.10%. - MSCI EAFE declined -5.44%, still up +6.84% YTD; Emerging Markets fell -4.45% due to a stronger USD. - Rising yields affected fixed income, with the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index down -2.48%. Learn more here: https://loom.ly/GF3OEL8 #MarketReview #CapitalMarkets #InvestmentInsights #AtlantaConsultingGroup

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In the first #LPLMarketSignals of the month, #LPLResearch weighs in on what September has historically meant for the S&P 500, implications of the federal deficit, and more. Tune in as Jeff Buchbinder and Lawrence Gillum, CFA discuss it all → https://bit.ly/3XhYMTx

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Just released, this paper from L. Randall Wray and Eric Lin looks at the relationship between government budget deficits and the growth rate of GDP by exploring the nuanced approach given by Modern Money Theory. Read now: https://lnkd.in/eQ2JsNJG

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After a worse than expected employment report last Friday, the projections for interest rate changes have shifted dramatically in just one day. Markets are now projecting a reasonably high probability for a 50 basis point rate cut in September. What's even more interesting is the possibility of another 75 basis point rate cut in November and that we'll end the year at a target rate of 4%. Still 44 days to go until the next FOMC meeting so there are many scenarios that could potentially change these projections. While the slow down in labor markets is a signal of potential economic headwinds it may also revive animal spirits again in equity markets. #economy #interestrates #fixedincome #markets #stocks

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1. NYC cap rates are low because of cap gains https://lnkd.in/eF7g-GVD 2. but there aren't long-run cap gains in NYC https://lnkd.in/eh6PprUS 🤔

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I was asked this week: Why do I invest in commercial multi-family assets in TX when I live in NH? Here are some stats that should explain things well: Dallas/ Ft Worth (just one of the 4 major MSAs we focus on in TX) had 441,000 jobs added over the last 12 months (per BLS stats). They have a 3.4% unemployment rate. There are currently just shy of 60,000 units under construction in DFW with a total unit count of approx 650,000 multifamily units. DFW is projected to be the largest city in the USA over the next 75 years. Yes - that means bigger than LA and NYC. Crazy! NH has a population of about 1 million people. NH has about 25,000 apartments total. DFW builds more than double that in one year. NH added about 10,000 jobs over the last 12 months. DFW adds that much about every week and a half. TX is simply where the population growth, job growth and opportunities are much better as a multifamily investor- if you have the right people, systems and processes. NH is beautiful, clean, safe and a great place to raise a family though! :)

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We are extremely excited to announce that senior analyst and partner, Devin Holland, has been named to Pensions & Investments' list of Influential Women in Institutional Investing in the inaugural 2024 class of Rising Stars! Click the link below to learn more about Devin and the recognition she received. #smallcapinvesting #womeninfinance #institutionalinvesting #smallcapgrowth #investments #microcapgrowth

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McDonald’s is seeing a deceleration in its comparable sales. Senior Analyst Matthew Goodman, CFA provided insights into MCD trends to Barron's: “This suggests the company hasn’t been as aggressive with pricing as it was in 2023, says Matthew Goodman, a senior analyst at the firm. ‘We think the company is trying to be mindful about maintaining its value offering,’ he said.” See more details here: https://bit.ly/49VYdTL Our team covers 15+ names in the Restaurant & Grocers sector, with additional insights into over 100 brands in our data solutions. To learn more about these companies, and to explore our #MCD research, reach out to us: [email protected]. #mcdonalds #fastfood #QSR #consumer #restaurants #investmentresearch #altdata

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August Capital Markets Review – Atlanta Consulting Group 📊 August brought market volatility but ended on a positive note with strong gains in the S&P 500 and Real Estate sectors. While Small Caps pulled back, Large Cap Value stocks continued to outpace Large Cap Growth. International markets also saw growth, with the MSCI EAFE Index posting solid gains. Click here to learn more: https://loom.ly/ZjUIaDc #CapitalMarketsReview #InvestmentUpdate #ACGInsights

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PE News Weekly 📈 📍 HPS Investment Partners, LLC is exploring a potential $10 billion IPO, with discussions underway with investors. The private credit manager, spun out of JPMorgan in 2016, confidentially filed IPO paperwork last year and could go public soon. HPS currently manages $117 billion in assets. 📍 PARK SQUARE CAPITAL, LLP has raised €3.4 billion for its latest direct-lending fund, European Loan Partners II, which will support mid-market businesses across Europe. The fund includes a joint venture with Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. Private credit competition is intensifying as interest rates shift, but Park Square remains optimistic. 📍 Private equity firms HIG and CapVest are bidding for AAH Pharmaceuticals, the UK’s largest pharmacy wholesaler, valued at £900 million. The auction, overseen by BNP Paribas, could conclude by year-end. AAH has seen a 60% rise in active customer accounts under Aurelius' ownership. #privateequity #penews #privateequitynews #rawselection

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A peek inside the latest Center for Inflation Research (CfIR) newsletter 👀: 🎙 Announcement of incoming president & CEO, Beth M. Hammack 🧾 The 2023 CfIR annual report 💻 Director of CfIR discusses inflation and its measurement in a recent webinar 📅 Events, indicators and data, research, and more Read the full roundup and subscribe to receive the next issue, offering all our latest inflation-related research, right to your inbox: https://clefed.org/4f8jqO6 #CenterForInflationResearch #FederalReserve #Inflation #InflationResearch #InflationData

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The Federal Reserve's recent report noted an interesting trend in commercial real estate (CRE) loan delinquencies: "At the large banks, the delinquency rate for office loans increased to 11.0 percent in the second quarter of 2024. The deterioration in CRE loans has so far been mostly concentrated at large banks. However, the delinquency rate for CRE loans held by smaller banks also increased during the first half of 2024. Smaller banks generally hold a higher share of their assets in CRE loans compared to large banks." This raises an important question: why has the rise in delinquency rates been more gradual at smaller banks compared to large banks? One possible explanation is that many small and regional banks have CRE exposure in markets less impacted by the remote work trend. In this case, the risk to smaller banks may not be as concerning. However, there’s also the argument that the effects at smaller banks could be delayed. Since borrowers at small banks tend to have closer, more direct relationships with their lenders, they may have stronger incentive to work harder to avoid delinquency. As a result, delinquencies may take longer to materialize, but once they do, they could quickly move to default. Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see if the slower rise in delinquencies at smaller banks masks emerging risks, particularly given their higher concentration in CRE. #Banking #CRE #Delinquencies #RiskManagement #CommercialRealEstate #Finance #FederalReserve https://lnkd.in/esKbdGJm

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