Milburn Miranda

Go watch the show we recorded at the Broker Carrier Summit Safety panel!

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#Interesting and very #DESPERATE times ... if some carriers have embraced the concept of a "Loss Leader" just to keep the doors open. The concept of ... "Yea, we lose a $1 on every sale, but we'll make it up in volume" has #NEVER worked in retail and it definitely won't work here in trucking where it's #NOT $1 per load, but hundreds of dollars per load. I get it that there are some carriers that are just barely staying alive and hoping and praying the #CashFlow will keep them alive to fight another day. But losing money on loads, is #NEVER a good idea, especially when you are struggling. I personally know of one such TL carrier with over 400 trucks out of the Northwest that may not survive the month. I hope and pray that they do, for the sake of the drivers and employees. But when #Leadership is too proud to admit their mistakes, and unwilling to accept the recommendations of those wanting and willing to assist to help the carrier survive ... and even provide those services on a Pro Bono basis (for some that may not know the term, that's for #No #Charge) ... there's not much that friends or associates can do. Anyhow, enough about that ... read the article and I'm sure you'll walk away scratching your head. https://lnkd.in/gsvQDjCb

3

In the 3PL world, the savvy folks will benchmark on the blanket program pricing when negotiating a CSP. That works better than a custom pricing program, but its still too slow and the LTL carriers are very ... 'structured' (to put in nicely) in their CSP process With all the API advancements and FreightTech companies out there... it's crazy to me that LTL carriers still rely on the Czarlite base rates and State-to-State discounts when pricing new CSP business

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Leveraging Sendflex’s advanced capabilities in automating parcel consolidation during order optimization, ConnectShip users gain unparalleled flexibility in processing both individual parcels and consolidated parcels via LTL and air carriers at the shipping stage.

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Where are dry van truckload prices at? With DAT’s most recent data released this week, as well as the BLS’s PPI for general freight trucking, long-distance, truckload [primary services], I wanted to share my thoughts. Two charts below. Thoughts: •Top chart shows DAT’s dry van spot rates (red) and what they call contract rates (black) (including fuel). Both continue to move in parallel. Historically, every major market shift (2014, mid-2017, mid-2020) has corresponded to a sharp uptick in dry van spot rates, inclusive of diesel prices. We just aren’t seeing any signs of such an uptick now, which further solidifies my view that we can write of 2024 as the year the market could turn. It’s time to turn the page to 2025. •Bottom chart shows the producer price index for the commoditized portion of dry van TL freight (which includes fuel). That index continues to move sideways. Historically, as with spot rates (but to a much lesser extent [at least in 2014 and 2017-2018), we will see these rates spike when market cycles change. The BLS’s data likewise is corroborating this hasn’t happened yet. Implication: despite a lot of excitement with the election outcome, the brutal reality is that the dry van truckload sector needs a significant infusion of freight to get out of the current “limbo” conditions where we have seen one cycle end but have yet to see another cycle begin. To continue to echo the prediction I’ve made for several months, the soonest I see the market meaningfully changing towards carriers’ favor would be late Q1 to early Q2 2025. We will need to closely watch demand signals over the coming months, especially data on manufacturing new orders. For the late Q1 to early Q2 market turn to materialize, we will need to see a rapid uptick in new orders over the next few releases from ISM. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #economics #trucking 

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15 Comments

LTL carriers hate Curbside Deliveries E-Commerce brands hate curbside delivery service Consumers hate the curbside delivery experience -------------------- Rocket is making significant progress fixing this problem. We reverse engineered it. Focusing on consumer delivery experience and our E-Commerce clients love it. We are fixing a business problem for them by hyper focusing on the niche of delivery options, tracking, carrier rates, and TMS options with gray glove home delivery as the main focus Small problem, small market (relative to the larger freight brokerage), but meaningful revenue growth for Rocket and no market saturation on the horizon

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9 Comments

As we look ahead to Trump's second term, questions arise about the future of freight and logistics. Will policy changes boost the industry or create new hurdles for shippers? Check out our latest blog, which dives into the potential impacts on LTL freight, covering everything from trade policies to infrastructure developments.

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Nothing is perfect in logistics. Now we'll tell you something you might NOT know... Epay Manager STARTS with a broker's TMS data and eliminates 99% of the back and forth, tedious "needle in a haystack" searching that can cause headaches...or worse. Be more efficient...MUCH more efficient...with Epay Manager Powered by OTR Solutions.

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Selection of the right partners will be very critical through this cycle. We look forward to work with partners that have North American networks that we can apply solutions through our different divisions. 2025 is going to be a game changer I believe

10

Why does the current freight recession in the trucking sector feel so steep, yet truck transportation payrolls have declined only 2% from their mid-2022 peak (as compared with 6% drops during the 2001 freight recession and a staggering 15% during the 2007 - 2009 freight recession)? In this analyst article published yesterday in Journal of Commerce, I try to provide some answers to this question. Some key things to consider: [1]: This freight recession is middle of the road in terms of percent decline in trucking demand (measured using the trucking ton-mile index) compared to those over the last 50 years. For example, it is 33% the size of the 1973-1975 freight recession and just 25% the magnitude of the 2007-2009 freight recession. That said, the max drop in demand from March 2022 (recorded in January 2024) of 4.9% is double the depth of the 2019 freight recession. [2]: The perceived depth of the current freight recession seems to be more driven by the very sharp pull back in freight rates, with 2023 seeing record year-over-year declines in the dry van truckload sector. But important context: freight rates saw record increases in 2021 and the first half of 2022. [3]: The fact trucking demand remains weak, yet containerized imports are up high single-digit or low double-digit percentages requires a realignment of our understanding of trucking freight demand. As shown by the Commodity Flow Survey, domestic manufacturing output is much more impactful in shaping trucking freight volumes. Implication: to understand trucking demand, focus less on containerized imports and retailers' inventories to sales ratios and, instead, focus on industrial production in freight-intensive manufacturing sectors. Unfortunately, I'm seeing few signs of a demand surge coming in the second half of 2024. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #shipsandshipping #freight #trucking https://lnkd.in/gSRgwUPj

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34 Comments

The prolonged downturn in freight rates have brought with it a wave of strategic activity. The latest being RXO, Inc. taking Coyote Logistics off the hands of UPS. The $1B price tag is about a third of the unit's '23 Gross Revenues, 2x Gross Profit, and 11.6x Adj. EBITDA. That means UPS will book roughly a $800M loss on the sale but be extremely happy with ridding itself of the unit. See comments for more coverage on this 👇🏽 So where's my head at? Increasingly it looks like we might be exiting a multi-year freight recession as import volumes are returning to a seasonal norm, tender rejections trend up, and M&A activity is on the rise. Time will tell given that the sector still needs to work through roughly 120k new carriers that entered the market during COVID to balance out supply with demand. The last two years saw the LLM cycle overlayed with one of the worst freight markets on record. That afforded a lot of opportunity for startups to insert themselves and prove their worth around reducing cost to serve and increasing gross profit per head (the Northstar for brokerage business models). I believe in the next decade we will see billion-dollar books of freight serviced by teams a fraction of the size they are today. Such teams will largely be sales focused rather than "servicing freight" or in back office functions. This is where opportunity exists. Investing in this sector is not for the faint of heart and requires a deep understanding of the various forces that impact freight brokerages, the LLM cycle that can drive meaningful leverage to the business model, and an understanding of the customer's needs and how to deliver it to them. I'm cautiously optimistic about what's in store for the sector. CC Dynamo Ventures

152

11 Comments

Many of you know I’ve long argued that FreightWaves Contract Load Acceptance Volume (CLAV.USA) metric is not a good representation of for-hire truckload freight volumes in the USA. The recent article Craig Fuller published (https://lnkd.in/gpa4CexE) lends support for my concerns. I want to draw attention to this quote: “Contracted load accepted volumes, another SONAR index measuring contracted load demand, tell us that the market has grown since January 2023. As of April 15, 2024, year-over-year contracted volumes are up 9%.” Here are two facts that raise serious validity concerns (in my professional academic opinion) that make me believe CLAV isn’t nationally representative: [1]: It doesn’t align with Q1 public truckload carrier financial results. When you look at the chart provided in the article, CLAV has been up throughout 2024 relative to 2023. Yet, you have carriers like JB Hunt hauling fewer loads (-6.8% YoY for dedicated and -5.2% for truckload) in Q1 2024 than Q1 2023. That decline can’t represent JBH turning down that much contractual business due to low rates from contractual customers. [2]: Other indexes such as Cass Shipments and For-Hire Trucking Ton-Miles aren’t showing strong YoY gains; they are showing the opposite in YoY declines of 2-4%. The trucking ton-mile index is nationally representative because it is constructed from the Commodity Flow Survey and various government data sources. Implication: while I really like FreightWaves’ Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI.USA), which I believe is a good indicator of the current balance of supply and demand in the truckload sector, too many other data points result in me concluding that the underlying tender volume data are not representative of truckload freight demand. For anyone who wants to argue differently, ask yourself this: are you or most of the other carriers/brokers you know seeing 9% year-over-year increases in truckload freight volumes? JBH and Knight-Swift certainly aren’t. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload #logistics

192

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🚛📉 Truckload carriers are bracing for a tough Q1 as analysts slash earnings projections by over 20%. With pricing pressures and tough negotiations, the road ahead may be bumpy. Dive deeper into the forecast here: https://lnkd.in/evWYWThh #TruckingIndustry #EarningsForecasts #Q1Reports #FALogistics #IndustryForecasts #SupplyChainTrends #FreightAnalysis #FinancialOutlook #LogisticsIndustry

2

Logistics providers need an avenue to enter new freight markets (confidently)... But high upfront costs and heavy operational management usually get in the way. Imagine if that wasn't an issue. ⬇️ With Trailers as a Service (TaaS) logistics providers get access to flexible trailer capacity without the maintenance burden all in one subscription to scale their business with trailers. ✅Flexible Trailer Pool Network: Gain access to a vast, on-demand network of trailers that scales with your business, providing the capacity you need when you need it. ✅Operational Infrastructure: Leverage a robust infrastructure that simplifies trailer management, allowing your team to focus on moving freight, not trailer logistics. ✅Expand into New Markets: TaaS unlocks new drop trailer opportunities, enabling participation in markets previously out of reach. ✅Optimize Asset Utilization: Maximize trailer uptime and efficiency with smart technology that supports better asset tracking and fleet management. ✅Cost-Effective Scaling: Reduce capital expenditure and minimize risk with a subscription-based model that offers flexibility without the burden of large upfront investments. ✅Agility in a Changing Market: Whether you’re a carrier, shipper, or 3PL, TaaS provides the tools to adapt quickly to shifts in demand, empowering your business to grow with confidence. Scale smarter, enter new markets, and stay ahead of the competition. Want to learn more about TaaS? Follow the link in the comments! #OneWabash #Logistics #Freight #TaaS #Transportation

67

2 Comments

Drayage Freight Brokers - what they do and how they can help shippers during these inventory stock-ups before import tariffs kick in next year - https://ow.ly/m0bN50U9t1S #drayage #freight #shipping #shippers #imports #tariffs #inventorymanagement #inventorycheck #supplyanddemand

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The LTL landscape is demanding more. Margins are tight, competition is fierce, and manual processes are a bottleneck to growth. Tai TMS empowers LTL freight brokers to transcend limitations and embrace automation. Our solution automates your LTL operations from quote to invoice, freeing up your team's valuable time to scale efficiently without adding headcount. Focus on what matters most - growing your business⚡ Unlock efficiency today! Book a demo: https://lnkd.in/gUmsau6m #TaiTMS #FreightBrokers #LTL

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Thoughts from the professionals - UPS sells Coyote Logistics This week it was announced that UPS will be handing off its truckload brokerage unit Coyote Logistics to RXO, Inc. for $1.025 billion dollars. Here is what some industry professionals thought about the deal: - Ryan Schreiber of consulting group Metafora. Please add your thoughts on the deal in the comment section below. Learn more about the deal here : https://lnkd.in/ebjyMVSy #UPS #Coyote #sell Grace Sharkey 🚛🤖💙 Jim Waters Josh Brazil

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1 Comment