Michael Hagan, CFA

Sharing a few take-aways, in my own words, from Gartner's Top U.S. Consumer and Cultural Trends for 2025 webinar: 1. Consumers have a long memory for inflation 2. Buyers believe prices are high and... 3. Distrust big companies 4. People want price stablity and would be willing to pay more if they knew the price would remain stable 5. Value is still important and influences decisions to buy or not buy 6. 'My Insta is not like your Insta'...with social and news feeds being so curated and highly customized, consumers want to know what is normal and how do they stack up 7. Thifting yes 8. Consumption no 9. Loud budgeting might still be a thing 10. Gen Y and Z to Boomers, 'step aside and share the wealth.' Boomers to everyone, 'we're here to stay and we love facebook' Fascinating research and data, I'm off to plan my holiday fridgescape. (look it up, it's a thing)

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The downgrade reflects Kohl's continued EBITDA declines. The declines signal that the company may not be able to successfully execute an operating strategy to profitably defend market share in the secularly challenged department store space. Fitch views flattish revenue and EBITDA in the medium term as Kohl's best-case scenario. The company's recently reduced 2024 guidance suggests a rebased EBITDA of around $1 billion, below the $1.2 billion in Fitch's prior forecast.

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Check out the Q2 2024 Business Cycle Update from my colleagues on Fidelity's Asset Allocation Research Team: https://bit.ly/4dgaMeP Many major economies, including the U.S., remained in the late-cycle expansion phase and registered hints of stabilization and even reacceleration in some areas. Expectations of monetary easing have contributed to improving global financial conditions, and worldwide manufacturing activity has firmed. China remained an outlier, as it continued to ease policy in hopes of reaccelerating from its growth slump.

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We were asked this morning for our thoughts from on Medline Industries, LP filing for an #IPO and what this portends for the sector and the broader IPO market in 2025? "Medline sets stage for blockbuster US IPO with confidential filing," by Reuters reporters Niket Nishant and Manya Saini. QUOTED EXCERPT "A rebounding IPO market would be a major boon for long-in-the-tooth private equity investments and continuation funds seeking exits and capital returns," said Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital. 🐣News of IPO deals emerging across multiple industries strengthens our faith that the listing markets will meaningfully reopen in 2025; this is something we started commenting on to our clients and watching carefully as a possibility earlier this year as then candidate (but now president-elect) #Trump's poll numbers rose. 🩺Medline is an indicator of this in the healthcare and medical supply space, selecting Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to lead the IPO less than four years after its massive $34 billion leveraged buyout during the pandemic. 💵A revival in the IPO market would significantly benefit mature #PrivateEquity funds and continuation funds seeking to exit #investments and return capital to their limited partners. 🔁Sufficient capital returned could even catalyze a fresh cycle of PE fundraising and business acquisitions. Also quoted in the article was Angelo Bochanis at Renaissance Capital. ~~  Running Point, “we are your family office”™ #estateplanning #uhnwi #investing #taxes #multifamilyoffice #wealthmanagement #economy ~~ Disclosure: The opinions expressed are those of Running Point Capital Advisors, LLC (Running Point) and are subject to change without notice. This is not investment advice and this is not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. Running Point is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Running Point’s investment advisory services and fees can be found in its Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. RP-24-220

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Small caps are grabbing headlines, yet remain near a 20-year low vs large peers: https://lnkd.in/gKwVxcYW Watch our team's 5-minute take on whether the rotation can continue. This information is proprietary and cannot be reproduced or distributed. Certain information may be received from sources Voya Investment Management ("Voya IM") considers reliable; Voya IM does not represent that such information is accurate or complete. Certain statements contained herein may constitute "projections," "forecasts" and other "forward-looking statements" which do not reflect actual results are based primarily upon applying retroactively a hypothetical set of assumptions to certain historical financial data. Actual results, performance or events may different materially from those in such statements. Any opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements presented herein are valid only as of the date of this document and are subject to change. Nothing contained herein should be construed as (i) an offer to buy any security or (ii) a recommendation as to the advisability of investing in, purchasing or selling any security. Voya IM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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I'll cut to it - Presidential elections (and changes in political leadership) generally lead to short-term volatility spikes in markets, which are more pronounced when there is a change in political parties. That said, over the long term, the S&P 500 tends to recover and grow regardless of the political party in power More on this to coming. #wealthmanagement #investing #markets

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With seven of the top ten MSOs (by enterprise value) reporting, here are some summary metrics: * Only Green Thumb Industries (GTI) and Trulieve beat topline revenue expectations * Four of the seven beat AEBITDA expectations. * Sales increased 0.32% Q/Q and 3.95% Y/Y. With no new markets opening, we expected softer top-line growth. * AEBITDA dropped -1.55% Q/Q and grew 13.79% Y/Y. Big SG&A cuts drove the strong Y/Y AEBITDA improvements. Green Thumb Industries (GTI) and Trulieve have had the classiest quarters; we’ll see what we learn tomorrow from TerrAscend, Cresco Labs, and The Cannabist Company.

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Cambridge Associates' Chief Investment Strategist shares that by focusing on diversification that includes value added opportunities, liquidity management, and strategic asset allocation, investors can build resilient portfolios capable of weathering economic storms and achieving long-term success. Read more of her investment advice in our latest VantagePoint: https://ow.ly/fYCU50TGFKs

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With two top MSOs reporting, we see drastically different results versus consensus expectations for Green Thumb Industries (GTI) and Ascend Wellness Holdings (CSE: AAWH.U / OTCQX:AAWH). We would love more transparency from Green Thumb Industries (GTI) but can't argue with the results.

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AllianceBernstein Private Credit Outlook: Keep Calm and Diversify. Interest rates are falling but growth is holding up. Still, we see ways to proactively shore up private allocations https://lnkd.in/eAcFiiHx

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Last week, I had the pleasure of participating on the CIO panel at our 7th ETF Symposium at J.P. Morgan Asset Management's NY headquarters. Key takeaways for managing multi-asset portfolios, ETFs provide: 𝗘̲fficiency to strategically access alpha and beta 𝗧̲actical opportunity to express specific views 𝗙̲lexibility to adapt to today's ever changing market conditions

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Great panel about growth strategies with recently promoted Robert Karofsky (Co- President Americas - UBS) recently promoted Michael Camacho (Head of WM US), and John S. Mathews (Head of PWM - UBS)! Few insights from the private wealth briefing: 1) ~$18T of assets will pass between generations from now to 2030 based on a recent Ernst & Young survey. 2) ~$30T of assets will pass to women between now to 2030 based on a recent McKinsey survey. 3) UBS ARC (Analytical Research Community) is a competitive advantage: connecting tech founders, venture capitalists with high quality sector research. 4) Recently created Unified Global Banking, led by Jennifer Gabrielli aims to bring 'one bank' to the next level with wrap around solutions for private clients and their companies. Thanks for spending time together! Team: Chuck Korasick / Robert Gach / Jen Lechman / Samantha Bloom / Jon Schechter, CFP® / Lizzie / Susan Mgmt: Lauren Gorsche #ubsglobalwealthmanagemnt #pwmconference2024

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GOATs of Investing. 🐐     Mario Gabelli and John Catsimatidis are two exceptional leaders, investors, and entrepreneurs (and native New Yorkers) who have not only delivered remarkable returns but also built enduring enterprises through thoughtful capital allocation, differentiated long-term insights, resilience, and conviction.     It was a privilege to hear fellow Bronx native Mario Gabelli, Founder & CEO of Gabelli Funds rejoin John Catsimatidis, Founder & CEO of Red Apple Group, for another engaging discussion on the #1 Sunday show, #TheCatsRoundtable on 77 WABC Radio.     Their conversation covered critical topics including the U.S. economy, market strategies, and the outlook as we head into 2025, particularly in the context of post-election dynamics.     Mario also shared insights on his position as the largest shareholder of voting stock of Paramount. He recently urged the Federal Communications Commission to pause its review of the transfer of broadcast licenses related to Paramount’s proposed merger with Skydance and RedBird Capital Partners—a development recently highlighted in New York Post and Barron's.     This insightful conversation originally aired on Sunday, November 24, on New York’s #1 rated station, 77 WABC Radio, owned and operated by Red Apple Group.     Interview Link:   https://lnkd.in/eCaxdJPR     #Investing #MarioGabelli #JohnCatsimatidis #FinanceLeadership #EconomicOutlook #Paramount #Skydance #TheCatsRoundtable #WABC #LongTermThinking #Stocks #Bonds #Markets #2025investing #RedAppleGroup #WABC770 #NYPost #Barron's #media

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📢 Two companies to keep an eye on: Dell Technologies and Palantir Technologies. Both are set to join the S&P 500 on September 23rd, but with the index capped at 500, American Airlines and Etsy will be making their exit due to underperformance. On another note, after last week’s dip, US markets bounced back last night but have been trading in a tight range today. Turning to oil, #Brent crude dropped to $68/b, mainly due to weak demand growth from China, a slowdown is driven by a combination of cyclical and structural factors, including the rapid rise of EVs, which now account for 54% of total car sales in China. Meanwhile, rising output from non OPEC+ nations is also adding to the pressure on prices. Adding to the bearish sentiment, #OPEC+ delayed the phase out of production cuts, signaling concerns over demand and even revising down their forecasts. 📌 Could the "September effect" be at play here? Even the threat of an approaching tropical storm that could disrupt US production isn’t enough to lift prices. Even the future curve has been flattening rapidly, though we’re still in a supply deficit environment. Now could these price levels finally attract #buybacks and set a floor?

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The TCW Group’s #EmergingMarkets Update is now available. Read why Distressed Leads the Way, as we continue to monitor hard landing narratives, the Israel/Hamas conflict, Chinese growth downside, election risk & more.

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Granolas can offer more diversity versus the Magnificent 7. Important disclosures: https://bit.ly/2JzEDWl .

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