Melinda McLaughlin

The NAIOP Research Foundation's latest report examines best practices in the design of reverse logistics networks, including the location and design of reverse logistics facilities. The expansion of ecommerce and forgiving customer return policies has led to accelerated growth in the volume of returned items processed by retailers and manufacturers. A growing share of these companies are turning to reverse logistics to recapture the value of returned items and improve their operations' environmental sustainability. Commercial real estate professionals will play an important role in helping supply chain managers locate and build facilities that can process goods flowing back up the supply chain. #reverselogistics #industrialrealestate #supplychain https://lnkd.in/edXjPQ6d

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The value of distressed assets in the #CRE marketplace continued to grow in the U.S. into Q3'24. Still, the ramp up is not as rapid as that seen following the GFC as there are different forces at play in the current market. Read more about the source of distress and a chart on comparisons to the GFC by my colleague Alexis Maltin here: http://ms.spr.ly/6049WR4GN MSCI Real Assets

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Great webinar yesterday presented by Jeffrey W. Adler of Yardi Matrix. Some Portland specific notes- - YoY Rent Growth Year-End 2024 - 0.3% - YoY Rent Growth Year-End 2025 - 4.5% High level/national notes- - "Overall, the multifamily market is performing well, as demand continues to soak up supply" - "The supply shortage of U.S. housing is likely to last at least 5-10 years..." - "Rental growth in the next two years will be stronger than this year, as it will take some time for the Fed’s eventual rate cuts to meaningfully impact consumer demand" https://lnkd.in/gnpUW2VZ

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Our global corporate real estate sentiment index was born out of a recognition that whilst CRE professionals and the businesses they support have longer-term strategies, their ability to deliver waxes and wanes over the short-term as macro-economic and operating conditions vary. The latest Q2 2024 index illustrates this point well - occupier sentiment has taken a hit owing largely to concerns around the global economic outlook and corporate performance. Long-term aims around occupying better more sustainable buildings remain firm - the ability to get there short-term less so. #corporaterealestate #occupiers #offices

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May 2024 US #sales data is in and the volume is still struggling to recover. At $18.0B. volume was down 38% year-over-year, a change from the single-digit declines seen in March and April. Both #industrial and #multifamily saw month-over-month increases. Industrial also recorded a 9% increase in prices, the only asset class to do so. Multifamily volume totaled $6.7B, though up in May, it declined 44% year-over-year. #Office sales volume pulled back in May and was down 42% year-over-year. The market appears to be thawing and should bring strong months ahead due to greater activity on portfolios and available assets. We've started to see some larger transactions in the #Sacramento market in recent months and should see an uptick in volume throughout the remainder of the year.

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As we consider the current administration’s proposal to implement a rent control mechanism, capping rents at 5% for owners of 50 or more units, it is crucial not to lose sight of the many other challenges contributing to the growing affordability crisis. There has been no shortage of criticism on this plan on LinkedIn, grounded in years of well-founded research and opinions from numerous housing experts across the nation. Almost unanimously, the consensus is that imposing national rent control will exacerbate existing housing shortages—now averaging 1.5 million units nationwide—and increase, rather than decrease, affordability. I encourage you to read the attached article from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), which offers a ten-point guide as a blueprint towards equitable housing. Pay special attention to points #1, #5, #6, and #8. While every point on the NAHB’s guide is significant, those I highlight have been responsible for adding over 40% to multifamily development and over 20% to single-family development in regulatory costs alone. In Puerto Rico, these costs are even higher, further complicated by grossly inequitable fair market rents that are unsustainable at any level. Rent cap legislation was also introduced fairly recently, ignoring the massive disfunction in permitting, land-use restrictions, approvals and archaic zoning statutes, amongst others. This isn’t rocket science; it’s a matter of supply and demand. With high demand and limited inventory, we all know who ends up paying. #NAHB #ACPR #affordablehousing #realestatedevelopment #multifamily #singlefamily #puertorico #realestate #housingcrisis #apartments #homebuilding #housing #housingpolicy

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Black Friday is right around the corner. How will the holiday shopping season impact the performance of retail CRE? I dive into that issue in greater detail in this latest X-Factor. Read it here! https://lnkd.in/gXHQfyzM

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Commercial real estate seems to be turning a corner globally. There are still storm clouds out there, and holes in the capital stack that need to be patched for some assets. But the rapid decline in deal volume and pricing came to a halt in the second quarter of 2024. MSCI Real Assets #CRE

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The latest NAIOP Office Space Demand Forecast projects that net demand for office space will shrink by 11.8 million square feet over the last three quarters of 2024 and will contract an additional 4.5 million square feet in 2025. Tenants have had several quarters to adapt to hybrid schedules and adjust their use of space accordingly. The forecast's authors expect that economic factors will increasingly drive leasing decisions going forward. However, persistent inflation, high interest rates and the continued possibility of a recession suggest the office market is not likely to rebound this year. #office #cre https://lnkd.in/eBzNVQHf

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Exciting Update from the Commercial Real Estate Sector! Based on the NAIOP CRE Sentiment Index conducted April 3-11, 2024: https://lnkd.in/eugDAfcH I recently came across the latest NAIOP CRE Sentiment Index for Spring 2024, and the results are promising! The index has climbed to 52, a significant rebound from last September, indicating positive expectations for the commercial real estate (CRE) industry over the next 12 months. 📊 Key Highlights: -Optimistic Outlook: Most components of the Index show improved sentiment, with capital market conditions, debt, and equity availability leading the way. This shift is likely due to the anticipation of falling interest rates. -Sector Demand: Industrial, retail, and multifamily properties are expected to see favorable demand, while the office sector may continue to face challenges. -Deal Volume: Developers and building owners foresee a slight increase in deal volume, reflecting better capital availability. -General Conditions: A separate score for general industry conditions sits at 58, suggesting an overall positive economic outlook. 🔍 Notable Insights: -Respondents expect interest rates to be lower, improving capital market conditions. -Despite rising construction costs, there's a growing optimism about occupancy rates and effective rents. -The commercial office sector remains a wildcard, with some predicting ongoing difficulties due to functional obsolescence and lease expirations. As someone deeply invested in the CRE sector, it's encouraging to see these positive trends and the optimism shared by industry professionals. What are your thoughts on the evolving landscape of commercial real estate? Are you seeing similar trends in your projects and markets? Let’s discuss! 💬👇 #CRE #RealEstate #MarketTrends #NAIOP #SentimentIndex #CommercialRealEstate #Investment #Development #EconomicOutlook

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Dive into the Future of Housing with Greystar! Andrew Ord shared insights on our innovative build-to-rent projects with Mary Salmonsen of Multifamily Dive discussing target markets, programming philosophy, and the evolving build-to-rent space. Check it out below. #RealEstate #BuildToRent #Greystar #Innovation #FutureOfHousing #InterviewInsights

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One key takeaway from Daniel Shapiro’s keynote presentation on the subject of Negotiation at #SIORSpring24 was about how to work WITH your negotiating “colleague” as opposed to working AGAINST your negotiating “adversary”. After multiple wars between Ecuador and Peru over a coveted piece of land, the two presidents met together in 1998 and opted to take a different path forward by working side by side to better understand interests and collaborate on solutions. The Brasilia Presidential Act, also known as the Fujimori–Mahuad Treaty, is an international treaty signed in Brasilia by the then President of Ecuador, Jamil Mahuad and then President of Peru, Alberto Fujimori, which effectively put an end to the Ecuadorian–Peruvian territorial dispute. “Turn an adversary into a colleague.” - Daniel Shapiro (Harvard Business School) SIOR Global, #negotiation, #investmentsales, #capitalmarkets, #commercialrealestate

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How has demand for office space changed compared to pre-pandemic? In this latest X-Factor, I explore several ways to measure the shift in demand for office space over the last four years and which cities have seen the largest declines. Some takeaways: -- San Francisco has, by far, been the most impacted market, followed by San Jose and the East Bay (which are right next door to SF). -- Rents have been "downward sticky" in most geographies, but this is unlikely to continue. -- Prices, by contrast, have not been downward sticky, and appear to already be pricing in reduced demand even in cities where lower prices aren't matched by lower rents. -- Suburban office prices have, so far, fared meaningfully better than urban core office prices. Read the full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/g3qTEvwX

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The apparent paradox between the downturn in #multifamily confidence and the optimistic trajectory of Apartment #REITS' guidance epitomizes the multifaceted nature of the real estate sector. Highlighted in two articles from GlobeSt.com, titled “Multifamily Confidence Slide" and “Apartment REITS Increase Guidance," these conflicting headlines serve as a poignant reflection of the industry's complexity. John Francis Rodiles, National Sales Manager at The Mogharebi Group, “If you see conflicting headlines, the answer is often in the details.” We are seeing rent growth help cover increases in operational expenses for many multifamily owners. Concurrently, imminent refinancing will continue to pressure equity positions and bank balance sheets.   Check out the articles:  https://lnkd.in/g7eiKUpC   https://lnkd.in/gwx5yWxg

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For the first time in two years(!), the average U.S. #multifamily occupancy rate didn’t decline—it moved sideways in the second quarter. Fundamentals are stabilizing right now. Read about it in our latest Q2 Multifamily Figures report (linked below). A few key takeaways: ·      Vacancy didn’t go up ·      Why? Because demand outpaced new deliveries (in a period of extreme supply) ·      This kept average rent growth positive (albeit low—but STABLE) ·      AND cap rate stabilization finally showed up in the transactional data ·      Did I mention that investment volume went up?! A lot. Even excluding the large Blackstone portfolio. ·      Outside of these quarterly stats, we just saw the last of the accelerating operating expenses (i.e. property insurance) is finally dropping alongside other expenses that are reverting to normal. https://lnkd.in/guTS3WuY The stage is set for a steady recovery in values over the next few years. Although renter demand remains a wildcard, a few demand-side drivers should soak up what’s left of the supply pipeline and drive recovering occupancy (and rent growth) beginning later this year: 1.     the for-sale market remains unaffordable for many 2.     job growth and household formation are fueling demand 3.     supply-induced demand (i.e. the discounts that people are taking advantage of in the new properties that are leasing up) P.S., about that low but positive rent growth, we have more insight coming. Even in markets and submarkets with negative rent growth, we’re starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, and many are trending towards positivity. But more to come on that later this month. Travis Deese #cbre #multifamily #capitalmarkets #research

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Hot off the press - Urban Land Institute and PwC report on Emerging Trends in Real Estate shows incredible growth and promise for Sunbelt markets. #ulifall #emergingtrends #futureofcities https://lnkd.in/enJWWbk3

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Explore Moody's data on the multifamily sector's changing dynamics in feature by Multi-Housing News. Discover insights on vacancy rates, rent performance, and market trends amid ongoing supply-side pressures and elevated concessions in tenant-favored markets: https://lnkd.in/eh_t2aPJ

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Interesting insights into the status of Malls in this Smart Cities Dive piece. Asserting a firm belief that retail is not dead, this article delves into some trends affecting malls and Gen Z's impact. #retail #mixeduse #economicdevelopment #GenZ #malls https://lnkd.in/eEaTsJDD

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When will we hit the bottom? Have we hit the bottom? Now may be the best time for a strategic office acquisition in a premier building, or find an all time low rent deal in an affordable building. #cre #sfcre #officespace #office

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