Mark Patten

File under: energy regulatory observations, #RTO #complaints / #waivers when there are #tariff issues that don't make sense. I read a fair number of daily orders from / filings with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and this granting of a complaint against PJM stood out as a quick one to highlight for a few reasons. First, the level of tax-codification (like Shakespeare, I'll invent the words I need) that RTO tariffs have undergone. Read the intro paragraph of the order capturing the crux of the issue. My goodness. I cover issues across ISOs/RTOs from PJM, to NYISO, CAISO, and of course ISO-NE as well non-888/2000 regions like BPA and public utility districts and everyone has their own rules. For companies doing business in the US (which, for example, is common with generation, transmission developers, and large loads), it's like needing to be fluent in several languages. Observation: no wonder #FERC has some aspirations to more standardized language to at least create a bit of standardization in the tariff tower of Babel. Second, the complaint as a consensus tool. It's human nature to want to be right. Evolutionary, it's a mark of power. And power means safety. Humans are wired that way for survival, and it takes some self-awareness and reflection to engage the rational cortex over the non-verbal and much older limbic system and to hit the pause button to a challenge. The term "complaint" doesn't always help and neither does the "party v. party" case caption. The whole structure connotes conflict. Here, Dominion filed a waiver with a complaint in the alternative because PJM interpreted its tariff to not allow for a resource submission given a change in entity type. But instead of simply defending the tariff, PJM acknowledged the issue and supported a fix if the also supported waiver wasn't granted. FERC granted the complaint to fix the issue generally rather than a one off. While the stakeholder process - and all the interests that are encompassed therein - can make agreement to a change like this more difficult, the complaint and waiver processes are paths that can and should be used especially where time matters. One of the most critical things for those administering the rules to understand is: a delay is not harmless, a "comeback next time" is not without victims. Many projects have to have all elements align to move forward. Other issues may be more durable but can add needless costs to consumers, and those add up. This "how can we work with parties" approach is great to see and hopefully we'll see more of it. From capacity markets to interconnections, there is a lot of room for win-wins. Also, great to see Commissioner Rosner's name on these. #energy

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AES Indiana knows that EVs are coming, but like many utilities, they didn't exactly know where they are now, or how customer adoption might impact their grid. When does EV adoption add up to something they need to care about? We ran a bottoms-up analysis, starting by finding existing EVs, and then modeling the future impact of EV adoption for every substation, feeder circuit, and transformer on their grid. At just 5% adoption, the costs are significant enough to warrant intervention. Without mitigation, the potential cost blowup is in the $100m+ range. And what can a utility do about this? We also modelled multiple interventions - time of use rates, managed charging, and a data driven planning scenario which is effectively "data as a non wires alternative". Big takeaways: *Time Of Use rates are much worse than doing nothing.* Managed charging shows the highest cost savings, but much of that can also be realized by just actively monitoring EV activity and load growth and using that data to drive less conservative planning assumptions. Data as a non wires alternative! We're excited to be able to share this work - we've done similar analyses on other grids, but AES was excited to share these results to help other utilities struggling with the same problem. Very grateful for their willingness to share!

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This week, ERCOT experienced scorching triple digit temperature. On 8/20, the RT price soared to $5,000/MWh, setting a new benchmark. At its peak, ERCOT experienced net load of 70.9GW hitting all-time high. Amidst a drop in solar generation, Energy Storage played a crucial role by dispatching 3.9GW, marking an 18% increase from the previous record (which so happens to be the previous day). #BESS excelled in asset dispatch, ensuring grid stability during peak demand. IHI Terrasun Solutions is proud to witness Terrasun's system supporting ERCOT during these critical moments, bolstering grid reliability! #ERCOT #Record #Gridreliability

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Via ESN: " Dominion Energy Virginia IRP includes 12GW of solar PV, 4.5GW energy storage: US utility Dominion Energy Virginia has outlined options for meeting future power demand, including an additional 12GW of PV and 4.5GW of battery storage. " #EnergyStorage #Energy #BatteryStorage

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Can the Midwest #electricity grid operate reliably without #naturalgas and coal, resources long seen as the bedrock of the Midwest grid? Yes, according to the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) And the solution is #batteryenergystorage https://lnkd.in/eP8KB-bB

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Does PJM give a signal to build anything other than short term sources - intermittent wind or solar backed up by batteries or natural gas? The capacity market would need to be 40 yrs or more to cover long lived assets like nuclear (a 40 to 80yr asset) or hydro (similar long lived asset) if it isn’t already built. This same market forced the shutdown of TMI one of the best running nuclear plants in the world.

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On average, the daily consumption in the PJM market range from 1800 to 2300 gigawatt-hours, and the windfarms need 100% backup power from baseload providers to avoid massive blackouts. As natural gas is a dying method of power generation, it’s time to add offshore pumped hydro into the next generation offshore windfarms, which can be scaled up to generate significant amounts of power, potentially up to 100 TWh annually per location if the onshore grid is dimensioned for offtake. Here is a deeper dive into the patented technology, which require a minimum of 100 meter water depth to utilize vacuum generated pressure and buoyancy force: https://lnkd.in/dnUmzJsQ.

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Capacity market prices for energy in PJM surged, signaling a crucial demand for additional generation. PJM Interconnection's footprint is set to allocate $14.7 billion for capacity in the 2025/26 delivery year, a substantial rise from $2.2 billion in the previous auction. Stay informed about the energy sector's evolving landscape: [Link to the article] #EnergyMarket #CapacityAuction #PJMInterconnection

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This article discussion flies in the face of the market PJM has created. A market that only supports short term assets like wind and solar backed up by gas or batteries. In short it confirms the market flaws that have been claimed by utilities over many years, and should encourage support for creating market signals to create long lived assets like baseload generation plants.

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Want insights from tested practitioners from the latest State of Sustainable #Fleets Market Brief? Nate Springer, TRC, and Jay Traugott, Commercial Carrier Journal (CCJ), explore the future of clean #transportation, electricity demands of fleet #electrification, state of #hydrogen fuel cell technology & more in this informative interview: https://okt.to/yji2bG #trccompanies

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Episode 3 of Stu & The Gas Holes is here!

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The reliability and economics of wind energy

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Colorado just hit 28% market share of plug-in vehicles in Q3 2024! These numbers have skyrocketed over the past 3 years, almost catching up with California. WHY? Maybe it's because Colorado now has about 100,000 roving EV "billboards" in the form of an attractive and distinct EV license plate. Or maybe it's because Colorado's major EV education campaign called EV CO (https://evco.colorado.gov/) has used solid consumer market research (conducted by E Source) to create a practical yet compelling multi-year educational campaign to directly address the key and persistent barriers to adoption. Note that EV CO does NOT use flashy ads, yet it's getting thousands of hits per month. 1. "Charging at home is easier than you think." 2. "Charging on the go will take you where you need to go...mountains, hiking, concerts, games, family outings." 3. Real people, like you, telling their own stories in plain language about how easy it is to have an EV in Colorado. (And some influencers thrown in as well). 4. Direct assistance with how to shop for an EV, and how to find and calculate rebates and tax credits. Why aren't more states taking a small portion of their EV investments in charging infrastructure and putting it towards education and outreach? I don't know, but let me know if your state wants more insights on accelerating EV demand. Source for 28% market share: https://lnkd.in/ggWrYvaF Colorado Energy Office Plug In America Alliance for Transportation Electrification (ATE) Forth Center for Sustainable Energy (CSE) Zero Emission Transportation Association NASEO - National Association of State Energy Officials RMI EPRI Xcel Energy #evs #electriccars #tesla #rivian #gm #ford #electricvehicles #sustainability #EVcharging #evco #utilities

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Since July 2023, BPA has announced 23 major transmission projects, representing an investment of approximately $5 billion. These proposed projects are a crucial part of our strategy to support load growth and meet the increasing demand for transmission services. I recently sat down with Dave Miller on OPB’s “Think Out Loud” to discuss these projects, along with the challenges and opportunities we face in maintaining reliable power and supporting a vibrant Northwest economy. https://lnkd.in/gFn-bsUr

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Yet another bad sign in ERCOT (TX) of potential reliability problems ahead. Yesterday evening 4/16 on a beautiful spring day, power prices jumped to over $4,000/MWh on an 80 degree spring day when solar went from a peak of 14,000 MW to 0 MW and wind went from 23,000 MW in the morning to 5,000 MW in the evening with ERCOT asking for conservation of power throughout the day. So what saved the day? Same as usual natural gas and coal generation went from a combined 16,000 MW in the morning to 43,000 MW to offset the collapse of solar and wind. Said another way, solar and wind went from 50% of the generation for much of the day to 10% in just a few hours while natural gas and coal went from 40% early in the day to over 80% to make up the difference. Many continue to advocate adding intermittent solar and wind generation can replace reliable and dispatchable natural gas and coal generation. The grid will get more unreliable and wild price swing will be unacceptable for most customers. We can much better than this for all U.S. citizens and its economy that relies on reliable power in all hours, not just when the wind blows and the sun shines.

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At the end of the day, we all want reliable, plentiful, and affordable power. Right now many regions are facing unprecedented load growth, dwindling reserve margins and rapid fossil fuel retirements—all leading to insufficient generation resources to keep pace with demand. Clean repowering or the opportunity for new clean energy resources, for example, battery storage, to be developed at existing fossil plants and repurpose the property, utilize the existing interconnection rights, the transmission and supporting infrastructure, and enable these resources to interconnect to the grid faster, at lower cost, and with greater assurance is the answer. A new era needs a new approach…

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Doc Bakey predicts a potential coincident peak day in the PJM Markets with demands expected to reach 149,000 MW. To save on next year's capacity and transmission payments, consider reducing your loads from 3 to 6 PM. Here are some safety tips to beat the heat: - Treat your steering wheel with respect and cool off with a wet towel before touching it. - Wear feet protection on sidewalks, sand, and pool decks to avoid regrets later. - Drink plenty of fluids, like water, before feeling thirsty, especially when outdoors or active. - Spend time in air-conditioned spaces, use blinds to block the sun, and take cool showers to stay cool. - Opt for loose, lightweight, light-colored clothing, a wide-brimmed hat, sunglasses, and sunscreen when outdoors. - Take frequent breaks in the shade or air-conditioned areas during the hottest part of the day. - Stay vigilant for signs of heat-related illnesses and check on family, older adults, neighbors, and pets. Let's stay safe and beat the heat together! #SafetyTips #HeatWave #StayCool #MadEnergyMinute #DocBakey

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