Mark Rourke

With the election settled, I’ve received many inquiries regarding how I anticipate dry van truckload rates will move in 2025. To help answer that, below I’ve charted year-over-year percent change in DAT’s dry van TL spot rate (red) and the BLS’s primary service PPI for general freight trucking, long-distance, truckload (NAICS 484121). Thoughts: •The most profound change that has occurred with these data is that the PPI is now more strongly correlated (albeit with a lag) with spot rates. A decade ago, a 10% year-over-year increase in spot rates would net a ~3% year-over-year increase in the PPI. That relationship appears to have doubled since COVID-19 hit (e.g., a 10% increase in spot rates now gets you a 6% increase in the PPI). •If we assume the shift in the relationship since COVID-19 isn’t due to a unique one-time event but is an underlying product of an environment with much greater information availability, then it would be reasonable to assume this magnitude of relationship will continue. •The question then: how much will spot rates increase? I’ve been on record saying I expect the next bull market cycle to look like 2014 in that I don’t see an increase in trucking ton-miles in 2025 that would be the same pace we saw in late 2017 and early 2018 (not to mention no ELD mandate at work). With that, I’m willing to predict spot rates increase ~15-20% year-over-year by Q3/Q4 2025. That would imply an increase in the BLS PPI by 9-12% year-over-year (but with a lag). That would be the same magnitude of increase in the PPI we saw in 2018. Implication: My best guess basing on looking at underlying demand and supply conditions is dry van spot rates rise 15-20% in 2025 from where they are in 2024 (with those figures being reached in Q3 and Q4 2025). That implies the BLS’s primary service PPI for dry van trucking will rise 9-12% year-over-year, with those gains lagging the spot market changes. #supplychain #supplychainmanagement #freight #trucking #truckload

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Studies completed in 2001 & 2014 showed little improvement for drivers/carriers experiencing detention. But, why would this time be different? Maybe the third time's the charm? Instead of learning the hard way, why not tap into the collective experiences of others in the supply chain? Join the True Load Time network for a real solution that can yield immediate results. With True Load Time, you can gain market intelligence and enjoy transparency - all while increasing road safety. Reach out to your Tenstreet, LLC rep or message me to learn more and get started. Let's achieve VICTORY OVER DETENTION! #TLT #trucking #technologysolutions #transparency #roadsafety #truckdrivers #marketintelligence

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Next week, the STB will take up the issue of growth. Last year, RailState's John Schmitter took to FreightWaves to share his perspective on the continuous talk but lack of action on growth. "For railroads to increase market share and really grow volume, it will require new services and a very different mentality on service performance." https://lnkd.in/gxhQNKKG Do you think anything has changed? What do you expect to hear next week?

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𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭’𝐬 𝐮𝐩 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐚𝐲? 𝐋𝐞𝐭’𝐬 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞 𝐚 𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐯𝐞𝐲 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐚 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐟𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒 👇   In the current market, for-hire fleets continue to be cautious with pay increases, and year-over-year comparisons show that changes in professional driver wages remain minimal.   This is now the longest ongoing freight recession that hasn't coincided with an economic recession, and many fleets remain in a holding pattern with pay until supply and demand dynamics change.   My team and I have been hard at work examining the latest data from The National Transportation Institute's National Survey of Driver Wages. Here are three trends we’ve identified in the survey data and dive into in the NTI blog this week:    ➡️ NTI data shows marginal per-mile pay increases from the same time a year ago for drivers across experience levels.   ➡️ Likewise, while there is still movement in the common per-mile pay ranges for drivers, these changes have slowed and in some cases stalled.   ➡️ Despite the subdued pay gains and challenging market conditions, however, indicators of recruiting activity have remained stable from a year ago, and sign-on and referral bonuses remain at or above where they were throughout the 2021-2022 driver hiring boom.   Looking to dive deeper into driver pay trends and compare your fleet’s compensation package against specific competitors and the industry as a whole? Subscribing to NTI’s National Survey of Driver Wages gives you the power to do just that. 🔗 Contact our team today to learn more: https://bit.ly/3QQ2scR

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🚨 FMCSA Clearinghouse II: What You Need to Know About the Final Rule (86 FR 55718) 🚨 📅 Effective Date: November 18, 2024 Attention employers, CDL drivers, and safety professionals! Big changes are coming to the FMCSA Clearinghouse II with the Final Rule (86 FR 55718) that will impact the way drug and alcohol violations are handled in the trucking industry. 🚚💼 Key Updates You Need to Know: 🔍 State Driver Licensing Agencies (SDLAs) Get Involved Starting November 18, 2024, State Driver Licensing Agencies (SDLAs) will begin removing the commercial driving privileges of any driver with a “prohibited status” in the Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse. This means that drivers with violations like positive drug or alcohol tests, refusals to test, or failing to complete the return-to-duty process will not be able to hold a CDL or commercial learner's permit (CLP). This will block drivers from legally operating commercial vehicles if they have not complied with the necessary procedures, protecting road safety by preventing high-risk drivers from getting behind the wheel. 📝 Expanded Reporting Requirements for Employers Employers will be required to report all drug and alcohol violations to the Clearinghouse, including positive tests, refusals, and return-to-duty processes. This helps create a more transparent and accountable system. 📱 Driver Self-Reporting Drivers will also need to self-report any drug or alcohol violations to the Clearinghouse. This ensures that all driver records are accurate and up-to-date. 🔒 Employer Responsibilities Employers must query the Clearinghouse for each driver before hiring and at least once a year thereafter. This ensures you’re hiring qualified, compliant drivers, minimizing risk for your company and improving safety for everyone on the road. 💡 Why Is This Important? This change will improve safety and accountability by ensuring that only qualified drivers can hold a CDL or CLP, while also streamlining the process of tracking violations and return-to-duty compliance. It’s a major step toward ensuring that unsafe drivers are prevented from getting behind the wheel of a commercial vehicle. 🚨 What Should You Do? Prepare Your Systems: Ensure that your company has the tools to properly query the Clearinghouse and report any violations. Know the Deadline: Ensure compliance by November 18, 2024—drivers with prohibited status will lose their CDL/CLP. We are 12 days away!!! Stay Updated: Check regularly for updates from FMCSA and make sure you’re fully aligned with the new regulations. 📣 Have Questions? Drop them in the comments below or DM us for more information. We're here to help you stay compliant and keep our roads safer! #FMCSA #Clearinghouse #TruckSafety #CDLCompliance #DrugAndAlcoholPolicy #SafetyFirst #Transportation #TruckingNews #CDL #ComplianceMatters #TruckingIndustry #DriverSafety #ClearinghouseII #SDLA #Truckers

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#Interesting and very #DESPERATE times ... if some carriers have embraced the concept of a "Loss Leader" just to keep the doors open. The concept of ... "Yea, we lose a $1 on every sale, but we'll make it up in volume" has #NEVER worked in retail and it definitely won't work here in trucking where it's #NOT $1 per load, but hundreds of dollars per load. I get it that there are some carriers that are just barely staying alive and hoping and praying the #CashFlow will keep them alive to fight another day. But losing money on loads, is #NEVER a good idea, especially when you are struggling. I personally know of one such TL carrier with over 400 trucks out of the Northwest that may not survive the month. I hope and pray that they do, for the sake of the drivers and employees. But when #Leadership is too proud to admit their mistakes, and unwilling to accept the recommendations of those wanting and willing to assist to help the carrier survive ... and even provide those services on a Pro Bono basis (for some that may not know the term, that's for #No #Charge) ... there's not much that friends or associates can do. Anyhow, enough about that ... read the article and I'm sure you'll walk away scratching your head. https://lnkd.in/gsvQDjCb

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Here is your go-to resource for full van truckload (VTL) freight shipping. This guide is foundational for understanding everything you need to know about VTL. Learn about definitions, benefits, and practical tips: http://sndr.pro/5P

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We are less than 100 days to the election, and trucking's future will look very different based on who becomes the next president of the U.S. We can argue all day on what policies are superior, but transportation leaders should prepare for either to win to protect their companies' interests. After looking at what both Donald Trump and presumptive Dem nominee Kamala Harris have said and done, here are a few ways they differ on some of the biggest issues critical to trucking: energy, sustainability, and infrastructure.

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Despite increasing spot market pressure, truckload contract rates continue to fall, highlighting a dynamic shift in the logistics market. Recent data reveals a 3%-5% year-over-year drop in long-term contract rates for dry van truckloads, while spot rates have surged by 5%-6%. This indicates a narrowing gap between spot and contract rates as the market nears bid season. Key Insights: • Contract rate decline: Although declining, contract rates are stabilizing with a slower descent. • Spot market surge: Rising spot rates reflect immediate market demand and short-term fluctuations. • Future contracts outlook: New contracts may experience reduced downward pressure, suggesting potential cost stabilization and market equilibrium. Shippers should closely monitor these trends and consider flexible contracting strategies that balance spot and contract rates. Leveraging data can help anticipate market shifts, optimize routing, and negotiate better rates. Building strong relationships with carriers and exploring diversified transportation options can also enhance resilience against market volatility. Understanding these market shifts is crucial to optimizing pricing strategies and staying competitive in a fluctuating environment. #Logistics #Trucking #SupplyChain

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The Wisconsin semi-tractor industry contends with distinctive challenges, such as fluctuating demand for freight services and the seasonal nature of specific industries. To address this variability, a flexible vendor network is essential. Operators benefit from having access to service providers with the size and scale of Master Fleet. This enables them to promptly secure specialized diesel services, ensuring efficient resolution of any engine issues. #masterfleet #diesel #trailer

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U.S. total weekly volume from the Association of American Railroads for the week ending May 25 was 485,232 - an increase of 1.2% over the same week last year. Carload volume was down 6.9%, and intermodal volume was up 8.9% over the same week in 2023.

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In both elections and supply chain decisions, emotions play a surprising role in driving choices. Studies suggest 70% of people vote based on emotion or perception, while only 30% rely on hard data. #SupplyChain #DecisionMaking #Leadership

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🚛 A major overhaul is coming to LTL freight classification.📦 With the recently announced effective date of July 19, 2025, the National Motor Freight Traffic Association, Inc. will shift a significant number of NMFC codes to a streamlined, density-based model for LTL classification, aimed at simplifying the process and reducing disputes between shippers and carriers. 🔹 What's Changing? The new NMFC model prioritizes density, grouping similar items to make classifications clearer and more consistent. This change is expected to eliminate ambiguity and improve rate predictability for most commodities. 🔹 What Does This Mean for Your Business? Now's the time to ask: Are your current pricing agreements ready for these changes? With a focus on density, many shipments could see a shift in classification. This could lead to potential cost increases or savings, but only if shippers are proactive. Have you reviewed if your commodity codes are in scope for the change to anticipate adjustments? The last thing you want is unexpected pricing changes impacting your margins. 🔹 and for the Carrier Community? Here’s where I think this gets the most interesting. More than 2,000 current NMFC codes are in scope to be moved to density-based classification. Do the carriers have the bandwidth to go to each of these shippers and re-underwrite their shipment profiles? How many even have the capacity to identify their shippers by commodity? Hopefully most, but I am certain it’s not 100%. In the event they do, will they address those where the carrier has “won” and the rate has gone up? Or only correct where it’s gone down? I firmly believe the carriers want a fair rate for a fair service. How we get there in this new environment is what is still left to be seen. Ultimately, this is a productive step forward—just one that leaves many kinks to be worked out. We're closely monitoring these changes as they develop because there's still a lot in flux. Kudos to the NMFTA for starting early conversations to help the industry adjust. If you're wondering how these changes could impact your operations—or if your current rates are at risk—our team is here to guide you through it. #LTL #supplychain #news

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I enjoyed listening to economist Bob Costello share some hopeful news yesterday on the economy's state. While the economy is slowing down, he believes truck freight demand will improve as the market balances out. Here are some key points: Manufacturing has been slow, which has hurt freight volumes, but there are signs of improvement. Private fleets are taking more of the market, creating challenges for for-hire companies. Interest rates and consumer spending are starting to level out, which could help increase demand. While things won’t change overnight, we can expect slow improvement for fleets dealing with these tough times. What do you think the future holds for the freight market? #Trucking #Freight

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The downturn in freight continues unabated. Back in mid-January, I remarked on an earlier-than-expected shift in freight markets. January witnessed a spike in rates owing to widespread weather disruptions across the nation. However, by the end of the quarter, markets had dipped below my projections. It seems like demand has taken a hit, and we're yet to see signs of recovery from the broader economic slowdown. Just this week, JB Hunt and Knight-Swift revised their earnings expectations downward. The next six weeks will offer crucial insights, especially with the upcoming DOT Blitz starting on May 15th. If freight rates fail to pick up, many companies in the industry could face significant challenges. While I maintain that the gap between demand and capacity isn't as wide as the numbers suggest, conversations with industry peers about the overall market are becoming less optimism. https://lnkd.in/gv_C7g-E

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Expected tariff hikes under the new Trump administration has companies looking at short- and long-term strategies to mitigate costs. One short-term solution is to frontload imports, but this could drive up freight rates and likely won’t suit time sensitive-goods. Experts are advising companies to map out potential tariff vulnerabilities within their supply chains, especially with their suppliers. One long-term solution could be diversifying sourcing beyond China since tariff increases are expected. #thefreightarchitects #jaguarfreight #logistics

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