Lauren Picasso

47% of all the revenue growth in existing SKU's in the protein bar market came from Warrior® 📈 Yes, a certain high profile brand leveraged legacy IP to generate solid growth...but their existing SKU's declined so much they were seen in clearance outlets for 99p a bar 🤷‍♂️ Warrior® has by far the strongest "core" range of flavours on the protein bar shelf. Our core range all: ✅️ Sells well (highest UROS on IRI Circana) ✅️ Sells consistently (highest growth from existing SKU's) ✅️ And generates strong repeat revenue for retailers without having to spend hours adjusting planogram (highest frequency of purchase in protein bar market) Putting the core range of Warrior® products on your shelf is a "one and done", it's like buying rental property, kicking off recurring income day after day through sales, that no other brand can match. That's the facts - to learn more and see the data yourself contact us: [email protected] 🔥 Become a Warrior® 🔥 #Warrior #Protein #proteinbars #fmcg #sports #sportsnutrition #fitness #healthysnacking #healthy #lowcarbs #lowsugar #proteinbar #snacking #servicestation #forecourt #forecourtshow #forecourttrader #petrolstation #convenience #conveniencestore #grocer #proteinbar

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Fuzzballs: A Proven, Sustainable Success in a Competitive Market. Fuzzballs is not just another cute brand—it's a thriving, sustainable, and rapidly growing brand that continues to outlast the competition. Over the years, we've had conversations with some of the biggest names in licensing. Interestingly, many of these potential partners initially passed on us, only to launch their own cute brands—only to see them land in bargain bins, forgotten within a year. The reasons behind their failures are clear. Despite the marketing efforts and industry resources poured into these projects, they missed what truly matters: understanding the market, the consumers, and the demand that Fuzzballs has cultivated. Our growth, our dedicated fan base, and our presence in retailers all speak to our staying power. While others struggled to make their mark, Fuzzballs has continued to thrive. We may move at a more deliberate pace with our micro team, but that’s exactly why we’ve been sustainable for years—because we grow with intention and insight. And the best is yet to come. As we look toward 2025, we are gearing up for our biggest product launches yet. Fuzzballs isn’t just a brand; it’s a proven formula for long-term success. Partner with us, and you'll join a brand that’s here to stay, with untapped potential waiting to be unlocked.

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Allbirds reported its third quarter earnings yesterday and while the stock got a modest bump on the report, I am absolutely not liking what I see. Overall, I'm continually frustrated by this brand. There are MANY brands on Iris that are bigger than Allbirds, and they are running their businesses much differently, and much BETTER. So much so, that I propose that we buy the whole thing at $80m. Lets dive in into the earnings 👇 👇 1/ Revenue Allbirds’ revenue continues to shrink. This is not necessarily a problem since they're rightsizing, but YoY revenue shrinkage is actually ACCELERATING from -21% in 3Q23 to -25% in 3Q24 3Q23 Revenue: $57m 3Q24 Revenue: $43m 2/ Gross Margin We saw some 90 basis points of gross margin expansion year-over-year, but still below the IPO point, with no real path to recovery or expansion beyond 3Q21 Gross Margin (IPO Roadshow): 54% 3Q24 Gross Margin: 44% The stock is down 98% since IPO. What's more, Allbirds announced they are moving their international businesses to a distributor model with players like Primer group handle that distribution for huge brands like Birkenstock and The North Face. This limits gross margin upside, a head scratching move - until you dig in a little: CEO Joe Vernachio was the VP of Ops at The North Face from 2011-2017 3/ Marketing OK, fine. Revenue is still shrinking rapidly and margins won’t get better. I can live with that at a reasonable scale. What I have a hard time with is their marketing initiatives that are driving that revenue. You're not going to believe this. The big announcements for marketing plans are..... 🥁 🥁 ....partnering with Marriot Bonvoy and Uber eats. Like they are Lululemon or Costco. I mean seriously, is this a joke? My brother in christ, let’s try facebook ads. Now to the marketing line - where $BIRD spent a modest $10M in the quarter on marketing for an MER of 4.36 and contribution margin ratio of 21%, which is still on a downward trend Contribution Margin Ratios: 3Q21: 34% 3Q24: 21% 4/ Profitability “But Drew, if gross margins and marketing aren’t driving meaningful steps toward profitability, surely they’ve cut their fixed expenses and are profitable by now.” No, of course not. They have cut SG&A expenses meaningfully, from $44m/qtr to $31m in the most recent qtr. The problem is that the cuts aren't fast enough, with sales shrinking faster - causing fixed expenses as a % of rev to shoot UP, at over 70% of sales. Must be those critical teams managing the Uber Eats deal! Overall, Allbirds is an iconic DTC brand and Existing management has it all wrong, coming from legacy operational backgrounds. Did you know Allbirds has 14k followers on TikTok? I mean cmon. Tomorrow we will be doing the full deep dive on allbirds' latest earnings report and my proposal to take the company private in my NEWSLETTER make sure to SUBSCRIBE (pinned to my profile) and I will also be sharing the data used to create the analysis

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Cannabis brands and retailers are trapped in a prisoner's dilemma. Eager to capture consumer attention, retailers and brands are slashing prices and incentivizing budtenders to sell certain products. But at what cost? The relentless downward pressure creates a pricing landscape as stable as a house of cards in a windstorm. The prisoner's dilemma perfectly explains the cannabis industry's current predicament: why two operators might not cooperate rationally in a way that serves their mutual long-term interests. Scenario: Two suspects are arrested and interrogated separately. Each prisoner can either betray the other or remain silent. If both betray: Both serve 2 years If both remain silent: Both serve 1 year If 1 betrays and 1 remains silent: Betrayer goes free, silent one serves 3 years Cannabis Retailers & Brands: ❒ If everyone maintains prices: Industry thrives, profits are sustainable. ❒ If 1 player discounts heavily or pays budtenders: They experience short-term gains, while others lose out. ❒ If everyone discounts: Race to the bottom, industry-wide profit squeeze. It's the same logic that keeps suspects talking in interrogation rooms and now keeps cannabis companies locked in a discount death spiral. What are the things retailers and brands can do? That's exactly what we'll explore with Kurt Kaufmann and Leah Haselhorst from Seed Talent. Thu, Sep 12, 2024 Link in comments!

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***SCORED CONTRACT WITH WALMART TO SELL PRODUCT IN THEIR RETAIL STORES IN U.S. MARKET: 7/5/2024. Serial entrepreneur, Dr. D. Anthony Miles CEO and founder of Miles Development Industries Corporation ® and CMO/Equity Partner of “Safe Drop®” secured a deal with Walmart. The company just signed a lucrative deal with the global retail giant, Walmart. They will be distributing the company’s product. They just signed a lucrative deal with the global retail giant, Walmart. They will be distributing the Safe Drop® product worldwide. The projected sales for Safe Drop® in 2024 is in the billions. The company’s CEO, founder and inventor, Bob Safstrom, the mastermind behind Safe Drop®. and Dr. Miles have secured a vendor contract with Walmart Inc. Safe Drop® will be sold in Walmart’s retail stores around the country. Also they will be selling “Safe Drop®” on Walmart.com. They are both very exited to have secured the deal with Walmart. This gives them the opportunity partner a global and dominant firm like Walmart.

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SUCCESS OR FAILURE? I recently had the opportunity to test my product in the wider public for the first time, and I’m pleased to report it was a significant success!! Here are the top five pieces of feedback that affirmed my confidence in this venture: 1. The Taste: The flavor profile is truly unique. Participants described it as a delightful blend of greens and matcha, complemented by a subtle kick of strawberry—definitely a standout in the greens powder market. 2. Versatility: Many were surprised to learn about the various applications of the product. Stay tuned, as we’re preparing to share some innovative tips on our multi-functional wellness and beauty approach! 3. Ingredient List: Feedback highlighted the novelty of our ingredients, with comments like “It’s like a superfood party in a sachet.” This response reinforces our commitment to offering unique and beneficial components. 4. Convenience: The single-serve sachets received high praise for their practicality. Many women indicated that they appreciate the ease of use, especially with busy lifestyles that leave little time for measuring supplements. 5. Demand: The question that resonated most was, “When can I get my hands on this?” This enthusiasm is incredibly encouraging as we move forward. Receiving such positive feedback from our focus group is invaluable as a founder. I believe strongly in the importance of listening to your audience and incorporating their insights into the development process. This product was born out of a personal need, and my goal is to help women streamline their routines. Your feedback is instrumental in shaping TwoFold into the brand I envision. Thank you to everyone who participated and contributed their thoughts. I look forward to what lies ahead! #Entrepreneurship #ProductDevelopment #MarketResearch #WomenInBusiness #TwoFold

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BIG congrats to the Personal Fav Co. team who launched a truly best-in-class wipe product today, which just so happens to be *ahem* "powered by biom" (more on that below). I was introduced to Stephanie Elias and Hannah Hutton as we were both getting our companies off the ground. We became fast-friends as we are similarly passionate about trying to build awareness around toxic ingredients in products that millions of people use without having any real understanding of what's inside + health implications. It was clear they had exceptionally high standards for product and were not willing to take shortcuts with ingredients (even if 99% of consumers would never know the difference...) I liked that. This is the DNA of a brand you can trust. Fast forward to today: Personal Fav launched PLAY: a pH Matched, Flushable, Biodegradable, Intimacy Wipe that can be used to stay fresh everywhere (above and below the belt). This product launch is also special as its our first collaboration under “powered by biom”, a new B2B offering we have rolled out to help other brands and businesses produce sustainable wipe products without plastic and toxic ingredients. For brands out there who are interested in bringing a new wipe product to market, or refining a current SKU -- shoot us a note. We are happy to share our capabilities and resources -- or simply offer advice.

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Yesterday, Helen & Troy (ticker $HELE) a public conglomerate that owns brands like Hydro Flask & Revlon announced its acquisition of nail care brand Olive & June for $240m Olive & June is a near $100m nail care brand that has exploded onto the scene. Let's dive into the deal 👇 Olive & June was founded in 2013 by Sarah Gibson Tuttle as a nail salon in LA. In 2019, she launched nail care products and is expected to hit $92m in 2024 revenue playing in categories like nail polish, fake nails, and nail care - a market worth $2.3B. The brand benefitted from the COVID tailwind of everyone trying out DIY nails, with nail salons closed all over the country. Further, $HELE has disclosed the following metrics related to growth: - 2019 - $2m - 2024 - $92m - 2019-2023 CAGR: 144% - T3 year CAGR: 26% Putting all of those pieces together, it seems like Olive & June could have gone from $2m in 2019 sales to almost $50m just a few years later during COVID. This growth is obviously exceptional, and O&J decided it was time to cash in. They hired bankers earlier this year to run an auction process, which $HELE ultimately won out on - paying $225m + $15m earnout for a total deal value of $240m. $225m is cash at close 😱 $HELE paid the following multiples for the asset: - 2.6x sales - 11x EBITDA From a comparable transactions perspective, this is pretty vanilla. When I stacked Olive & June's exit multiples against a broader comp set of ~50 consumer M&A transactions, the valuation multiples were almost perfectly with the median, and for beauty theyre a bit on the low end. It's clear that $HELE, in the midst of its own turnaround, is trying to expand categories. It has experience in beauty with its Drybar, Revlon, Curlsmith, and other properties, but those are mostly to do with hair care. Olive & June represents a 'bold' move into a new emerging category with incremental distribution options. On the call this morning, $HELE said they expect O&J to experience 'double digit growth for the foreseeable future.' All in all, it feels healthy to see some more consumer M&A over the last couple months, especially another one in the lower 9 figure range. 2025 seems to be shaping up to be positive. In a few hours, I will be sending out the full deep dive on the $HELE acquisition of Olive & June in my newsletter Subscribers get exclusive access to deeper analysis, as well as data I use to perform analysis so make sure to subscribe at the link pinned to my profile if you're someone who wants to sharpen their finance mind within the consumer goods industry 😁

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I think many dispensaries are missing some important consumer trends from the grocery industry. What can we learn by looking at the customer values that lead people to choose their favorite place to grocery shop? Whole Foods: 1. Quality and Organic Products 2. Health and Wellness 3. Ethical Sourcing 2023 Annual Revenue $574.79 Billion 2023 Gross Profit $93.80 Billion 2023 Annual Net Income $30.43 Billion 2023 Annual Revenue Growth 11.83% Stores: 500+ Erewhon: 1. Holistic and Organic Focus 2. Sustainability 3. Health-Conscious Community 2023 Annual Revenue $253.3 Million 2023 Annual Growth Rate 65% Stores: 10 Grocery Outlet: 1. Value and Affordability 2. Variety 3. Surprise Finds 2023 Annual Revenue $3.97 Billion 2023 Net Income $79.4 Million 2023 Annual Revenue Growth 10.9% Stores: 440 WinCo Foods: 1. Low Prices 2. Employee Owned 3. Wide Range of Products 2023 Annual Revenue $9.5 Billion Stores: 137 Safeway: 1. Convenience 2. Quality and Selection 3. Loyalty Programs 2023 Annual Revenue $501 Billion 2023 Annual Revenue Growth 8.2% Stores: 920 Everyone needs to buy groceries, and yet there are vastly different consumer segments for the many different grocery chains. Each grocery store chain appeals to different consumer values and priorities, whether it's organic and sustainable products, affordability, convenience, or a wide range of choices. Understanding these values helps each chain cater effectively to its target audience. Cannabis is a consumable agricultural product similar to groceries, and many consumers shop for cannabis weekly. One Thing All these Stores Have In Common? They All Have An Organic and Natural Products Section! Which customer shops at your dispensary? What do they value? We here at Sol Spirit feel we are most aligned with Whole Foods and Erewhon Shoppers. Notice that these two stores experienced the highest revenue growth rates in 2023, and Whole Foods tops the list for annual revenue. What Dispensaries in California are targeting these consumers? We also think that there should be an "organic section" at all dispensaries. People are used to this, even Grocery Outlet separates its organic options and groups them together so people who are interested in that can find it easily. Yet almost zero dispensaries do this. Why is that? Why not give shoppers the option in a visible way that they recognize from the grocery store? I would love to hear folks thoughts on this. If you would like to attract a more upscale, discerning customer, what are you doing to be more like Erewhon or Whole Foods? I feel like there are tons of dispensaries doing the Grocery Outlet model, whether they think of themselves that way or not. The most important thing is that you do know which customer you are trying to attract, and then cater to their values, right? Where are all the retail experts? Please share your insight! Pedro M. Fonseca Chelsea Mulligan Maisha Bahati Jason Pitts

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This is where DTC is today: $200m revenue All Birds trading at negative enterprise value. All Birds has $87m of cash + $53m of inventory and basically no debt but has only a market cap of $102m. Even though the business still does $200m+ in revenue a year, it's still declining ~25% YoY, and losing $19m a quarter.

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Introducing Pear Consumer Circle: Empowering Early-Stage Consumer Founders We’re thrilled to unveil the Pear Consumer Circle, a dynamic community crafted for early-stage consumer founders who are navigating the unique challenges of building and scaling consumer companies. This initiative is the brainchild of my partner, Warren Shaeffer, a seasoned entrepreneur who has founded three companies and deeply understands the hurdles faced by consumer startups. Our inaugural in-person event will take place on August 21st at Pear Studio in San Francisco, featuring an exclusive fireside chat with Sam Chaudhary, co-founder and CEO of ClassDojo. ClassDojo is a transformative D2C platform that has won the hearts of over 50 million parents and students worldwide. This is just the beginning—future events will spotlight visionary leaders like Eddy Lu, co-founder and CEO of @GOAT, Charlie Cheever, co-founder of Quora, and Vlad Tenev, co-founder and CEO of Robinhood, among others. How to Get Involved: -Join Us on August 21st: If you’re in the Bay Area and believe you’re a great fit for this community, we’d love to have you. Sign up using the link below and be part of a transformative evening. - Online Community: We’re also launching an exclusive online community for consumer founders. Given the focus on quality engagement, space is currently limited to those who have raised a pre-seed round. If you’re interested, please comment below to express your interest. -Explore PearX: For early-stage founders looking for comprehensive support, don’t miss PearX, our boutique accelerator program. Applications open on August 20th, and this year we’re running a dedicated track for B2C and B2B2C founders. Pear VC The Pear Consumer Circle is more than just a network—it’s a launchpad for the next generation of consumer innovators. We’re excited to build this community with you and look forward to helping you scale new heights. Registration page for the in-person event: https://lu.ma/6168bxbf

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Worth checking out for any companies at the right stage.

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Micro-influencers at scale. If you have a lower AOV product (say <$50) and your product is good, some amazing work you can do to scale micro-influencers. Exchange free product for a UGC video post. You get 1) great organic lift by having hundreds or thousands of people talking about your brand on social. And 2) you build up an incredible library of ad creatives that you can run in your social ad campaigns. I’ve tested many 3rd party groups to help me manage this. My two favorites by far are Statusphere and Stack Influence. Both deliver high quality micro-influencers and both can scale up with your needs. For Viori we do about ~300 deals per month across these 2 platforms. Give your micro-influencers a little bit of direction on creative, but mostly allow them the freedom to do their best work. Treat them like “creators” more than “influencers.” I can tell you firsthand that there are some INCREDIBLE micro-influencers out there who, from a creative standpoint, are every bit as creative and can create a UGC asset that is just as effective as any traditional social media influencer. Not every micro-influencer deal is going to knock it out of the park for you but that’s okay. It’s a numbers game. DON'T DO THIS if your product sucks. It will produce negative outcomes that get out of your control.

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In 2003, Mike Kirban was skating around NYC selling coconut water. 20 years later, that same product is set to hit $500 million in sales. 🥥 This is the Vita Coco story. The product is simple - some may even call it a commodity. But, branding, story telling and the right marketing allowed this Verlinvest portfolio company to win. This story will show that brands are built with patience, hustle and heart. In 2003, co-founders Michael Kirban and Ira Liran met 2 Brazilian women at a bar. Ira ended up falling in love with one of them and moved to Brazil🇧🇷 Later, during one of Mike’s visits, Ira convinced him to partner up to start selling coconut water in the US. Vita Coco was born! They scraped together $75,000 and bought two containers of coconut water; only to realize that they didn’t have FDA clearance to import them. But that didn’t stop them – They re-exported them to the Bahamas and flew there to sell through the product door-to-door. Mike was everywhere—skating through NYC in the morning, doing store demos in the afternoon and then bookkeeping at night. That’s the real founder hustle :) Meanwhile, Zico, a better-funded competitor, was emerging, setting the stage for the "coconut water wars." It’s around this time that Verlinvest realized we wanted to have a share of the coco-war, and ended up investing $2M. At the time, Vita Coco had not even hit $1M in sales yet. The momentum continued. In 2010, the brand raised a $5M celebrity from celebs like Madonna and Matthew McConaughey. Today, this is common - but at that time it was path breaking. Suddenly, they had the megaphone they needed to build massive brand awareness 🫡 Through the years, their distinct branding and marketing strategy allowed them to stand out on shelves across the world. In 2021, Vita Coco went public, raising $172M. Now, they’re on their way to clock $500M in sales :) From no business plan to building one of the biggest global beverage companies, the story of Michael and Ira building brand in a category like coconut water is one that’s always amazed me. In a lot of cases in consumer products, the product isn’t necessarily the moat. Success comes from brand and a relentless hustle - the willingness to roll with the punches. I’ve always said - the best way to start is to start. You will end up figuring out a lot on the way. I love the product. Have you tried Vita Coco? Do you think there is a case to build such a large coconut water brand in India? PS: Thinking of sharing more stories of our global Verlinvest portfolio like this. Thoughts? #business #entrepreneurship #founder

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Interesting POV from Rachel Cheatham, PhD. Here is my "general view" add. Brands are brands. They need both household penetration & distribution reach and also ongoing consumer & shopper marketing to increase the chances of purchase against that reach. Nowadays, the larger national retailers can do both with their own brands. Private label brands are no longer just value or economy brands. Many are indistinguishable from "traditional brands" from a performance, naming and packaging-look perspective. The description "private label" is probably not that relevant anymore. You have retailer-agnostic brands and retailer-specific brands. Retailers can deploy their own brands to address both large slow growing consumer demand segments and also smaller niche but high growth segments. The reason they can do this is that the Dollar margin flow per case for that retailer can be 10-15% higher than that derived from a non-retailer brand...even if: a) that retailer brand is 25% cheaper on the shelf and even if b) the retailer COGS due to co-packing is 30% higher and even if c) that retailer invests similar levels of trade & shopper marketing spend for their own brand. So why are not all brands retailer-owned? There is a beneficial and symbiotic relationship (in the retailer's favor) in offering an assortment of familiar and trending brands. There is also a new dynamic in place that will ensure the appropriate balance between private label and traditional brands. This dynamic involves the rapid rise of retailer media networks and the SIGNIFICANT margin Dollars that retailers derive from that. Those golden eggs are laid by the retailer-agnostic brands (Emerging + Established) that facilitate that. #privatelabel #emergingbrands #retailmedianetworks #grocery

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Ep. 6 of paperboy ventures hit inboxes earlier this week... This week's feature --> Winnie Lou Winnie Lou is a clean pet treat brand using only real, whole food ingredients. Products feature wild, grass-fed proteins including bison, boar, elk, and venison. All details can be found in the paperboy newsletter, including: -Overview of investment opportunity -Discount code to try Winnie Lou products -Ability to connect with Winnie Lou CEO Link to subscribe in comments below ⬇ Special h/t to Ashlin Cook. Congrats on all the success thus far! #cpg #funding #entrepreneurship #startups 

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Kicking off the next chapter of my CEO journey with Good Twin—one of the top-selling, fastest-growing non-alcoholic wines in the U.S.! 🍇 Yep, it’s the “good twin” that actually tastes like its alcoholic counterpart. 👬 My non-alc journey started 7+ years ago, from building NA options at ZX Ventures to bringing Corona Cero Sunbrew to life globally at AB InBev. This space pulled me in professionally and personally—weekend trips to Spirited Away and Boisson came routine in my own quest for balance. But let's be real: most NA wines taste like grape or apple juice, or worse—an overly engineered “wine” with mile-long ingredient lists. BAD twins, to put it lightly. Good Twin changes all of that. It’s crafted from the same grapes used in traditional Prosecco, sourced directly from Italy, with only four ingredients and 100% organic. It’s fundamentally different—and it’s actually GOOD. If you're intrigued by the NA space as a consumer, investor, broker, retailer, influencer, marketer or otherwise, let’s talk! The category’s booming, but we’re growing even faster—and we'd love to have you on board for the journey. 🚀 Here’s to a world with healthier options, more choice, and more GOOD! 🥂 Available to on and off-premise through major beverage distributors (RNDC, Union, Opici, etc.) and digitally on Airgoods & Faire. Available to consumers at www.drinkgoodtwin.com, 300+ Whole Foods nationwide, Pavilions CA, Safeway CA and more.

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We’re excited to share that ‘olent’ is now officially trademarked with the USPTO! 🎉 This is a significant milestone for us, as it not only protects our brand identity but also paves the way for future growth and expansion. Trademarking gives us the exclusive rights to the ‘olent’ name, helping us stand out in the competitive home fragrance industry while safeguarding our reputation. To all entrepreneurs and small business owners—protecting your brand is essential! Don’t overlook the importance of securing a trademark. #Trademark #SmallBusiness #olent #BrandProtection #BusinessGrowth

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