Abraham Kamarck

I am disappointed (but not surprised) to learn of the decisions by Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD) and Congressman Gregory Meeks (D-NY) to release their respective holds on the $18B F-15 fighter jet sale to Israel that was in tiered review, and would expect this case to be formally notified to Congress in time for the 15-day notification period to have passed by the time war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu addresses Congress on July 24th. I encourage members of the U.S. Senate to introduce a Joint Resolution of Disapproval (JRD) to attempt to block this sale. Though the historical track record demonstrates that no such measure has ever been enacted or succeeded in blocking an arms transfer, a well-timed JRD may at least enable the Senate to resume the robust floor debate on U.S. military support to Israel that it had been carrying out in the context of the supplemental appropriations process. I caution senior decision-makers within the U.S. Government, and officials at the F-15 manufacturer Boeing Defense, Space & Security that the authorization and ultimate delivery of this system to Israel given what is manifestly evident about the conduct of the IDF in Gaza, and what is being charged via the ICJ and ICC, may create personal legal exposure for them, and that the nature of this exposure does not come with an expiration date, and may be chargeable under universal jurisdiction at courts in third countries. The same, of course, applies even more particularly to authorizations for arms that have been issued and executed against during the past eight months, and for as long as Israel's operation in Gaza continues. There is an urgent need to reform the oversight of arms transfers, and to provide Congress with a tool to prevent them that, unlike the JRD process which has never worked, and unlike the Tiered Review process which continues to fray at its edges, is actually effective. One such proposal was made in the National Security Powers Act (NSPA) bill previously sponsored by Senators Chris Murphy, Bernie Sanders and Mike Lee, which would have required a positive vote of approval for major arms transfers, rather than a veto-proof majority against. However, the NSPA would not have included Israel in the group of countries for which such an approval was required, and it is clear that at this time absolute majorities in Congress continue to back sending arms to a country that uses them to willfully slaughter children - and then intends to celebrate the architect of that slaughter. This remains a moment of deep shame for our country, a moment future generations will look back on in horror. And a moment that will demand accountability for as long as we remember it. https://lnkd.in/eba_Z4jr

544

38 Comments

A few thoughts on Haniyeh's assassination. No confirmation yet if it was Israel that killed Haniyeh and if it was through an airstrike. But if it was, the assassination provides Netanyahu several benefits beyond the obvious goal of taking out Haniyeh in response to Oct 7: 1. It kills the ceasefire talks: Netanyahu has systematically sabotaged ceasefire talks because ending the war will likely end his political career. The signal he got from Kamala Harris was that she would not be as unforgiving as Biden has been of Netanyahu's obstinance. The assassination buys Netanyahu several weeks, if not months, in which there will be no serious expectation of a ceasefire deal. Thus, the war will continue, as will Netanyahu's reign as Prime Minister. 2. It may kill renewed US-Iran diplomacy: Pezeshkian campaigned on a platform of renewed US-Iran diplomacy. But with tensions heightening following the assassination, his chances to create a diplomatic opening with the US have been shut close, at least for now. Israel has opposed US-Iran diplomacy since the early 1990s, and creating political crises that raise the cost of starting talks has been the most effective way to prevent diplomacy.  3. It may get Netanyahu the war he's been looking for: The attack has been deeply embarrassing to Tehran. It has destroyed Iran's claim that it restored deterrence vis-a-vis Israel following Israel's bombing of Iran's consulate in Damascus on April 1. It has signaled Iran's allies that they are not safe - not even in Tehran - and that Iran cannot protect them. Iran is, as a result, very likely to retaliate. As a result, Netanyahu has likely triggered an escalatory spiral that can result in a full-scale regional war that likely will drag the US into it as well. The calculation is that such a war will destroy and/or degrade many of Israel's enemies and establish a new balance in the region that restores Israel's dominance and freedom to maneuver. Israel cannot establish such a balance on its own, but the calculation is that the US can. 4. It corners Kamala Harris: As I mentioned, Harris has signaled that she will adopt a tougher line against Netanyahu. But if Netanyahu manages to start a regional war before she potentially becomes President, Netanyahu will not only have forced the US into the war but also cornered Harris and removed her ability to adopt a tougher line against Israel. Biden voluntarily (and foolishly) bear-hugged Biden. Through the assassination and its consequences, Netanyahu may be able to force Harris to bear hug him. As a reminder: If Biden had forced a ceasefire early on, all of this - including the risk of the US getting dragged into another senseless war in the Middle East - would have been avoided.

142

20 Comments

We are living in a world that embodies our Industrial Transformation & Supply Chain Technology investment thesis at REFASHIOND Ventures: The Industrial Transformation Fund: Escalating Geopolitical Tensions & Great Power Competition; The Climate Crisis & Severe Weather; Consumer Behavior & Demographics. Join us. #IndustrialTransformation #SupplyChain #Innovation #Technology #Startups #VentureCapital

2

https://lnkd.in/gT6g_SuZ In this episode of Insights, we delve into Armenia's recent acquisition of advanced self-propelled Caesar 155mm howitzers from France. We explain why obtaining these elite artillery systems, renowned as some of the best in the world, significantly strengthens Armenia's defense capabilities

6

"Going back to George Washington this nation has been warned of the risks of entangling alliances, of what happens when our foreign policy, our interests, are sublimated to the interests of others. Yes, alliances are critical to America in this day as much as in any other if not more, and yet there are alliances of equals, there are alliances of interests, and there are alliances that subvert interests. I do fear that that is what we are talking about when we are talking about today's relationship between the United States of America and Israel." I was honored to speak at a salon held by the Committee for the Republic at the Metropolitan Club in Washington, D.C., about the U.S.-Israel alliance and my observations on the warping effects of politics within the bureaucracy and policymaking spaces of American government. As I told the salon, what "we have is not a policy problem: it is a political problem. It is a problem of our politics, it is a problem of the particularly political economic incentives provided to our politicians. And until we address it through politics (as problematic I would say is the current system we have, particularly since Citizens United), it is a problem that we are going to be stuck with and it is a problem that is a threat not only to the lives of the Palestinians and to the interests of America overseas but also to the interests of Americans here at home..." That is why, as I explained, I and other colleagues have recently "rolled out a new initiative called A New Policy... that is focused on this issue of US policy towards Israel and Palestine on a nonpartisan basis and on the premise that what we are doing is not in the American interest - it is not in line with American values either. And this is not ultimately a question that should be driven by a question of whether we are aligned with Israel or against Israel, this is a question about our own interests, our own values, and that is what ultimately should be driving our foreign policy." You can watch the entire Salon online here: https://lnkd.in/eKHV2gJZ

218

11 Comments

Interesting article because in order to have peace through strength, defense budgets need to stay strong. European defense budgets will likely rise since Trump will pressure them to meet their commitments. Also, the article points out that UK defense budgets probably won’t rise much. UK defense companies have little EU exposure. Having just lived in the UK for two years, I agree. The UK is out of money. The current government is prioritizing spending on social programs and infrastructure. I expect a budget crisis in the UK in the next couple of years that might topple the government and force a no confidence vote.

2

I share here a post showing the wise and powerful approach of the U.S. DoS that consolidate in a very strong and pertinent way my high interest in tech diplomacy in general and especially in cyber diplomacy.

17

Navigating the Path to Peace: The Imperative for Change in Israel-Palestine Relations Turki Faisal Al Rasheed comments at The Washington Post #Washingtonpost Israel is currently navigating a perilous path marked by violence and ongoing occupation. For the sake of stability, it is essential to uphold the rule of law, end military occupation, and engage in a peace process facilitated by neutral mediators. Strengthening diplomatic ties within the Middle East and adhering to international law are vital for Israel's future. The current trajectory poses a threat to the foundational vision of a peaceful Jewish state. Israeli leadership must confront the reality that victory over Palestinian resistance is increasingly unattainable. History demonstrates that occupied peoples will persistently strive for independence, rendering sustained oppression unsustainable. The cycle of violence among Palestinians stems from failed peace efforts and Israel's continuous annexation of territory. Achieving genuine peace necessitates addressing the occupation and establishing a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders. The recent conflict in Gaza underscores the risks of prioritizing military solutions over diplomatic engagement. It is more prudent for Israel to manage a weakened Hamas than to allow chaos akin to that seen in Somalia. The ongoing suffering of the Palestinian people calls for a comprehensive withdrawal from occupied territories. A thorough examination of the financial dynamics surrounding these events is essential for a deeper understanding. While mainstream narratives may favor an Israeli perspective, it is crucial to recognize the significant influence wielded by the extreme right-wing factions within Israel, whose actions may inadvertently lead to their decline. The detrimental decisions made by these extremist groups have had far-reaching consequences for the Jewish community. Ultimately, the best resolution to this crisis would involve both Israel and Palestine, with encouragement from the international community, committing to uphold international law. It is regrettable that while the United States advocates for peace, it simultaneously provides military support and legal protections to extreme right-wing Israeli governments, which may undermine its global influence and hasten the decline of its dominance. @TurkiFRasheed @washingtonpost @PostOpinions @IgnatiusPost https://lnkd.in/dP6Ws4DD

1

4/24/24 Korean News and Commentary https://conta.cc/3QEMDpl 1. Pentagon stresses close consultation with S. Korea after simulated N.K. 'nuclear counterattack' drill 2. N. Korea sends economic delegation to Iran: KCNA 3. HRNK Quoted 12 Times in the U.S. Department of State's DPRK 2023 Human Rights Report 4. N.K. leader's sister slams joint S. Korea-U.S. military drills 5. S. Korea's nanosatellite launched from New Zealand for satellite constellation project 6. S. Korea warns N. Korea will face end of regime if it uses nuclear weapons 7. Korea's spy agency set to join NATO-led cyber defense drill for 4th straight year 8. South Korea needs to recharge foreign engagement following missed trips and opportunities 9. President should recalibrate his policy on North Korea 10. Seoul publishes latest edition of financial handbook for N. Korean defectors 11. Alarm sounded over major North Korean hacks 12. North Korea Continues to Rattle Sabers with Short-Range Missiles Launches 13. North Korea sends officials to Iran amid suspected military cooperation 14. Students, residents pressed into North Korean construction projects 15. Yoon says N. Korea must not dare challenge S. Korea 16. N. Korea calls envisioned US aid to Ukraine 'hallucinogen' 17. N. Korea encourages Chinese businesspeople to resume commercial activities 18. Abuse of opium remains a problem in N. Korea amid economic downturn

1

Last month, Washington State Governor Jay Inslee & Governor Ruslan Kravchenko signed an ambitious new Sister State Agreement between Washington State and Kyiv Oblast, the first between a US state and a region of Ukraine. I got the chance to write about this moment and how my home state of Washington is leading the way on subnational diplomacy in support of Ukraine. Read more in #UkraineAlert ⤵️ https://lnkd.in/eAbvnyt3

25

In a significant shift, Israel and Iran are now engaging directly, moving beyond decades of proxy warfare. Recent Israeli strikes demonstrate advanced capabilities in missile and air defense, marking a pivotal change in regional dynamics. With two key pillars of Iran's strategy weakened, the Middle East's power balance is evolving rapidly. 👉 Read this excellent new article for an in-depth analysis of what this means for the future. #MiddleEast #Defense #IsraelIran

20

Text of my small contribution to the QUincy Institute Symposium on Nato's future Anne Kraatz The best development for NATO that one should wish for, I believe (even if the odds against its happening appear daunting at present), is that it should return to its fundamentals: Prevent war, in accordance to its obligation not just to defend all the signatories of the treaty but also to commit itself, in the words of the treaty, “not to enter into any international commitments that conflicted with the treaty” and to adhere “to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations.”  The U.N. Charter states, as its first objective, “to maintain international peace and security” and “uphold international law.” In other words, in a more perfect world, NATO should work toward peace and not toward managing conflicts solely through military means in the future.  Unfortunately, how NATO probably will develop and change is a very different matter. In his new strategic concept presented at the Madrid Summit in June 2022, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg set out five points for the development of NATO. Only one of these, “taking a global outlook,” was really “new.” This “global outlook” involves extending the treaty’s mandate exponentially. NATO would develop into a supranational organism with tentacles reaching into many corners of the world, if not all.  On the other hand, a new generation of populist politicians in the United States and Europe will probably not want to take such a “global outlook” but will retreat, if trends are anything to go by, to their own shores in the perhaps-mistaken idea that conflicts here and there will not affect them directly.  However, the same conflicts ongoing now might already have escalated to the extent that, even a generation ahead, their consequences will instead produce a general desire to project strength, whatever the human consequences. Thus, European nations will have rearmed and retrained their military and will possibly no longer accept the sole leadership of the U.S. in NATO affairs. It will then take a very astute politician to rein in everyone’s power instincts: Failing the presence of such a man or woman, NATO could actually break apart amidst exacerbated rivalries, including economic ones, and conflicting nationalist postures and interests. Anne Kraatz is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Quincy Institute. She was a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Open Diplomacy in Paris For the full text of the other contributors to the Symposium: https://lnkd.in/g7UGKH7Q

Action Alert - Tell Congress #NoRecessForGaza Yesterday the Biden Administration notified Congress of over $20 Billion in proposed arms transfers to Israel, but the notification fell into a well of silence, as Congress is on recess until September 5th. But even while Members and Senators are out - campaigning, working in their districts, or taking a vacation, the children of Gaza continue to suffer. Congress may be on recess, but it can't take a break from addressing this catastrophe and America's role in it. That's why I'm supporting The Arms Sales Accountability Project's campaign #NoRecessForGaza. We need our elected officials to keep speaking up even when they're not in Washington - and when they return, to be ready to go to take action on blocking further lethal arms transfers, restoring funding to UNRWA, and pressing for an immediate and permanent ceasefire. Click the link below to learn more about this campaign and what you can do to tell your elected officials that if the children of Gaza can't have a break, neither should they. https://lnkd.in/e6mZreFG The Arms Sales Accountability Project (ASAP) is a shared effort of multiple NGOs including the Center for Civilians in Conflict; Amnesty International USA; Middle East Democracy Center; Win Without War; The Stimson Center; Human Rights Watch; Center for International Policy; Quincy Institute; Forum on the Arms Trade; Friends Committee on National Legislation; Office of Peacebuilding and Policy; The United Methodist Church and The Project On Government Oversight. All of these organizations have been doing outstanding advocacy work on Gaza these past ten months. Learn more about it here: https://lnkd.in/et9UQH58

347

30 Comments