John Golden

"Burn, baby, burn. That's a beautiful thing," This is the (in)famous line from an Enron trader that was caught on tape and made headlines when the company was celebrating California forest fire, so that they can make more money. ( https://lnkd.in/grEwRHCJ ) Reading the below Bloomberg article celebrating that “US oil production will increase by 600,000 more barrels per day in 2025, 50% more than 2024” , it feels that now the country supposed to be leading the world is singing the same “Burn baby burn”, this time for the earth burning. Since 1850 US historically has emitted 509GtCo2, which is 20% of the global emission, far surpassing China’s cumulative 11%. Now when the biggest emitter who is supposed to be leading the world in reaching Net Zero, is celebrating that they will continue to emit and to burn the earth. What is the earth’s future, this is a collective question for all. #burnbabyburn Oil Was Written Off. Now It’s the Most Productive US Industry https://lnkd.in/gJ2mV4zP

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Jake Dollarhide, CEO, LONGBOW ASSET MANAGEMENT, TULSA, OKLAHOMA “It was the worst kept secret on the planet that the Fed was not going to cut in July. The Fed is going to have its day in the sun in September with a 25 or 50 basis point cut, but I would not be surprised if that is already priced into stocks. We may actually see the market down significantly the day the Fed actually cuts rates in September.” (This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security.) CNBC CNBC Overtime CNBC International The Wall Street Journal The New York Times New York Post The University of Tulsa: Collins College of Business The University of Tulsa Tulsa Remote Rotary Club of Tulsa City of Tulsa Tulsa Regional Chamber Bloomberg Reuters University of Oklahoma Rotary International Oklahoma State University Oklahoma State University-Tulsa The University of Tulsa Graduate School Gathering Place Student Investment Fund The University of Tulsa Tulsa World Media Company The Oklahoman NYSE Federal Reserve Board Federal Reserve Bank of New York YMCA of Greater Tulsa YMCA of the USA (National Resource Office) World YMCA Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ICE 36 Degrees North Tulsa Innovation Labs Friends of the Katy Trail Harwood International Lobeck Taylor Family Foundation

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Oil prices edged up today Monday due to optimism about increased summer fuel demand. Brent crude futures rose 0.20% to $79.77 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased by 0.10% to $75.63 a barrel. However, gains were limited by a stronger dollar, which followed better-than-expected U.S. job data. Analysts predict that robust summer demand will tighten the market, potentially pushing crude prices to mid-$80s per barrel in Q3 2024.

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My latest Substack post analyzes $XOM once again catching $TSLA in terms of market cap. Last 5 qtrs: $XOM returned ~$40bb to shareholders via divvies, buybacks. $TSLA: $0.00 That is what really matters. But the key to investing is the second derivative, and as EV sales slow (good for demand for oil, obvs, and for $XOM) I fail to see the Silver Bullet for $TSLA. Why? Because Elon let his product line get old. No amount of robotaxi/FSD necromancy is going to change that. Trade accordingly. Excelsior! --Jim

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Natural gas inventories continue to remain elevated If you’ve invested in natural gas or natural gas companies, be aware that inventories of natural gas in domestic storage at the end of June was 19% above the five-year average. I do expect this to change as time goes on, but in the meantime, with an abundance of natural gas it would be hard for the price to move much higher. If the excess inventories continue it would be more likely to see a decline in the price for natural gas. This would hurt the profits for natural gas companies. #naturalgas #economy #useconomy #naturalgascompanies #gascompanies #investing #investors #stocks #stockmarket

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Services Index from Dallas Fed moved up to -2.6 in September vs. -7.7 in August … revenue, employment, and capex components all increased (still in expansion); wages and benefits eased a bit but still expanding … 6-month outlook improved sharply 

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Our new series: “CONVERSATIONS FROM THE @CBOE FLOOR” will be all about EDUCATION. THE 🥐RUMBS… We will look to pull back the veil on the options industry, DEMOCRATIZING & DEMYSTIFYING what’s actually going on behind the scenes. I couldn’t think of a better place to begin than @CBOE’s exclusive, industry-insider-only RMC conference. In this initial episode we’ve curated some of the most important topics going on in Optionsland right now, brought to you by some of the foremost experts. ————————————————— ⁃The election & what option markets are seeing ⁃The boom in options based ETF’s + structured products ⁃The evolution & opportunities in 0 DTE trading ————————————————— 👂 IN & ✅ IT OUT…👇👇👇👇👇👇

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What's the best time to extend duration when rates start to come down and curves start to "disinvert"? Should you "T-bill and chill" until the central bank pulls the trigger and starts cutting, or is the juice all squeezed out of longer yields at that point? It’s a relevant question as more and more central banks start cutting rates, particularly for economies such as Iceland where policy rates are probably some distance above neutral. Thankfully, there’s a highly relevant and recent case study. A group of mostly EM economies with a thorny inflation history hiked rates early and fast in 2021, which helped bring inflation under control fairly quickly and allowed for rate cuts as early as last summer. I tried to search for clues based on the experience of these EM early hikers in a note to clients earlier this week (see link for a great summary by the editor of Innherji Hörður Ægisson: https://lnkd.in/ggNiP9sV). The average policy rate in these economies rose by 960bps, but has been cut by 290bps since last summer. During that period, 10Y yields rose on average 630bps, but have since rallied by 210bps. In other words, there is pretty strong transmission up the curve from the policy rate, leaving some interesting ways to play duration… which just leaves the question of timing. Here’s where things get interesting: On average, most of the rally in longer term yields takes place in around 300 trading sessions *before* the first cut. So far, there has been very little tightening of long yields *after* rate cuts commence. In other words, the rally tends to be driven by the end of hiking cycles, more than by the start of cutting cycles – when the cuts finally start, chances are there’s not a whole lot of juice left in longer term yields. Of course there’s no guarantee this pattern will be repeated, but it does support my gut feeling that the way to play policy normalisation is to be fairly discerning about placement on the curve, rather than blindly loading up on duration (even more so in markets where term premia have been eviscerated by QE).

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New or smaller VC, PE or HF manager? AUM less than $50 million? Great Performance? Trying to raise assets? Struggling and failing?   Sounds all too familiar: It’s due to poor or non-existent marketing Let’s get real about raising assets for “sub-institutional” managers, those with AUM between $0 and $50 million. IT’S HARD AND A STRUGGLE.   Raising assets in a crowded, hyper-competitive, complex and complicated market from investors that are risk averse, stringently selective and idiosyncratically demanding is more challenging and difficult than most new and sub-institutional managers understand. The fact is the majority of sub-institutional managers fail to get AUM beyond personal capital long with small amounts from family and friends even when they have exceptional performance. Plainly speaking: There is a lot of BS, hype, propaganda and completely wrong information about marketing and fundraising for small managers with AUM less than $50 million Since 2011, Johnson & Company has specialized in meeting the marketing challenges for "sub-institutional" managers. 25+ years experience, expertise and skill uniquely equips a new or smaller manager with the FACTS and proven structured, disciplined and focused PROCESS supported by independent high-integrity data and research, accurate information, objective insight, expert instruction and frontline intelligence that optimizes marketing process execution to maximize the success, efficiency, economy, expedience and effectiveness of raising assets. If you’re a new or smaller manager, with AUM less than $50 million struggling and failing to raise assets, first get the facts: https://johnsn.com/facts If after your review of the “FACTS”, you’d like a candid, no-nonsense conversation about marketing and raising assets, contact me, I welcome the opportunity. [email protected]

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Rising Gas Prices: Exploring the Impact on American Economy Discover the real reasons behind the surging gas prices in the US. Uncover the role of energy policies and their effects on inflation and crime rates. Let's dive into the facts and debunk the myths about greedy oil companies. #GasPrices2020 #EnergyPolicies #USInflation #CrimeRates #OilCompanyDebunked #EconomicImpact #AmericanEconomy #RisingFuelCosts #EnergyPolicyDebate #GasPriceFacts

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Jake Dollarhide, chief executive officer at Longbow Asset Management, an investment advisory firm, said the (ONEOK) acquisition not only expanded the Tulsa-based company's footprint beyond state borders, but will also contribute to the state's labor and energy economies. "This acquisition, EnLink Midstream's assets, places of operations ― are contiguous to the company's footprint," he said. "Obviously, EnLink's based in #Dallas, and it's quite possible some of those white-collar jobs could migrate to #Tulsa." He added that blue collar jobs would remain in EnLink's rich oil-production sites. (This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security.) CNBC CNBC Overtime CNBC International The Wall Street Journal The New York Times New York Post The University of Tulsa: Collins College of Business The University of Tulsa Tulsa Remote Rotary Club of Tulsa City of Tulsa Tulsa Regional Chamber Bloomberg Reuters University of Oklahoma Rotary International Oklahoma State University The University of Tulsa Graduate School Gathering Place Student Investment Fund The University of Tulsa Tulsa World Media Company The Oklahoman The Journal Record NYSE ICE Federal Reserve Board Federal Reserve Bank of New York YMCA of Greater Tulsa YMCA of the USA World YMCA Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 36 Degrees North Tulsa Innovation Labs Nasdaq Friends of the Katy Trail

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This is the pivotal decade to push for the Energy Transition! Getting to the first $ trillion of Cleantech investment took decades; the second trillion will take only 4 years. https://lnkd.in/gGVBpfkK

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Texas Hold ‘em Cash Games vs Buy In Tournament players and Traders who trade the firms capital vs their own!!! IMO 2 totally different types of people. And no disrespect to all the great Texas hold ‘em tourney players or traders using their firms capital Cash players….have to comfortable w having massive swings in their winnings and losses. Cash games u are literally going up against the best of the best. There is no structure your losses potentially unlimited but also your gains. The intensity of cash games is mentally exhausting. Time commitment, you must be prepared to play for very long, unpredictable amounts of time. Now traders who trade their own money. I did this for 6 grueling years. And let me tell you it was one of the most difficult periods of my life. I was fortunate enough to lose everything I had and I mean everything, EARLY in my career. Best thing that can ever happen to a trader IMO, I actually started believing my own BS! I was able somehow to convince somebody to back me and the terms were his-I get 100% of his capital back then we go 50/50. And you figure how to live that is not my problem. I bartended and took odd jobs to pay my rent and eat. It took 4 months but I got my stake back. Like I always say I want to do business with people who make a margin call when they can’t and stay clear of those who won’t when they can…well I made that margin call!! But I always felt if I could not be the best at something you should not be doing it. And I realized that I was never going to break into the top 10% of the market makers in that pit, I just was not good enough! And somebody said to me so you are quitting huh…I turned to him said what General Oliver Smith said to a reporter when asked General are you retreating??? He said “HELL, I am advancing in a difffent direction. What does this have to do w BitOoda. A whole lot!! Our 2 heads of trading, our my former bosses from that Chicago trading pit where I was forged! Forget the top 10%, they were the top 1%!! And they are the 2 best “cash” traders I know. I have said it before and I will say it again. I feel like I have Lawrence Taylor one end and Reggie White on the other! Ungar, Ivey, Chip Reese, Texas Dolly the GOATs of cash Texas hold “em. But the 1 story I want to focus is one of the most legendary in poker history. When Nick the Greek challenged the undisputed king of the day Johnny Moss (pictured below). After months of essentially continuous action where they literally did not really sleep or eat much and suffering massive losses “The Greek” turned and uttered one of the most famous quotes in poker history. “Mr. Moss, I have to let you go now”. In my next post I will discuss when Brian Hunter decided to lock horns with none other than Mr. John Arnold!! “Check, check, he trapped me!! He has alligator blood, pay that man his money, he beat me straight up” 😀 #btc #eth #derivatives #texasholdem #rounders #commodities

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Next week, I'll be exploring opportunities to add positions in oil stocks, mostly focused on Talos, and expanding my shares in AT&T. With the economy looking a bit shaky as we approach the election, it's crucial to focus on sectors with strong fundamentals. Oil commodities are likely to hold good value despite market fluctuations. On the other hand, telecommunications is a sector poised for growth. AT&T's efforts in debt reduction, the expansion of 5G technology, and the increasing demand for connectivity are promising indicators for a solid investment. Always stay on top of the trend and make informed decisions.

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Personal Inflation Calculator Go to myinflation.com to compare today versus a given date in time. CPI at 2.5% means prices are increasing on average 2.5% from last year. My Dallas family of 4 from Jan 2020 (Pre-COVID) to now has inflation up 25.3% over 4.5 years. Ouch!

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Actelis Receives New Significant Order for Major U.S. Department of Aerial Transportation Agency With this latest order for the company’s Cyber-Hardened Hybrid-Fiber Networking Solution, Actelis continues to demonstrate strong position within the transportation sector with new significant order FREMONT, Calif., Sept. 09, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Actelis Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASNS) (“Actelis” or the “Company”), a market leader in cyber-hardened, rapid deployment networking solutions for IoT applications, today announced that it has received a new significant order for a major aerial transportation agency operating underneath the umbrella of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Actelis continues to expand its presence in the transportation sector with its cyber-hardened, hybrid-fiber networking technology that is used at traffic intersections, along major highways and railways, and at international airports around the world. Please continue reading = https://lnkd.in/e43UPpq7

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New or smaller VC, PE or HF manager? AUM less than $50 million? Great Performance? Trying to raise assets? Struggling and failing?   WHY? = Poor or non-existent MARKETING PROCESS. see the data!   Despite what many new and smaller managers FIRMLY believe “performance” does not raise assets, it merely brings a degree of attention.   If it were true that “performance” was the catalyst to raise assets, many smaller managers would have little difficulty growing AUM.   Raising assets is about three (3) critical components: PEOPLE, RELATIONSHIPS & TRUST.   In fact, research shows that of the 3, "TRUST" is THE key to raise assets.   TRUST > TRADE/TRANSACTION.   This is particularly true in the current climate of “low-trust”: Investors are risk averse, stringently selective and idiosyncratically demanding.   In such an environment, raising assets is more challenging and difficult than most new and smaller sub-institutional understand. It's often only after a long period of trying to raise assets from performance with little success, that many come to realize the allocation decision by an investor is about much more than investment performance alone.   “Pitching & Posting” (performance + content) does not build TRUST. The truth is those activities undermine TRUST and do not help build relationships: NO ONE WANTS TO HEAR A “PITCH” and few read content.   With investors that are inundated with content on a daily basis, hyper-skeptical and highly-informed with access to better information to make allocation decisions, it takes a consistently “well-executed” “investor-centric” structured, focused and disciplined MARKETING PROCESS to raise assets.   However, 81% of new and smaller managers do not have a marketing process.   The lack of marketing process in the hedge fund space results in:   A. 89% NEVER reach $100 million AUM B. 76.4% ‘tap out’ their investor network within 1 year C. +50% close within 3 years of launch.   Simple: “NO MARKETING PROCESS” = “”NO SUCCESS RAISING ASSETS”. Since 2011, Johnson & Company has specialized in marketing process development and execution for "sub-institutional" managers, those with AUM less than $50 million. 25 years experience, expertise and skill uniquely equips a new or smaller manager with the information, insight, instruction and intelligence that optimizes marketing process execution to maximize the success, efficiency, economy, expedience and effectiveness of raising assets. There is a lot of BS, hype and completely wrong information about marketing and fundraising for managers with less than $50 million AUM. For smaller managers to succeed raising assets, it's mandatory to get beyond all that and get the "FACTS" and "DATA". If you’re a new or smaller manager struggling and failing to raise assets, get the "FACTS" and "DATA" here: https://johnsn.com/facts After that, if you’d like a candid, no-nonsense conversation about marketing and raising assets, contact me I welcome the opportunity. [email protected]

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